What the Iran war means for Ukraine

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and senior policy fellow, to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort. What began as cautious optimism in Kyiv has turned into concern, as American military resources—especially air-defence systems—are redirected to the Middle East, leaving Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian attacks.Mark and Jana also explore the broader geopolitical fallout: stalled diplomacy, rising oil prices benefiting Russia and growing divisions within Europe that risk weakening support for Ukraine at a critical moment. The longer the Iran war continues, the more difficult Ukraine’s position becomes.What does the Iran war mean for Ukraine’s military position? How is US support being affected? Why does the conflict benefit Russia economically? And can Europe maintain a united stance on Ukraine?Bookshelf RecommendationRussia in 1839 by Astolphe de CustineThis podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran.This week Mark Leonard records live from ECFR’s all-staff retreat in Sofia, bringing together colleagues from across the continent to unpack European reactions to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. While some leaders have taken a firm stance against the war, others have shifted position and divisions are emerging across Europe.Why has Spain taken such a clear line against the conflict? How is Germany balancing its relationship with the US, Israel and Ukraine? What role is France seeking to play as a military and diplomatic actor? And how are countries like Italy and Poland navigating domestic pressures alongside their transatlantic ties?This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, Eran Etzion, former Israeli diplomat and deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council at the Pime Minister’s Office and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme. Over the past couple of weeks, the US and Israel have continued attacking Iranian military and energy infrastructure, Iran has appointed a new Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, oil prices have surged and Iran is targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But amid all this activity, America’s war aims remain as unclear as ever, exacerbated by dozens of conflicting statements from President Trump and US senior officials.Together, Mark, Aziz, Eran and Ellie assess the state of the conflict in Middle East, focusing on the political climate in Iran, Israel and the Gulf states. Does Trump have a way out? Is there any path to de-escalation? For how long will the war last? And what does this mean for the Middle East—and for Europe?Bookshelf: A Kurdish Rebellion in Iran Could Be a Disaster – Ellie Geranmayeh Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine - Hussein Agha and Robert MalleyThis episode was recorded on March 12th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard speaks to Raja Mohan, academic and foreign policy analyst, in a podcast episode recorded live from New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue conference. Together they explore how India views the current global moment: from the resilience of US autonomy to the diffusion of influence across emerging powers.Why has India’s relationship with the EU become more strategically important? How is New Delhi balancing ties with Beijing, Moscow and Washington while deepening economic integration with Western partners? And what role could India and Europe play together in shaping security, technology and connectivity across a wider “Indo-Mediterranean” region?This podcast was recorded on March 4 2026 in New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this emergency episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow, to discuss the dramatic escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure.What are Trump’s war aims and does he really seek regime change? Could Iran’s political system survive this shock, or is deeper transformation underway? How are Gulf states reacting as they find themselves on the front line? And with Europe largely sidelined so far, what role could or should Europeans play in preventing further escalation?This emergency episode was recorded on Sunday afternoon, 2pm UK time, as events continue to unfold.Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so by Ellie Geranmayeh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy.   Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does?  Bookshelf An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh  The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro Season 4 of Bridgerton on Netflix  Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2) by Vanity Fair  Susie Wiles Talks Epstein Files, Pete Hegseth’s War Tactics, Retribution, and More (Part 2 of 2) by Vanity Fair  This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Mark Malloch-Brown. Mark is the former president of the Open Society Foundations, former head of the United Nations Development Programme, formerly UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s chief of staff, and former UN deputy secretary general. From 2007-2009 he joined the British government of prime minister Gordon Brown as minister responsible for Africa and Asia.  Together, Mark and Mark discuss how the role and impact of the Bretton Woods institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF, have changed. How can these institutions adapt to the rough-and-tumble world of 21st-century geopolitics—especially considering China’s increased support for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and projections that Asia will hold 50% of global GDP by 205? Is Mark Carney right that there is a rupture in the old order? How did the Bretton Woods institutions underpin the old order? Are the World Bank and IMF problematic and outdated? Is it possible to reinvent these institutions for a new era? Or is it better to work through new, more representative institutions? Bookshelf 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in History – and How It Shattered a Nation by Andrew Ross Sokin  Facing Up to the Future: Navigating Disruption, Building Trust by Patrick Achi, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Mark Malloch-Brown News and reflections from Mark Malloch-Brown by Mark Malloch-Brown This episode was recorded on February 6th 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow Jeremy Cliffe, Senior Policy Fellow, Ulrike Franke, Distinguished Policy Fellow, Janka Oertel and Senior Policy Fellow, Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments.Recording from the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich, they reflect on Marco Rubio’s message to Europe, European leaders’ calls for greater autonomy, Zelensky’s intervention on Ukraine, and the shifting tone on China, NATO and tech regulation. Is the transatlantic relationship entering a new phase? Did Europe show unity or fragmentation? And what does the mood in Munich reveal about the future of security in 2026?This podcast was recorded live at the Munich Security Conference 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode features a live recording of a conversation between ECFR director Mark Leonard and US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026. Together, they discuss how ideas developed in think-tanks translate into government policy, and how the “America First” approach is shaping US national security priorities. Mark and Elbridge examine NATO’s evolution toward greater European responsibility, the challenge of turning higher defence spending into effective military capability, and the continued importance of nuclear deterrence.They also discuss support for Ukraine, rising concerns about China’s military posture, efforts to counter Iran, and the strategic role of the US–Israel relationship, before looking ahead to the trade-offs and priorities likely to define American strategy in the coming years.This podcast was recorded on February 13th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, Portugal’s former secretary of state for European affairs and senior visiting fellow at ECFR, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, to reflect on the recent transatlantic crisis over Greenland. After meetings in Copenhagen with Danish and Greenlandic leaders, and Tiago’s visit to Nuuk, Mark discusses with him and Jim how tensions escalated, why they were diffused at Davos, and what lessons Europe can draw from the episode. What mood are the Danes in? How do they assess Trump’s motivations? Has the crisis brought Greenlanders closer to Denmark? And how did Denmark go about building European unity to oppose Donald Trump’s moves? Bookshelf Indignity: Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi Everybody Loves Our Dollars by Oliver Bullough  This episode was recorded on February 11th 2026  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.