Schaeffer's Timpane: Bears' 'lost opportunity' should let the market grind higher

Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market isn't looking like it will make dramatic moves before the end of the year, but he does expect a "small correction." Because he believes that the underpinnings for the economy are solid and forces like the artificial intelligence boom are backstopping the market, he expects that correction to be a buying opportunity for investors. Tani Fukui, senior director for global economic and market strategy for MetLife Investment Management, says she expects the Federal Reserve to follow through with rate cuts — even as the market seemed to waver in its confidence in cuts on Thursday — and that the move and the coming rate-cut cycle will help the U.S. economy avoid a recession. Josh Duitz, global head of income for Aberdeen — manager of the Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund — talks about where he is finding success in generating elevated income at a time when rate cuts are making it harder for investors to earn easy yields. Duitz discusses international investing and whether the rally overseas can continue in the face of reduced currency impacts, where high-flyers like the Magnificent Seven stocks fit in with his portfolio (or don't), and which sectors he is finding most attractive right now. Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, discusses her recent piece on what the release of new tax brackets for 2026 means for investors who are considering Roth IRA conversions. Pinsker notes that the bracket changes will change the math, especially for people who were on the fence about whether a conversion could be worthwhile.

Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, posed 100 personal finance questions to Google AI and came away with 37 "misleading or inaccurate" answers, and while that sounds horrible, it actually represents an improvement of six percentage points over the results Farrington got making the same queries a year ago. Farrington notes that the outcomes are only as good as the inputs, meaning that consumers who don't know the right questions to ask will be more poorly served by artificial intelligence than those who know enough to ask solid questions. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, discusses "Retirement Throughout the Ages: The American Middle Class," which showed that U.S. adults earning between $50,000 and $199,999 annually are struggling to stay afloat and get ahead when it comes to retirement planning.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to mid-cap stocks with momentum as he makes an offering from Invesco his ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck tackles the subject of 50-year mortgages and how the real problem with the idea may be more on how it addresses housing affordability — or not — rather than the massive amounts of extra interest paid over the life of the ultra-long loans.

Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, says that the stock market has ridden earnings growth to the record highs it has set this year, but she is worried that with valuations at high levels, earnings growth can't sustain higher price-earnings multiple to push the market up further. Guild notes that Robinhood's customers have changed some of their investment habits as market conditions have evolved in the post-Covid market; they're still buying dips, but more on a single-name basis rather than buying broad markets and riding indexes. Further, Guild says she will be watching investor buying behavior during dips to see if there is a fatigue point where their nerves about possible downturns make it that each decline no longer appears to clients like a buying opportunity. Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2025 Household Debt Survey, which showed that high inflation is contributing to rising debt levels in nearly 60% of American households, where more than two in five respondents expect household debt levels to increase in the next 12 months. Plus, Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, brings his stock-evaluation system to the Market Call.

Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says the stock market is entering "the most bullish season of the year," and the bears missed the chance for a big pullback once the market got past mid-October. Now he expects the market to grind higher for the rest of the year, but he notes that things may change once the holiday buzz changes and 2026 moves forward. Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at Robertson Stephens, says that rate cuts will make cash less attractive, which will push a lot of money that has been on the sidelines up the risk spectrum, and he discusses the areas of the bond market that he thinks are poised to benefit from that moving money, as well as the market sectors that he thinks will have leadership in a market that will be up against slowing economic activity. In the Market Call, Peter Krull, director of sustainable investing, for Earth Equity Advisors — author of the new book, "The Sustainable Investor: Responsible, Impactful, and Values-Driven Investing Strategies and Practices for Financial Professionals" — talks about investing within one's values ad how he decides which stocks make that cut for him

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs several commodity specific ETFs, like the Teucrium Soybean fund — says that while tariffs are being blamed for high prices for goods like coffee, cocoa, beef and more, it's actually the weather and long droughts in certain key growing areas that have steadily increased prices over several years. Still, Gilberties says tariffs have had an undeniable impact, some of it negative — with trading partners losing trust in the United States — some of it positive, because commodities are still moving around world markets. He says that investors who can stomach the volatility should be leaning into the headlines for opportunities, rather than fearing bad news impacts. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that tech giants are using mountains of cash to develop and build opportunities in artificial intelligence, but he notes that such huge spending can't go on forever while waiting for the payoff, and he identifies Amazon, Meta and Oracle as three of the big players who may not have the capital to win what he calls "the A.I. arms race." In the Market Call, Mark Travis, president and chief executive officer at Intrepid Capital Management, talks about how he looks "for businesses that people need" — like beer, shoes and underwear — but at the right price and discounted cash flow to be consistent, long-term gainers.

