Predicting the Unpredictable with Alex Shahidi

The investment world is filled with overconfidence. We obsessively track our wins while conveniently forgetting our losses, leading most investors—even professionals—to achieve prediction accuracy barely above 50%. This sobering reality forms the foundation of a fascinating conversation about why predicting markets is so difficult and how diversification offers protection against our behavioral biases.When we zoom in too closely on market movements, every fluctuation appears significant, triggering emotional responses that frequently sabotage our long-term success. The natural instincts that serve us well in everyday life often lead to counterproductive investment behaviors—buying high and selling low in response to fear and greed. A risk parity framework offers an antidote to these tendencies by emphasizing balanced exposure across assets that respond differently to various economic conditions.True diversification extends far beyond traditional 60/40 portfolios, which typically show 98% correlation with equity markets. Instead, it requires thoughtful allocation across stocks, bonds, commodities, and inflation-protected securities, weighted according to their volatility characteristics. Historical data supports this approach: equities have experienced "lost decades" in two of the past five decades, while alternative assets like gold have delivered comparable long-term returns but performed best during equity's worst periods. This complementary performance pattern demonstrates why diversification across uncorrelated assets provides the only "free lunch" in investing.Today's environment of heightened uncertainty and inflation volatility makes diversified approaches more valuable than ever. While many portfolios have become increasingly concentrated in U.S. equities after years of outperformance, the coming decade may reward those who embrace a more balanced approach to navigating the unknowable future. Remember: investing isn't about predicting tomorrow perfectly—it's about building resilient portfolios that can thrive across diverse economic scenarios.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Alternative investments are no longer just for institutional players and ultra-wealthy individuals. As Henry Yoshida reveals in this eye-opening conversation, everyday investors are increasingly allocating portions of their retirement accounts toward private investments outside the traditional stock and bond markets.Yoshida, a 23-year CFP veteran who built and sold both a financial advisory firm and a robo-advisor before founding Rocket Dollar, has created a platform that now manages $12 billion in alternative assets within tax-advantaged accounts. His company provides the infrastructure for investors to use their IRAs and 401(k)s to invest in private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency, and even unusual assets like cattle and racehorses.What makes this approach particularly interesting is the psychological benefit that comes with these investments. Unlike public markets where constant price fluctuations can trigger emotional selling, alternatives typically lack minute-by-minute valuations. This reduced transparency often helps investors maintain long-term positions without succumbing to short-term market noise – something Yoshida's customers have repeatedly confirmed.The platform primarily serves "mass affluent" retail investors with $250,000-$5 million in investable assets, who typically allocate 10-20% of their retirement funds to alternatives after experiencing significant gains in public markets. Rather than sourcing investments directly, Rocket Dollar solves the "demand side" by giving investors access to their retirement funds for private investments they've identified elsewhere.This democratization of alternative investments comes at a crucial time. As Yoshida points out, the traditional pathway for companies growing from small caps into large ones has fundamentally changed. Companies like OpenAI and SpaceX enter public markets at already massive valuations, meaning retail investors miss the substantial growth phase that historically occurred in public markets. Through alternative investments, individuals have potential access to these opportunities earlier in their lifecycle.Whether you're considering diversifying your retirement portfolio or simply curious about the expanding world of investment options, this conversation offers valuable insights into how the investment landscape is evolving beyond traditional asset classes.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The global investment landscape is shifting as international markets gain momentum despite lingering trade tensions. After years of US stock dominance creating stretched valuations, investors are increasingly looking abroad for more reasonably priced opportunities with similar growth potential.Phil Wool, Chief Research Officer at Rayliant, makes a compelling case for emerging markets as fertile ground for active management strategies. Markets like Taiwan, South Korea, and China feature 80-90% retail trading volume, creating inefficiencies that systematic approaches can exploit by targeting strong fundamentals and positive sentiment.One of the most overlooked aspects of emerging markets is their substantial technology exposure. South Korea's market comprises roughly 50% tech stocks yet trades at just 10x forward earnings—compared to the S&P 500's 23x. Taiwan's market is approximately 75% tech-focused but remains more affordable than US indices. These markets offer exposure to companies building critical components for data centers and AI infrastructure that often don't receive the same attention as the Magnificent Seven.Japan represents another intriguing opportunity with its broad market featuring limited analyst coverage beyond top companies. After decades of deflation and stagnation, Japan is experiencing an economic inflection point with normalizing monetary policy and significant corporate governance reforms unlocking previously trapped value.For investors concerned about international risk, Wool notes that much potential downside is already priced into these markets, unlike US equities where the recent recovery suggests investors may be underestimating lingering uncertainties. While emerging markets carry additional geopolitical and governance risks, these create opportunities for disciplined active managers who can identify well-governed companies.The evolution toward sophisticated multi-factor frameworks has transformed international investing. Rather than relying on traditional value or growth tilts alone, advanced systematic strategies now incorporate diverse signals including market-specific factors accounting for local regulations and institutions—particularly valuable when navigating diverse global markets with varying characteristics.Ready to explore international opportunities? Visit rayliant.com to learn more about their quantamental ETFs designed to capture behavioral alpha across global markets.