Will U.S. Allies Hedge? Should They?

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America's allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States?   Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore.    Show Links:   James M. Lindsay, "Will US Allies Succeed in Hedging Against the United States?", Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026. Shayan Sardarizadeh, X feed. Emmanuel Macron, Speech on France's Nuclear Deterrence, March 4, 2026. "At Last, Reasons to be Cheerful about European Tech," The Economist, March 1, 2026. Henry J. Gomez, "Vance's anti-war posture collides with his more hawkish views on Iran," NBC News, March 3, 2026. Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, "Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran," Financial Times, March 3, 2026 Flight 93 National Memorial (U.S. National Park Service)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Trump's proposal for a Golden Fleet of new American "battleships." They question the strategic logic, timelines, cost estimates, and political dynamics behind the proposal. Chris commends USA Hockey for its gold medal performance at the Olympics while Melanie questions Eileen Gu's comments there and Zack expresses appreciation for the Supreme Court's tariff decision.   Show Links:   Eli Rosenberg, "Who is US women's hockey star Megan Keller? A BC alum, and more," NBC Connecticut, February 19, 2026. Christopher A. Preble and Celia Clark, "The Brooklyn Navy Yard revived | 12 | A defense conversion case study," 2016. Sam Mercoliagno, X post, February 22, 2026. Ben Jensen, "Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail," CSIS, January 9, 2026.   Fighting Instructions, US Navy, February 9, 2026.   Carline Downey, "Alysa Liu Is a Spunky, Gen Z National Treasure and a Force of American Athleticism," National Review, February 21, 2026. Sean Gregory, "'I Don't Believe in Limits': How Eileen Gu Became Freestyle Skiing's Biggest Star," Time, January 22, 2026. Trent Hone, "Why the U.S. Navy Doesn't Build Battleships Anymore," War on the Rocks, January 12, 2026. Mark Cancian, "The Golden Fleet's Battleship Will Never Sail," CSIS, December 23, 2025. U.S. Navy, "Webpage currently under construction," accessed February 24, 2026. Ellen Nakashima et al., "Tulsi Gabbard's appearances at Fulton County FBI raid raises questions," Washington Post, January 30, 2026 Zack Cooper, "Asia After America," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026  

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss a recent Council on Foreign Relations special report which explores varies grand strategies, and proposes an alternative known as "Resolute Global Leadership." Is this strategy realistic? Does it accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives? And what did the report leave out, or fail to develop adequately, to ensure that it will succeed where others failed? Grievances for what Jeff Bezos has done to the Washington Post, to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their doomsday clock, and to Donald Trump for weighing in on the Japanese parliamentary elections in favor of Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party. Attas to Takaichi for her stunning and unprecedented victory, to Javier Milei for turning around Argentina's economy, and to Anduril's Palmer Luckey for admitting that the Pentagon spends too much on the wrong stuff.   Show Links:   America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership, Council on Foreign Relations, January 2026 Monica Pitrelli and Sydney Goh, U.S. can spend billions less on defense, says Anduril Industries founder, CNBC, February 6, 2026 Benjamin Mullin, Katie Robertson and Erik Wemple, Washington Post Cuts More Than 300 Jobs, The New York Times, February 4, 2026 Commission on the National Defense Strategy Jack Butler, "A Doomsday Crock," Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026. 

Zack, Melanie, and special guest Kelly Grieco take a look at the Department of War's 2026 National Defense Strategy. What does a "decent peace" with China look like? Is that what China wants? What does the document get right and wrong about burden-sharing among allies and partners? Will this strategy actually help deliver the "peace through strength" that is so important to this administration? Zack has an atta for the foreign affairs reporters at the Washington Post, Kelly has an atta for the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots, and Melanie has even more grievances for the administration's chaotic tariff policies.    Show Links:   National Defense Strategy, Department of War, January 2026. Editorial Board, "Trump's Tariffs Can't Cover a Bill This Staggering," Washington Post, January 26, 2026. Friedrich Merz, Speech at the World Economic Forum, January 23, 2026. Jim Geraghty, "Tearing Apart NATO, Over a Trinket," January 20, 2026.

