The Outlook for Banking Systems Amid Trade Tensions, Economic Risks

Transferring credit risk via these mostly fully collateralized transactions moderately reduces capital needs, though the deals are opaque and there is some concentration risk. Speakers: Farooq Khan, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsHost: Danielle Reed, VP-Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Banks – United States of America: Credit risk transfer use should remain modest, but investor concentration is high 6 May 2025Banks – Europe: SRTs to support bank capital despite concentration and regulatory scrutiny 6 May 2025

We talk with Sabih Behzad of Deutsche Bank about how the bank is using blockchain technology and what’s ahead for digital transformation of the broader banking industry. Speakers: Sabih Behzad, Head of Digital Assets and Currencies Transformation, Deutsche Bank; Cristiano Ventricelli, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings  Related Research:Digital Economy – Cross Region: Tokenization could boost liquidity for alternative assetsDigital Economy – Cross Region: Digital custodians gain traction, despite risks 

Credit conditions are holding steady across most banking systems globally despite the potential for trade disputes to weaken GDP and business investment, hurting borrower health and profitability.  Host: Danielle Reed, VP - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings  Guests: Effie Tsotsani, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; David Tao, AVP - Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; C.J. Wong, AVP - Analyst, Moody’s Ratings 

We talk to Animoca Brands about digital innovation, stablecoins, and how collaborations among institutions, companies and regulators are pushing Web3 -- the decentralized internet -- into the mainstream. Speakers: Evan Auyang, Group President - Animoca Brands; Cristiano Ventricelli - VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHost: Danielle Reed, VP - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings 

We talk to Sandip Wadje of BNP Paribas about the risks of digital technology, and how banks are balancing innovation and digital transformation against their security and compliance needs.Speakers: Sandip Wadje, Managing Director – Global Head of Emerging Technology Risks, BNP Paribas; Lucas Viegas, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHost: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

We discuss the outlooks for digital finance and cybersecurity. Tokenization and digital assets will gain traction. Meanwhile, cyberattacks will likely be more frequent and more personalized.Speakers: Cristiano Ventricelli, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Leroy Terrelonge, VP-Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings; Carolyn Henson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Digital Economy – Global: 2025 Outlook – Institutions to edge further into digital finance, focus on risk mitigationCybersecurity – Global: 2025 Outlook - Credit risk set to rise as cyber attackers target larger companies

Solid GDP growth in most markets and low unemployment will support finance companies’ profitability and ease asset risks. Moderating inflation will improve most companies’ ability to issue debt.Speaker: Bruno Baretta, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHost: Michael Porta, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Finance Companies — Global: 2025 Outlook – Stable with solid economic activity and easing inflation in most markets

Higher interest rates and a favorable macroeconomic environment are among the factors supporting credit strength for insurers worldwide.Speakers: Vincent Del Gatto, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Will Keen-Tomlinson, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsRelated research:Life Insurance – Global: 2025 Outlook – Stable on largely favorable macroeconomic conditions, strong capitalProperty & Casualty Insurance – Global: 2025 Outlook - changed to stable as price increases offset rising claims costs

Analysts from Moody's Ratings discuss key outlook drivers including slower economic growth, low interest rates, weak credit demand and ongoing effects of distress in the property sector.  Speakers: Kelly Chen, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Frank Yuen, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings; Simin Ngai, AVP-Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related content: Financial Institutions – China: 2025 Outlook - Negative on profitability pressures and elevated asset risks

We discuss what’s behind our shift to a stable outlook for banking globally in 2025 from our negative outlook in 2024, and unpack some regional differences.Speakers: David Yin, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Maria Cabanyes, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; David Tao, AVP-Analyst at Moody's RatingsHost: Jun Yang, AVP-Research Writer at Moody's RatingsRelated research:Banks – Global: 2025 Outlook - Improves to stable, underpinned by stabilizing economic growth