New Zealand mid-year check-in: Record production, strong prices and El Niño watch

There has been a bit of a change in market expectations surrounding the RBA cash rate in recent days, so what gives? Join RaboResearch General Manager Stefan Vogel as he speaks with Senior Market Strategist Ben Picton to unpack the latest data on the Australian economy, the likely implications for the cash rate, and what RaboResearch expects the RBA to be doing with interest rates in the months ahead. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

War in Ukraine and Russia in recent weeks heavily disrupted grain export capabilities, driving grain prices higher. General Manager RaboResearch Australia/New Zealand Stefan Vogel and Senior Analyst Jen Corkran unpack the price drivers and the options the regions have to export grains, as well as the potential for grain prices to rise further and what could cause prices to retreat again.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, Stefan Vogel sits with Michael Harvey to discuss how milk protein scarcity is reshaping Australia's dairy industry and challenging the long-term economics of its cheese-centric model.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, RaboResearch Senior Analysts David Magaña and Michael Harvey catch up to discuss the key findings from the latest Global Avocado Report. The conversation highlights a sector that continues to expand rapidly, driven by strong consumer demand, increasing international trade, and growing production capacity across multiple regions.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Attacks on Ukrainian and Russian ports have disrupted grain exports, moving grain prices up substantially. General Manager of RaboResearch – Australia/New Zealand Stefan Vogel and Senior Macro Strategist Ben Picton discuss the outlook for grains and diesel and whether China can continue to surprise global markets.    Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, Jen Corkran and Emma Higgins explore the growing dairy-beef opportunity in New Zealand. From sexed semen and genetics to calf rearing, supply chain alignment, and the new Fonterra-Silver Fern Farms programme, they discuss how better breeding decisions could unlock more value from nearly two million surplus dairy calves annually.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, Michael Harvey and Emma Higgins discuss the release of RaboResearch's World Dairy Map 2026, exploring how global dairy trade is evolving. The conversation examines why cheese has emerged as the standout growth engine of global dairy trade, the implications of China's changing import demand, and how growth opportunities are increasingly shifting toward Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, RaboResearch analyst Vítor Pistóia takes listeners around the country to assess current crop conditions and the outlook for the 2026/27 season. While a delayed seasonal break and persistent dryness across parts of the East Coast raised early concerns, recent rainfall has greatly improved conditions in many key growing regions. With adequate crop establishment, improved soil moisture reserves, and production prospects on the rise, Australia is shaping up for another solid season, assuming El Niño remains at bay.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Emma Higgins and Jen Corkran review New Zealand's agricultural outlook, highlighting record dairy production, strong beef and lamb prices, and improving farm profitability. They discuss global supply and demand trends, ongoing fertiliser and input cost pressures, and the growing likelihood of El Niño conditions shaping production risks and opportunities.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, RaboResearch analysts Vítor Pistóia and Angus Gidley-Baird discuss the latest developments in global fertiliser markets, exploring why nitrogen prices remain under pressure amid improving supply while phosphate and potash markets continue to be supported by tighter fundamentals.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.