Fresh off the shock of the U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, the Net Assessment team debates the merits of the operation and what it means for Venezuela's future. They also discuss why it caught (some of) them off guard, and what it implies about the Trump administration's decision-making going forward. Chris also questions Trump's proposed defense budget increase, Melanie gives Denmark a badly needed attaboy, and Zack critiques Pete Hegseth's punishment of Mark Kelly. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Emma Salisbury, "The Trump-Class Battleship," Behind the Front, January 8, 2026. Leo Shane III, "The 5 Republicans who voted against Trump on Venezuela," Politico, January 8, 2026. Eric Boehm, "Did Marco Rubio Lie to Congress About Venezuela?" Reason, January 5, 2026. Matthew Cullen, "Trump Said His Global Power Was Limited Only by His 'Own Morality'," New York Times, January 8, 2026. "TCS: President Trump's $1.5 Trillion Budget Proposal Must Be Rejected," Taxpayers for Common Sense, January 7, 2026.                                                                                             "$1.5 Trillion Military Budget Would Add $5.8 Trillion to Debt Over Decade," Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, January 7, 2026. Stephen Collinson, "Trump's new US mission statement: Strength, force, power," CNN, January 6, 2026. David E. Sanger et al., "Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by 'My Own Morality'," New York Times, January 8, 2026.      

In this special bonus episode, the Net Assessment crew – Chris, Melanie, and Zack - looks back on the highs (and lows) of 2025, and makes a few predictions for 2026. Thanks all around to our listeners, the Stimson Center, and University FM for their fantastic production.   Show Links:   Hadeel al-Salchi, "Search for Body of Last Hostage Held by Hamas in Gaza is Delayed Due to Bad Weather," NPR, December 16, 2025. "Armitage's Story," Last Days in Vietnam, PBS. Justin Bronk, "America's Drone Delusion," Foreign Affairs, December 15, 2025. Christopher Clary, "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025," Stimson Center May 28, 2025. Zack Cooper, "Trump's Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment," The American Enterprise, March 5, 2025. The Daily, "Were the Covid Lockdowns Worth It?", March 20, 2025.  Aude Darnal and Christopher Preble, "Conventional Wisdom: The War on Terror Is Over," in "Testing Assumptions About US Foreign Policy in 2025," Stimson Center, February 14, 2025. Jeffrey Friedman, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," Texas National Security Review (Vol 8, Iss 4, Fall 2025, 34-48), https://doi.org/10.1353/tns.00011. Jonathan Guyer, "Donald Trump's Cowboy Diplomacy," The New York Times, December 15, 2025. "In Pursuit of Peace: The Life and Legacy of Barry Blechman," Stimson Center, September 29, 2025.          Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, "Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign Policy After Primacy," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. Aaron Maclean, "A Warning to the Young: Just Say No to AI," Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Michael Nienaber, "Germany Powers Ahead With Record Push for Military Buildup," Bloomberg, December 17, 2025. Persuasion, "Frances Lee and Stephen Macedo on Why Institutions Failed During Covid," May 17, 2025.  Christopher Preble, X, 1:55 am, October 18,2025. "Prediction Is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels," Net Assessment, October 2, 2025. Joanna Stern, "We Let AI Run Our Office Vending Machine. It Lost Hundreds of Dollars," Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2025.  "Sweden Plans Largest Military Buildup Since the Cold War Amid Russia Threat and Uncertain US-EU Ties," AP, March 26, 2025. "What's the Plan for AI?", Net Assessment, August 7, 2025. Nancy A. Youssef, "So This Is What 'America First' Looks Like," The Atlantic, December 11, 2025.   