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a rebound in 2027. Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, discusses the struggles he sees for the economy right now, noting that many of the numbers that purport to show strength are not as clear or powerful as they seem. As a result, he thinks "we're in a slow-growth phase for the economy, and that's likely to persist at least for the next six months." Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Seth Brufsky, chief executive officer for the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund, talks about how the start of rate cuts and a falling interest rate environment impacts high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, noting that rate-cut times are where active managers can show their mettle by making moves that outperform passive strategies in delivering high current income levels.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says he wouldn't mind a small market setback or breather to calm the nerves, especially because he's used those kinds of moments this year to add to his equity positions, noting that his target for the Standard & Poor's 500 is 7,500 at the end of 2026, a modest but steady gain for next year. Wren favors financials currently for technical reasons, likes industrials for as long as the next decade, and made the strong case for utilities and energy providers as being the growth story for the next quarter century. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi changes things up with the ETF of the Week. Rather than focusing on one fund, he looks at ETF in-flows, which have surpassed a big landmark and will break records for the year. He looks at where all of that money has been flowing, which categories and funds have been the most popular and emerging and more. Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds — who was on the show last week doing the Market Call — returns to discuss his new book, "Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking," which in some ways equates deep-value investing to fighting a battle, but which also helps to explain why the investment style resonates with many individual investors.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says "people are only going to pay so much for this market," which means that something besides price will have to attract continued investment. That source will be earnings, as Ceci says that strong earnings growth has powered the market this year and will carry it for as long as they stay strong. Ceci says the economy and market will get a boost moving forward from tax policies, the rate-cutting cycle, continued AI capital spending and more, which is keeping the risk of recession low for the next year. Wayne Park, chief executive officer at Manulife John Hancock Retirement, discusses the firm's inaugural Longevity Preparedness Index (done in conjunction with MIT AgeLab), a new benchmark for measuring the readiness of American consumers to live well in older age. The measure looks beyond finances, which is why higher incomes don't improve some overall scores for issues like personal care. In all, the index found that Americans are largely underprepared for living out their retirement, landing a D grade with an average score of 60. Plus, Ardal Loh-Gronager of Loh-Gronager Partners returns to the show after last week's appearance in the Market Call to discuss his recent book, "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing."

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset investments at Westwood Holdings Group, says that a stock market that has averaged a 17% annualized gain for well over a decade "is not the equity environment that my dad knew," but while over-sized gains make investors worry that trouble must lie ahead, he thinks the market will roll on for as long as earnings continue to grow. Helfert says there's about a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, enough to worry about -- and to prompt investors to diversify -- but not enough to head to the sidelines. With the stock market keeps flirting with record highs, Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, talks about a column he wrote recently for MarketWatch in which he noted that peaking markets don't actually make it any easier on money managers trying to pick winners. Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, details the hard dynamics and impossible decisions she faced when she became financial caretaker for her mom. Pinsker's book, "My Mother's Money: A Guide to Financial Caretaking," is out today and it contains lessons not only for those who will take over affairs for parents, but for seniors who don't want to leave a burden to their children. (Bonus: You will learn the importance of making sure your financial accounts have a "trusted contact.")

Jim Carroll, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth — known as the "Vixologist" on X — says that the Trump Administration is living up to the idea that it can "Make Volatility Great Again," as seen by record stock markets, but notes that the actions have raised uncertainty and made investors nervous. He says the stock market and economy are still "fussing around" with tariffs and other geo-political risks that could send the market for a loop, and says investors should be protecting themselves against a correction, though he notes that movement could be a steep decline in prices or a long period of sideways. David Trainer, president of New Constructs puts another electric-vehicle maker in the Danger Zone, noting that while he dislikes a lot of the metrics for the industry, this company has been a stinker before and is poised to crater again, even as it has rebounded from huge past losses to gain more than 66 percent this year. Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of investment group at Ariel Investments — manager of the Ariel Focus Fund — brings his focused value investing style to the Market Call.  Plus, Chuck discusses the results of his annual Halloween "Cash or Candy, Trade or Treat" experience with the kids, where he gave away two big jackpots and a lot of candy, but double-disappointed a few of the trick-or-treaters.