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The market climbs relentlessly higher while uncertainty looms on every horizon. Is this sustainable? Seth Cogswell of Running Oak draws compelling parallels between today's investment landscape and the bubble of 2000, where a handful of companies drove index returns while numerous others languished in the shadows.We're living through what historians might call a "Fourth Turning" – a once-in-80-years societal transformation that coincides with major shifts in government, economy, and technology. Add to this the troubling possibility that social media and AI might actually be making us collectively less intelligent, and you have a recipe for market inefficiency that thoughtful investors can exploit.Cogswell reveals why mid-cap companies occupy a unique sweet spot in this environment – established enough to provide stability but small enough to deliver meaningful growth when they innovate. This segment has been largely overlooked as capital floods into the largest names, creating valuation imbalances that spell opportunity for disciplined investors.The Running Oak approach focuses on three timeless principles: maximizing earnings growth, maintaining strict valuation discipline, and mitigating downside risk. This rules-based strategy ensures consistency regardless of market conditions, making it an anchor holding for uncertain times.Perhaps most compelling is Cogswell's insight about "investing where others aren't." When everyone piles into the same popular stocks, prices rise and future returns diminish. Conversely, areas of the market receiving less attention often offer better valuations, higher upside potential, and lower downside risk – exactly the asymmetric opportunity sophisticated investors seek.As passive flows continue to concentrate in fewer names, the opportunity for disciplined, thoughtful investment approaches grows. Follow Seth Cogswell on LinkedIn and Twitter @SethCogswell or visit RunningOak.com to learn more about navigating these extraordinary market conditions.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

What happens when the investment playbook that worked for the past decade suddenly stops working? In this eye-opening discussion with Paul Baiocchi, Chief ETF Strategist at SS&C Alps Advisors, we explore the compelling case for looking beyond the S&P 500 and its dominant mega-cap tech stocks.The conversation centers on one of the most overlooked megatrends reshaping our economy: electrification. As Paul explains, this isn't just about utilities—it's a convergence of AI data centers, EV adoption, and home electrification driving unprecedented electricity demand growth after two decades of flat consumption. This transformation creates investment opportunities across multiple sectors, from midstream energy companies transporting natural gas to industrial firms building the expanded grid infrastructure.We also examine why international markets are showing signs of life after 16 years of U.S. dominance. With developed markets outside the U.S. trading at a 30% valuation discount, experiencing stronger earnings growth, and benefiting from a weakening dollar, the stage may be set for a multi-year period of outperformance. Similarly, small caps and REITs represent potential mean reversion opportunities, with both segments trading at historically deep discounts despite improving fundamentals.The key takeaway? Investment cycles eventually turn, and positioning your portfolio for what's next rather than what's worked in the past requires looking beyond the obvious. Whether through thematic approaches capturing structural economic shifts, international allocations benefiting from valuation gaps, or quality-focused small cap strategies, diversification may be coming back into favor.Ready to explore investment opportunities beyond the concentrated mega-cap tech trade? This conversation provides a roadmap for navigating the next market cycle rather than the last one.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The quest for true portfolio diversification often feels impossible in today's market environment. When volatility strikes, traditional "alternatives" tend to move in lockstep with equities, undermining their diversification benefits. But what if there existed an asset class with genuine structural independence from equity markets?Enter the carbon credit market – perhaps the ultimate alternative investment. With a remarkably low 0.3 correlation to US equities, carbon markets offer double the potential returns of the S&P 500 while operating on completely different cycles. Unlike most investments vulnerable to economic downturns, carbon markets feature government-mandated demand, steadily decreasing supply, and in California's case, a floor price that increases by inflation plus 5% annually – approximately 8% in today's environment.This trillion-dollar market remains largely unknown to mainstream investors despite covering 25% of the global economy. Companies across Europe, California, the UK, and other regions must purchase carbon permits corresponding to their emissions by law. As governments tighten these markets to meet climate goals through 2050, the structural pressure on prices creates a compelling investment case completely disconnected from traditional market dynamics.Luke Oliver of KraneShares explains how carbon investments like KRBN (global carbon), KCCA (California carbon), and KEUA (European carbon) can transform portfolio construction. Typically allocated at 2-4% of portfolios (though some institutions go up to 8%), carbon exposure provides diversification previously available only to endowments and family offices. For investors searching for alternatives that actually behave differently from stocks during market stress, carbon credits offer a unique opportunity backed by regulatory frameworks rather than sentiment.Ready to diversify beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio? Explore how carbon markets might be the missing piece in your investment strategy – offering genuine diversification with substantial return potential in a world where true alternatives have become increasingly scarce.