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack look at U.S. policy toward China. What does the United States, that is Donald Trump, want from China? What should the Trump administration be willing to compromise on to get it? And what does Trump need that China would be willing to give up? Grievances for President Trump's tasteless social media post following the murder of Rob and Michele Reiner; for those who bet on war (and rig the maps to win); and for the Pentagon's attacks on Sen. (and retired Navy Captain) Mark Kelly for daring to suggest that people in the military shouldn't follow unlawful orders. Speaking of unlawful orders, attas to Sen. Kelly and others calling out the Trump admin's dubious case for striking boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Plus a shout out for reporters covering the Trump administration, who manage to break news despite the hurdles.   Show Links:   Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, "Trump vs China is taking a turn," Washington Post, December 16, 2025. Lily Kuo, "From Chips to Security, China Is Getting Much of What It Wants From the U.S.," New York Times, December 12, 2025. Saif Khan, Tao Burga, Tim Fist, and Georgia Adamson, "Should the US Sell Hopper Chips to China?" Institute for Progress, December 7, 2025. Nick Cleveland-Stout, "Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout," Responsible Statecraft, December 11, 2025. Al Weaver and Filip Timotija, "Senate GOP Grows Uneasy as Pentagon's Kelly Escalates,"  The Hill, December 17, 2025. Jonathan Gilbert, "China Buys Rare Argentine Wheat Cargo as Milei Trims Tariffs," Bloomberg, December 14, 2025. Alan Beattie, "Donald Trump Stiffs Farmers and China Stiffs Donald Trump," Financial Times, December 15, 2025. Susannah Savage, "Donald Trump's Tariffs Intensify Strain on US Farmers, Deere Warns," Financial Times, December 10, 2025. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie take a look at the Trump administration's newly-released US National Security Strategy. Is it a coherent strategy? How will diplomacy, military might, and economic power be developed and deployed to advance American interests? Will the strategy usher in a new Golden Age, and "make America safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before," as the President claims in the preface?   Chris has a grievance for the inability of the Navy to design and produce small surface combatants, Zack is pleased with Congress asserting itself in the new NDAA, and Melanie has shoutouts for three friends who are moving on to new adventures in their lives.   Show Links:   National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The White House, November 2025. Matt Jamison, "Why I Declined Brigade Command," LinkedIn, December 2, 2025. Bryan McGrath, "The End of This Road," Substack, December 1, 2025.  Sam LaGrone, "Navy Cancels Constellation-class Frigate Program, Considering Small New Surface Combatants," USNI News, November 25, 2025.  Evan Cooper, The Power of US Cultural Diplomacy, Stimson Center, December 2, 2025.  Sam LaGrone, "Navy Cancels Constellation-class Frigate Program, Considering Small New Surface Combatants," USNI News, November 25, 2025.  Evan Cooper, The Power of US Cultural Diplomacy, Stimson Center, December 2, 2025.   

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Oren Cass's recent article articulating a "Grand Strategy of Reciprocity." Cass argues that the United States should build a bloc of countries that agree to engage with each other on comparable terms while jointly excluding others that will not fulfill the same obligations. Is this possible or realistic? And how does it align with the Trump administration's approach? Meanwhile, Chris commends the Eurasia Group's Institute for Global Affairs, Melanie criticizes Chinese entities purchasing properties near critical US installations, and Zack laments a fundamental misreading of game theory by Scott Bessent.   Show Links:   Oren Cass, "A Grant Strategy of Reciprocity," Foreign Affairs, November/December 2025. Scott Bessent, "It's time to end the filibuster," Washington Post, November 23, 2025. Nate Jones, "State Department erases 15 pages of nuclear history — with no warning," Washington Post, November 13, 2025. Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Eloise Cassier, Ransom Miller, "Reckless Peacemaker?" Institute for Global Affairs, November 6, 2025 Chris Mason and Becky Morton, "UK Expected to Approve Plans for Chinese Mega Embassy," BBC, November 21, 2025. Philip Lenczycki, "US Nuclear Bomber Fleet Shares Fence With Trailer Park Linked To Chinese Intel-Tied Fraudster," Daily Caller, November 10, 2025.   Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/  

Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting on human rights abuses, to the Department of Defense's new plan for facilitating foreign arms sales, and to Congress for the pointless government shutdown. Attas to Norway for realizing that Chinese-made electric vehicles are vulnerable to hacking, to Paul Kelly for realizing the John Lennon's "Imagine" is a terrible song, to the Supreme Court and some members of Congress for appearing to resist Trump's executive overreach (finally!), and to the nation's veterans on the occasion of their annual official holiday. Show Links: Missy Ryan, Vivian Salama, Michael Scherer, and Nancy A. Youssef, "Why Venezuela?" The Atlantic, November 6, 2025 Matthew Kroenig, "Trump Should Oust Maduro," Foreign Policy, November 7, 2025 Justin Logan and Lawrence Montreuil, "Don't Repeat Libya: The Dangers of US Intervention in Venezuela," Cato at Liberty, October 31, 2025 Alexander B. Downes and Lindsey A. O'Rourke, "The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela," Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2025 Dan Grazier, "Hegseth Wants to Make the Pentagon a Global Arms Bazaar," Responsible Statecraft, November 6, 2025 Brett Samuels, "Trump: 'I Doubt' US Going to War with Venezuela, but Maduro's Days are Numbered," The Hill, November 3, 2025.  Augusta Saraiva, "Trump's Move on Venezuela Splinters Region over Possible Strike," Bloomberg, November 1, 2025  "Norway Transport Firm Step Up Controls after Tests Show Chinese-Made Buses Can Be Halted Remotely," AP, November 5, 2025." Nadeem Badshad, "Counter-Terror Police Investigate Claim UK University Halted Research After Chinese Pressure," The Guardian, November 3, 2025.