Trade Links (episode 10): The Iran war: what will peace look like?

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined again by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore an unprecedented scenario in global trade: what happens when both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are compromised at the same time? With escalating tensions in the Middle East and warnings from the Houthi movement, the team considers the far-reaching consequences for energy, food security and global supply chains. They also talk about Donald Trump’s delayed China trip, and how energy security and supply chain resilience will likely overshadow traditional trade topics like tariffs and soybeans.Lastly, they ask the dreaded question: What’s on the Trade Links radar?Clue: fertiliser shortages impacting Brazil and India, potential pressure on Cuba from the US, and rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify.This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026. 

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to unpack the political and economic forces shaping global trade deals and the evolving role of the World Trade Organization (WTO).Key Topics:India’s Trade Deal Blitz: Comparing India’s agreements with the EU, UK, and US – from comprehensive free trade deals to targeted strategic partnerships.Politics vs. Economics: How deals are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, including the impact of US tariffs and India’s Russian oil imports.WTO at a Crossroads: Assessing the organisation’s diminished influence, its historical contribution to global trade, and what a “minimum viable” WTO could look like in a fragmented trade landscape.The Rise of Trade Clubs: Emergence of mini-lateral agreements and managed trade arrangements replacing the old multi-lateral structure.What’s Next: Integration opportunities for India, supply chain diversification for Western economies, and the potential shift in defence and geopolitical alignments.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

As Trade Links returns in 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by our regular panel of experts, Aastha Gupta (European Economist, Economics and Market Strategy) and Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) to talk trade and the international backdrop. It’s been a dramatic start to the year, so naturally the discussion focuses on US intervention in Venezuela and that most perennial of trade topics… oil. What are the impacts on the region immediately, and longer term?The discussion then turns towards sanctions, and their efficacy in a highly interconnected world – looking at Russia, Iran and South Africa as examples. Can supply chains become sanction proof?Lastly, the panel shares developments that the world may have overlooked, at the time of recording. Since then, of course, everything might have changed.  Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify.This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026.President Trump quoted from press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPpd8AJwGlYAll details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this Trade Links special, host Tim Phillips is joined by guests Aastha Gupta, Scott Livingstone and Ross Walker to talk about what lies ahead in 2026. There's a lot to ponder as global trade tilts towards resilience away from cost efficiency in supply chains, and geopolitically, the world is rearming at pace. So it's good news that the economy is so rosy. Well, maybe not.With topics ranging from national technology competition and rare earths to protectionism and import price inflation, trade in 2026 really is a case of everything, everywhere, all at once. Luckily, the Trade Links panel knows where to look next.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events shaping how the world trades.This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This time, host Tim Phillips is joined by regular guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to talk about the world's most vital trade routes – from what goes through them to what happens around them. They also discuss potential new trade routes and which countries may lay claim to them, as well as discuss that age old question: what issues are being overlooked, but which might be on all of our lips by the time of the next episode?Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify.This episode was recorded on 1 October 2025.

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips reunites with regular NatWest panelists Aastha Gupta, European Economist, and Scott Livingstone, International Advisor. They delve into the recent EU-US trade deal, announced at Turnberry Golf Course on 27 July 2025, exploring its implications on global economics, geopolitics, and sector-specific impacts.Key points:The deal: Aastha explains the framework agreement, including a 15% tariff ceiling on key EU exports and a €750bn EU commitment to US energy products.Winners and losers: Insights into sector-specific impacts, such as benefits to US energy and EU automotive industries, and challenges for EU steel and agriculture.Geopolitical Analysis: Scott explores the strategic motivations behind the deal and its influence on EU-US relations.Economic impact: Estimations of the deal’s effect on EU’s GDP growth and trade elasticity.Future uncertainties: Pending issues around digital economy regulations, defence spending, and EU-China-US dynamics.And... With the Sibos payments and trade conference nearly upon us, Tim chats with Lee McNab, NatWest's Head of Group Payments Strategy. They discuss the future of global payments, the role of stablecoins, blockchain and AI in reducing trade friction, and the interplay of regulation and innovation.This episode was recorded on 27 August.All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

While Aastha and Scott are on their much-deserved summer breaks, Tim Phillips speaks to Naresh Aggarwal (Associate Director Policy & Technical at the Association of Corporate Treasurers) and Rowan Austin (Head of Trade Finance Origination & Advisory at NatWest) in this special episode. Both treasury and trade finance functions are on the front line of balancing risk management and growth. Get it wrong and you're facing funding shortfalls, regulatory breaches, delayed shipments and unexpected losses. So, how do we get it right? And what risks should we be looking ahead to in the near to medium-term.Our guests share their views, as well as make some predictions for what businesses might be overlooking. Please check out and subscribe to our channels on: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id/podcast/natwest-trade-links/id1819914204Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/22tvckJbiWWRbqcCnyFsICThis episode was recorded on 31 July 2025. 

This month, Tim Phillips is joined by regular guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to delve into the intricacies of the global tech trade. They unravel the complexities of supply chains, the strategic importance of rare earth elements, and the geopolitical tensions shaping today’s trade landscape.Semiconductors may be the new oil, but what about the old oil? They also talk about OPEC, peak oil demand and revenue, and the status of petrodollars presently and in the years to come. Lastly, the mix of good and bad: what to make of Middle East politics and the potential for further trade tussles?Please check out and subscribe to our channels on: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id/podcast/natwest-trade-links/id1819914204Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/22tvckJbiWWRbqcCnyFsICThis episode was recorded on 1 July 2025.

Tim Phillips returns with regular NatWest guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to talk trade. This time, they focus on the super big questions: how is the very nature of trade evolving and whether the era of globalisation is nearing an end?They also discuss:• Trade Patterns: Trade volumes, particularly in services and digital trade, are still increasing, but supply chains are becoming more regional and complex.• Regional trade blocs: How the world is shifting from a single regime to a multi-polar, bloc-based system influenced by political alignment and strategic interests.• Security concerns and the weather in Helsinki.• Plus, what wrong-footed them last-time: the free trade agreement signed between the UK and India.To read Aastha's latest Trade Tracker, click here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/finance/trade-tracker-uk-trade-deals-in-focus.html This episode was recorded on 2 June 2025All details correct at time of recording.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Welcome to Trade Links, your go-to podcast for data-driven analysis of global trade trends and pivotal developments in international relations. Designed for international businesses looking to navigate the complexities of the global market, Trade Links brings you expert commentary, in-depth discussions, and the latest updates that shape the world of trade. Each month, host Tim Phillips will be joined by NatWest's Aastha Gupta (European Economist) and Scott Livingstone (International Adviser) to discuss different topics relevant to international trade. Details accurate at the time of recording (6 May 2025).