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Phillip Toews, founder of Toews Asset Management, delivers a master class in portfolio construction that challenges everything you thought you knew about investing. Drawing from historical market catastrophes often ignored by conventional wisdom, Toews reveals how a traditional 60/40 portfolio would have been devastated during the Great Depression – losing up to 72% of its value and remaining down over 60% after thirteen years.This eye-opening conversation explores the concept of "adaptive fixed income" as Toews walks us through the little-discussed bond bear market from 1945 to 1981 that eroded investor wealth by 21% in real terms. With high sovereign debt levels globally and unprecedented monetary policy responses, Toews suggests we may be vulnerable to currency debasement rather than traditional market dynamics.The heart of Toews' philosophy lies in his revolutionary approach to behavioral finance. Rather than starting with conventional portfolios and coaching investors through volatility, he advocates designing "all-weather" portfolios from the ground up that address both economic and psychological needs. His hedged equity approach aims to capture most market upside while dramatically limiting participation in downturns, potentially allowing investors to maintain positions during crashes and capitalize on eventual recoveries.Toews introduces the concept of "corona bias" – just as society was unprepared for a pandemic despite historical precedent, investors ignore financial catastrophes outside their professional lifetimes. This collective amnesia leaves portfolios vulnerable to recurrences of historical calamities.Whether you're an investment professional seeking to differentiate your practice or an individual investor concerned about today's complex market environment, this conversation provides a roadmap for building portfolios designed to withstand various economic scenarios while managing the crucial behavioral aspects of investing. Discover why Toews' recently published book "The Behavioral Portfolio" is changing how advisors approach client relationships and portfolio construction.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Warren Buffett himself called our economy "asset light" – and for good reason. Today's most valuable companies derive their worth not from factories or equipment, but from intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects. Yet traditional value investing metrics, developed in the industrial era of railroads and utilities, completely miss these crucial drivers of modern business value.Kai Wu, founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, takes us on a fascinating journey through the evolution of value investing and explains why it's due for a radical update. With 50-80% of US company balance sheet value now coming from intangible assets, investors relying solely on price-to-book ratios find themselves increasingly unable to identify true value in today's markets.The problem extends beyond mere definition. Our accounting standards systematically distort company valuations by expensing rather than capitalizing R&D and other intangible investments. This creates the paradoxical situation where companies investing heavily in their future appear less profitable in the present – a disconnect that creates tremendous opportunity for investors willing to look deeper.Sparkline's innovative approach leverages artificial intelligence and big data to analyze unstructured information sources, from patent filings to social media, quantifying what traditional financial statements miss. This methodology bridges the growing divide between growth and value investors, applying timeless valuation principles to the digital economy.Wu shares a compelling case study of NVIDIA, which Sparkline owned when it traded at a seemingly astronomical P/E ratio of 100. After adjusting for NVIDIA's extraordinary intellectual property and innovative culture, their models showed the stock was actually undervalued – a perspective completely missed by traditional metrics.For investors looking to apply these insights, Sparkline offers two ETFs: ITAN for US markets and DTAN for international developed markets. Both funds seek companies rich in intangible assets but trading at reasonable valuations – essentially value investing adapted for the digital age.Want to dive deeper into Kai's research? Visit sparklinecapital.com to explore his published papers and learn more about investing in the intangible economy.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

The global investment landscape is shifting beneath our feet, yet most investors remain fixated on US markets. Rohit Goel, Partner and Head of Global Macro at Breakout Capital, reveals why this myopia could prove costly in the years ahead.Rohit drives home an alarming point: US fiscal deficits running at 6.5-7% of GDP during economic expansion represent an understated risk that markets have largely ignored. "If it is any other country on this planet, you would see a reaction, whether in bond yields or currency," he explains. This fiscal vulnerability could eventually force global investors to demand higher risk premiums on US assets, catalyzing capital flows toward international alternatives.Where might this capital flow? Rohit points to markets starved of investment for fifteen years – Europe, Japan, and particularly emerging markets. Latin America stands at an inflection point with elections potentially delivering reform-minded leadership across major economies. Poland's investment-focused policies create another bright spot, while frontier markets from Nigeria to Sri Lanka implement meaningful reforms after pandemic-era financing constraints forced hard choices.Perhaps most valuable is Rohit's framework for emerging market investing: "In emerging markets, 65% of returns are attributable to country selection." Unlike developed markets where sector selection drives performance, getting the country right is paramount in emerging spaces. And while liquidity remains challenging, patient investors with two-to-five-year horizons stand to benefit as capital eventually follows performance.Rohit also dispels a common misconception about dollar cycles. The currency's likely depreciation over the next several years represents a normal economic cycle unrelated to reserve currency status. Since 1975, the dollar has experienced multiple significant bear markets without losing its position in the global financial architecture.For investors willing to look beyond US borders, the coming years may offer extraordinary opportunities in markets long overlooked by global capital. The question is whether you'll position yourself ahead of this potential sea change or chase it after it's already underway.Riddler Road Rally is not your average adventure. It’s a live, citywide scavenger hunt on wheels, that will be the most fun you have this summer!Riddler Road Rally is hitting eleven cities across Utah and Idaho. Each rally brings new clues and its own vibe, with pre-rally parties, swag giveaways, and surprise diversions. Whether you rep your hometown or hit every stop on the Wasatch Tour to climb the 2025 leaderboard, the choice is yours.You and your team will race across t  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show