Incentives Always Beat Intentions

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), discusses the intricacies of economic cycles, inflation forecasting, and the impact of policy responses on the economy, providing insights into current and future economic trends.

Stephen McBride, co-founder of the Rational Optimist Society and chief analyst at investment research firm RiskHedge, shares his framework focused on disruption, the importance of incentives, and how to identify the next big trends in technology and markets. Learn how to think about investing in disruptive businesses and the role of storytelling in technology adoption.

A hedge fund nearly blew up in a single week—not because of a bad bet, but because of leverage. And that's a problem the US government knows well. This week, Jared Dillian joins Ed D'Agostino to unpack what higher rates mean for America's debt, Japan, and the yen; why he's still one of the last bond bulls standing; and why he thinks the real tech bear market begins the day OpenAI files its S-1. Plus, Jared's new book, The Awesome Portfolio—a smarter, lower-stress way to save for retirement.

Barry Habib, CEO of MBS Highway and four-time winner of Zillow's Crystal Ball Award, joins Ed D'Agostino to answer a question that causes a lot of pushback: Is housing really harder now than it was for previous generations? Yes—and also no. Barry makes the case that 45% of first-time buyers are sitting out over a down payment myth, walks the math on why a homeowner's net worth is 44 times a renter's, and explains why mortgage rates from here depend less on the Fed than on the price of oil.

Michael Howell of GL Indexes and Capital Wars joins Ed D'Agostino to explain how global liquidity is being drained by four converging forces—central bank tightening, surging oil, a rising dollar, and spiking bond volatility—just as a massive wall of COVID-era debt comes due for refinancing. He makes the case that the bull market is likely over, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is breaking down, and where investors should be looking.

Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro breaks down the long-term implications of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Recorded in the middle of extraordinary oil price swings and a Strait of Hormuz disruption, the conversation moves beyond the daily headlines to explore what this conflict means for the Gulf states' ambitions as global financial hubs, the vulnerability of critical energy chokepoints, and the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world.

Eric Fine, an emerging markets bond portfolio manager at VanEck, discusses how EM bonds currently yield roughly double what you get in developed markets at lower volatility. And yet, almost nobody owns them. He also unpacks how Middle East tensions are creating winners among oil exporters, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and what 13 years of outperformance says about where fixed income is heading.

Yields have every reason to go up—and they're not. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins Global Macro Update to explain what that signal means and why he's more cautious on the economy than the current consensus. Neil was among the few against the 2022 recession narrative and was proven right. Now he's watching the same four indicators, and the conclusion has flipped. Plus: tariffs, AI and the labor market, and a candid take on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination.

Jan Stuart, one of the sharpest oil minds on Wall Street and global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, cuts through the headlines for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026. Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam? Jan answers all… and more.

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave is here this week to discuss emerging markets, China's manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US. If you're discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), this conversation is for you.