Trump’s Stalled Peace Push and the Future of the Ukraine War

Can Taipei maintain stability amid great power competition? Taiwan is facing rising Chinese pressure and increasingly uncertain US backing. As cross-strait tensions intensify, the central question for Taipei is whether it can maintain its delicate status quo. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss Taiwan's strategic outlook following the Taipei Security Dialogue. - The discussion explores: - China's evolving strategy towards Taiwan, from military build-up to grey zone coercion. - The state of US policy under President Trump and its implications for deterrence. - How Taiwan's government and society are responding to growing uncertainty. - The prospects for maintaining the cross-strait status quo amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.

As the end of the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, questions mount over President Trump’s peace efforts and shifting international dynamics. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian Minister of Defence and now Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, to assess where the war now stands. The discussion explores: - Russia’s intensified military campaign and Ukraine’s counterstrikes - The collapse of Trump’s diplomatic effort after the Alaska summit with Putin - Europe’s response after being sidelined by Washington - Moscow’s long-term strategy and potential challenges to NATO cohesion - Ukraine’s security guarantees and the prospects for peace as a fifth year of fighting looms

Can Turkey act as a stabilising force in Syria and Iraq, or are its policies driven by short-term security concerns? As Ankara seeks to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, its approach to Syria and Iraq has become a key test of its regional influence. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI, Dr Serhat Erkmen, RUSI associate fellow and founder of the geopolitical risk consultancy, Pros and Cons, and Dr Oytun Orhan, Coordinator of Levant Studies at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), to examine Turkey's policies. The discussion explores the impact of domestic pressures, regional rivalries, security threats, and great power relations, asking whether Ankara can translate tactical gains into a sustainable regional role.  

The Royal Navy Fleet flagship in Asia prompts a critical question: How serious is Britain about the Indo-Pacific? Against a backdrop of deepening UK - Japan defence and economic ties, shifting US engagement, and growing regional security pressures, this episode of Global Security Briefing explores what the HMS Prince of Wales' 2025 mission reveals about the UK's approach to the Indo-Pacific. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss how the deployment has been received in Japan and across the region, what has changed since the 2021 Royal Navy mission, and where Britain's Indo-Pacific policy may be heading in the years ahead.

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are testing US power and alliances. What does this mean for regional strategy and for the UK? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr. Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow, RUSI, to examine whether the Trump administration has a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy or is simply reacting to China's growing influence. As Washington debates its role in Asia amid military overstretch, defence industrial challenges, and diverging views on alliance priorities, the UK faces key questions about its own Indo-Pacific tilt. With British carriers deploying to the region and AUKUS under scrutiny, this episode explores whether the US has the will and means to lead, how regional actors are responding, and what all this means for UK strategy in an era of intensifying great power competition.

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended. As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?

How is the UK's Labour government approaching European security, and how does this compare to the Conservatives? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Richard Whitman to examine how much has changed since Labour came to power. The UK is currently setting a path to navigate an uncertain world in a series of major reviews - the Security and Defence Review has just been published, a new National Security Strategy was release, and a Defence Industry Strategy is due later in the year. But amid the flurry of Whitehall documents, Labour is under pressure to deliver on its promises and, crucially, match the resources to fund a major increase in defence spending. Discussants assess the British government's readiness to find the financial resources that will be necessary to match the political commitments it is making. What should be the UK priorities as European security looks likely to undergo significant changes in the coming decades?

Is there a real near-term prospect of an end of Russia's war against Ukraine? RUSI experts explain four and a half months of the Trump Administration's approach to the war. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Samuel Greene, who teaches Russian politics at King's College and is a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, and Andriy Zagorodnuyk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies, Kyiv, who also previously served as Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019-2020). They examine Trump's approach to the war, which initially seemed to reposition the United States as a broker between Moscow and Kyiv, and expressed itself ready to cede key demands to Russia with the objective of bringing the war to a conclusion Talks have dragged on, and the US President has seemed to grow frustrated with the complexity of the issues and the pace of the negotiations. While initially welcoming Trump's approach to the conflict, Russia has seemed unwilling to genuinely commit, opting instead to prolong the process. The team outlines what will come next and how United States policy towards Russia and Ukraine is likely to develop in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Can Peace Without Democracy Work? RUSI experts discuss the rise of illiberal peacebuilding in the Middle East and what it means for UK foreign policy. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, Dr Claire Smith, Deputy Associate Dean for the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Faculty Director of Postgraduate Research, University of York, and Dr Rana Khalaf, Research Consultant and non-resident fellow at the University of St Andrews, to examine how authoritarian approaches to conflict management are reshaping the post-war landscape in the Middle East. The panel explores the rise of illiberal peace - where stability is pursued through top-down control, elite deals, and the exclusion of dissent. From Syria and Egypt to Libya and Iraq, the episode considers how this model is gaining traction among domestic regimes and international actors alike. The discussion also reflects on the risks of prioritising order over democratic values and asks whether Western interventions have contributed to similar outcomes. Looking ahead, the team assesses what this shift means for the UK's role in a region where peace increasingly comes without democracy.

GSB turns 100: RUSI experts look back on key security shifts and explore what’s next for the UK in a rapidly changing global landscape. In this special 100th episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by the RUSI International Security team to reflect on how global security has evolved since the podcast’s launch in 2021. Recorded live in London, the episode examines a world marked by rising state-based wars, increasing military tensions, and the fragmentation of the post–World War II international order. From the Russia–Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East to the growing rivalry between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific, the panel explores the key trends driving today’s global insecurity. The discussion also considers the rise of influential regional powers and the UK’s search for a post-Brexit role on the world stage. The team also offers insights on the security challenges of the next five years. Can the UK and its allies adapt to an increasingly contested and divided global landscape?