57. Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | Cockroach Strategy (Part 2)

In this second episode of the Cockroach Series, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) delve into the intricacies of sequencing risk and its profound impact on portfolio construction. They explore concepts like expected value, ergodicity, and the importance of return order on investment outcomes. Whether you're planning for retirement or just starting your investment journey, this discussion offers valuable insights on how to navigate and mitigate the unpredictability of financial markets. Please see our Insights Page for blog posts featuring notes from the Cockroach Approach whitepaper. Additionally, you can access the Cockroach Approach summary and download your own copy of the whitepaper!

In this episode, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) embark on the first of a series discussing the Cockroach Strategy. They are excited to share insights into the decade-long development of this strategy. Jason and Taylor explore the probabilities of loss over extended time horizons, shedding light on often overlooked aspects of investment planning. They also discuss real returns and the influence of global economic trends on investment outcomes. The discussion kicks off with an exploration of stocks, the cornerstone of the Cockroach Strategy, setting the stage for a deeper dive into its principles and construction. Please see our Insights Page for blog posts featuring notes from the Cockroach Approach whitepaper. Additionally, you can access the Cockroach Approach summary and download your own copy of the whitepaper!

We are excited to introduce a new addition to our suite of investment strategies - The Defense Strategy. It combines Mutiny Fund's Volatility Strategy and Commodity Trend Strategy. The Volatility Strategy is designed to act as a so-called 'black swan' investment, achieving asymmetric gains in times of high volatility or tail risk (e.g. March 2020). The Commodity Trend Strategy is designed to profit during inflationary periods (e.g. 2022) as well as during extended 'crisis periods' for stocks and bonds (e.g. 2008). In combining these two exposures, the Defense Strategy seeks to achieve flat to slightly positive returns during positive periods for stock and bond portfolios while providing its most significant returns in periods of equity market drawdowns or high inflation. The Defense Strategy is part of the holistic Cockroach Strategy and is intended as a diversifier to be combined with offensive assets in an investor's portfolio such as stocks, bonds, and private equity. In this podcast, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) talk through how and why we developed the Defense Strategy and the role we believe it can serve in investors' portfolios.

In this episode, I talk with Kris Abdelmessih, Volatility Trader and also the Author of Moontower Weekly. Kris has been actively involved in options trading for 21 years. His background encompasses commencing his journey within the trading pits alongside SIG, establishing his personal market-making team, and overseeing the commodities book for a distinguished volatility manager. We talk about: Adverse Selection Discretionary Edge? Manager Fee Alpha Confidence Intervals Life Optionality and more! This podcast was recorded at the Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by Collective. Collective is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing.  I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Kris as much as I did!

In this episode, I talk with Robert Mullin from Marathon Resource Advisors.  Robert is a finance professional with 25+ years of experience managing natural resource investment portfolios for individuals, family offices and institutions.  We talk about: State of commodity producers Tangential investing ideas Problems in Europe Yield farming and more!  This podcast was recorded at the stunning Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by Collective. Collective is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing.  I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Robert as much as I did!

In this episode, I have the privilege of engaging in a captivating conversation with two distinguished guests. First, we have PJ Pierre, the Vice President of Trading and Portfolio Management at Denali Asset Management. Joining us alongside PJ is Zed Francis, the esteemed co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Convexitas. Topics:  Are any banks solvent? Insure all deposits? Start a bank? Debt Ceiling Trades? Jubilee, reset, revolt...choose wisely and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with PJ & Zed as much as I did!    

Didn't get the chance to head to Vegas for the Global EQD conference. No worries. We've got you covered in Part II of the Global EQD '23 Breakdown. We're teaming up with RCM Managing Partner and host of The Derivative Podcast, Jeff Malec. Together, Jeff and Jason walk through their notes from attending the annual equity derivatives-focused conference put on by the good folks at EQD. Make sure to head over to www.eqderivatives.com and signup for their official notes. Meanwhile, they go deep on many topics, from accessing commodity markets and traders in China, addressing liquidity concerns on execution desks, and exploring the nuances between variable annuities and index-linked annuity products.  Jason and Jeff delve into alternative correlated hedges with cheaper volatility, examine volatility strategies in ETFs, and analyze the role of leverage in finance. Jason also shares his hot takes on various topics, including the allure of Las Vegas to the fascinating world of greenflation and energy, where wind farms and Dr. Copper play a significant role. No EQD stone is left unturned — SEND IT! P.S. Head to Jeff's Derivative Podcast to catch up on part I of the Global EQD '23 Breakdown. https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2023/06/global-eqd-23-breakdown-with-jason-buck-part-1/

In this episode I talk with writer, author, DJ, and speaker, Jared Dillian. Jared's newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We're Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture and music. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries (2024). In his spare time, Jared is a progressive house DJ and speaks frequently on mental health issues at financial institutions. We talk about:  Bet on Winners USD F.I.R.E. Play the Tuba! Cargo Shorts and more!  I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Jared as much as I did!

In this episode I talk with Dr. David Rhoiney, a Robotic Surgeon, Cryptologist, Cyber security specialist and the list continues! We talk about:  Unconscious Greatness Strategy That Fits  HENRYs Banks/RIA for the People Bad Food Takes and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did!

In this episode I talk with Tobias Carlisle, founder and managing director of Acquirers Funds, LLC. He serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy. Tobias is the creator of The Acquirer's Multiple®. He is also the author of the books The Acquirer's Multiple (2017),  Concentrated Investing (2016), Deep Value (2014), and Quantitative Value (2012). Tobias has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. We discuss: SVB What is Money? Invincible Businesses History as a Guide Behavior is Water Ergodicity in all Things and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Tobias as much as I did!