Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks

Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Emilio’s Twitter: @ocampo_emilio Emilio’s Substack Emilio’s UCEMA profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo   *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky   *Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market is Thriving* by Ryan Dube   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation   (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance   (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie*   (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina   (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform   (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases   (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina   (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward   (00:58:48) – Outro

Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jonathon’s Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon’s website Jonathon’s LSE profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson   *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler   *Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings   *The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation   (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs*   (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications   (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned?   (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach*   (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives   (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation   (00:55:09) – Outro

Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Thomas’s website Thomas’s Twitter: @td_econ   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data* by Thomas Drechsel   *Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach* by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel   *Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence* by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers   *Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs* by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez   *Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Indentifcation with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung   *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence?   (00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance   (00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed   (00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results   (00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation   (00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results   (00:59:45) – Outro

Matthew Pines is the director of intelligence for SentinelOne Strategic Advisory Group and is a veteran of the national security world. Matthew is also the author of several papers on cryptocurrencies and their implications for national security, including a recent one titled, *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin,* and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these linkages. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, the problems with our current network approach to national security, how digital currency can enhance dollar dominance worldwide, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Matthew’s Twitter: @matthew_pines Matthew’s Bitcoin Policy Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin* by Matthew Pines   *National Security in the Digital Age: Bitcoin as a Tool for Modern Statecraft* by authors Matthew Pines, Ben Kincaid, Robert Malka, James McGinniss, Lee Bratcher, Pierre Rochard, Lindsey Daley, Gabriel Royal, Thomas Wood, Ian Gaines, and Kyle Schneps   *Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order* by Paul Tucker   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:35) – Matthew’s Journey into the National Security Space   (00:07:56) – Evaluating the Current Level of Defense Expenditures   (00:12:17) – An Executive Summary of *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin*   (00:16:11) – Problems with Our Current Network Approach to National Security   (00:26:24) – The Intersection of Monetary Policy and National Security   (00:29:55) – How Can Digital Currency Enhance Dollar Dominance Across the Globe?   (00:38:32) – Breaking Down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal and Its Implications   (00:48:13) – The National Defense Authorization Act and the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act: Basics and Implications   (00:57:29) – Outro

Travis Hill is the Vice Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about discount window and bank liquidity, receivership funding, and the tokenization of financial assets. Specifically, David and Travis also discuss the push for pre-positioning at the discount window, how the FDIC funds receiverships, the impact of tokenization on the future of banking, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Travis’s FDIC profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Reflections on Bank Regulatory and Resolution Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the American Enterprise Institute   *Banking’s Next Chapter? Remarks on Tokenization and Other Issues* – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the Mercatus Center   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:02:36) – The Unique Role of the FDIC and the Vice Chair   (00:10:58) – The Push for Pre-Positioning at the Discount Window   (00:20:19) – Addressing the Current Issues Relating to the Discount Window   (00:28:44) – How Does the FDIC Fund Receiverships?   (00:35:41) – Breaking Down the Federal Financing Bank   (00:40:10) – Discount Window Stigma and Uncollateralized Fed Funding   (00:45:44) – Tokenization and Its Impact on the Future of Banking and Cross-Border Payments   (00:54:40) – Outro

Catherine Pakaluk is an Associate Professor of Social Research and Economic Thought at the Bush School of Business at the Catholic University of America. Catherine is also the author of a new book titled, *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Catherine and David also specifically discuss the facts of demographic decline, the women who are pushing back against this trend, its broader implications for the economy and society, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Catherine’s Twitter: @CRPakaluk Catherine’s website Catherine’s CUA profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth* by Catherine Pakaluk   *Why Americans Aren’t Having Babies* by Rachel Wolfe   *No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children* by Paul Morland   *Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage* by Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:16) – *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*   (00:08:30) – The Facts of Demographic Decline   (00:12:48) – The Implications of Demographic Decline   (00:20:28) – Breaking Down the “Chain of Infinity”   (00:23:15) – The Forces Driving Demographic Decline   (00:32:18) – The Influence and Impact of Paul Ehrlich   (00:38:16) – The Motivation and Background for *Hannah’s Children*   (00:43:29) – Why Are Women Having Larger Families?   (00:52:18) – Exploring Pronatal Policy Recommendations   (00:57:03) – Outro

Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini   *Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson   *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*   (00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others   (00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar   (00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?   (00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto   (00:49:19) – Outro

Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder   *Why Do We Dislike Inflation?* by Stefanie Stantcheva   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History*   (00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication   (00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy*   (00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US   (00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods   (00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II   (00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present   (00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review   (00:49:22) – Outro

Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more.   DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Samim’s Twitter: @GhamamiSamim Samim’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC   (00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market   (00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates   (00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market   (00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform   (00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform   (00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms   (00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns   (00:48:26) – Outro

Kyla Scanlon is the founder of Bread, a financial education company where she brings economics to a wide and often younger audience, and is also the author of the book, *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.* Kyla joins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of economic issues, including the case nominal GDP targeting, the basics of the “Vibecession” and the vibe economy, how to further build American wealth, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Kyla’s Twitter: @kylascan Kyla’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work* by Kyla Scanlon   *Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:06) – Kyla’s Academic and Professional Path   (00:15:20) – Flipping the Macro Musings Script: David’s NGDP Targeting Pitch   (00:30:52) – Breaking Down the “Vibecession” and the Vibe Economy   (00:34:41) – The Housing Side of a Vibe Economy   (00:38:54) – The Path to Growing American Wealth   (00:41:40) – The Issue of Population Growth   (00:44:15) – Gen Z’s Interest in Macroeconomics   (00:47:52) – How Should We Think About Labor Market Indicators?   (00:50:51) – Outro