ep46 - The fall of LTCM: Bachelier, Merton, and Black–Scholes ... when stochastic control met Wall Street
Outline00:00 - Intro02:25 - Bachelier and the Théorie de la Spéculation03:05 - Stochastic processes, Brownian motion, and the heat equation09:45 - Poincaré's verdict, obscurity, and rediscovery13:50 - Robert C. Merton: from hot rods to MIT19:25 - Dynamic programming and Itô calculus24:35 - Merton's portfolio problem as stochastic optimal control31:10 - Options, dynamic hedging, and the Black–Scholes–Merton equation39:50 - LTCM: the dream team46:30 - August 1998: the crash49:00 - Fat tails and the ten-sigma defense51:40 - The ghosts of 2008 and echoes in the AI boom54:00 - Robustness embraced at last: Hansen and Sargent57:45 - OutroLinksBachelier's thesis, "Théorie de la Spéculation" (1900): https://www.numdam.org/item/10.24033/asens.476.pdfCourtault et al., "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation": https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00098Merton's Nobel autobiography: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/merton/biographical/Merton's MIT "Infinite History" interview: https://infinite.mit.edu/video/robert-c-merton-phd-%E2%80%9970/Mandelbrot, "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices": https://doi.org/10.1086/294632Merton, "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model": https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(71)90038-XMoehle & Boyd, "A Certainty Equivalent Merton Problem": https://doi.org/10.1109/LCSYS.2021.3111534Brigo & Mercurio, "Interest Rate Models: Theory and Practice": https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-34604-3Armstrong, Brigo & Hanzon, "Optimal Projection Filters with Information Geometry": https://doi.org/10.1007/s41884-023-00108-xHu & Zhou, "Constrained Stochastic LQ Control with Random Coefficients, and Application to Portfolio Selection": https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012904441969Black & Scholes, "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities": https://doi.org/10.1086/260062Merton, "Theory of Rational Option Pricing": https://doi.org/10.2307/3003143Merton, "Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are Discontinuous": https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90022-2Scholes' Nobel lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/scholes/lecture/Merton's Nobel lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/merton/lecture/Markowitz, "Portfolio Selection": https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974Michael Lewis, "Liar's Poker": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_PokerEdwards, "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management": https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.2.189Lowenstein, "When Genius Failed": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Genius_FailedTaleb, "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails": https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488Taleb & West, "Working with Convex Responses: Antifragility from Finance to Oncology": https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020343Taleb, "The Black Swan": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_ImprobableTaleb, "Fooled by Randomness": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_RandomnessMan Group, "The AI Bubble: Hidden Risks and Opportunities": https://www.man.com/insights/the-ai-bubbleSen. Warren's remarks at the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-remarks-at-vanderbilt-policy-accelerator-event-highlighting-economic-and-financial-risks-of-potential-ai-crashMeng & Chen, "Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk": https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.03272Doyle, "Guaranteed Margins for LQG Regulators": https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1978.1101791Safonov & Athans, "Gain and Phase Margin for Multiloop LQG Regulators": https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1977.1101470Hansen & Sargent, "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty": https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.60Hansen & Sargent, "Wanting Robustness in Macroeconomics": http://www.tomsargent.com/research/wanting.pdfSupport the showPodcast infoPodcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85jSpotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3cRSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4yYoutube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolPInstagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4Acknowledgments and sponsorsThis episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.