Troy Aikman Analytics Debate, Proxy Gate DISASTER & Week 7 Picks | Gamble Up! Ep #27

Adam Schwartz and David Baker recap a packed NFL week, debate which teams are contenders or frauds, and review their survivor and Circa contest fortunes. They also kick things off with David’s Metallica experience at the Sphere in Las Vegas.⏱️ Show Notes & Timestamps0:00 — Welcome to Episode 29: Adam introduces the show and David joins from Las Vegas. 0:31 — Metallica at the Sphere: David shares his experience seeing Metallica at the Sphere, highlighting immersive visuals and sound, ticket pricing strategies, and tips for fans visiting the venue.3:44 — Poker on the calendar: Looking ahead to upcoming poker events, including the WPT at the Venetian, December tournaments, and the return of the LAPC.4:42 — Broncos beat the Chiefs: David celebrates Denver’s thrilling comeback win over Kansas City, analyzing Patrick Mahomes’ crucial late sack, Kansas City’s defense, and Bo Nix’s performance.11:23 — What stats say about quarterbacks: Debating the significance of average depth of target (aDot) and why getting the ball into playmakers' hands matters most.13:20 — The Chiefs penalty debate: Breaking down the late-game penalty called against Kansas City.16:04 — A wild NFL weekend: Recapping Tampa Bay's historic win without completing a pass, Dallas’ collapse against Arizona, and other notable results.22:01 — Other game takeaways: Discussions on Lamar Jackson’s injury, Cincinnati’s close win over Tennessee, Minnesota and Kyler Murray, and an unusual Lions motion play inspired by the CFL.26:07 — Lions, Vikings and “fraud” talk: Assessing Detroit's performance, what makes a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and getting Justin Jefferson more involved.30:42 — Pittsburgh and the meaning of “fraudulent”: Debating whether the Steelers are overhyped or a genuine threat.33:06 — Which teams are vulnerable?: Evaluating the Chiefs, Lions, 49ers, and Seahawks following Seattle's loss to Chicago.36:01 — The Bears’ defense and the offensive line: Highlighting Chicago's improvements, Jeffrey Simmons’ impact, and the importance of defensive-line pressure.38:59 — Rams, Chargers and the Circa Millions: A quick LA matchup breakdown leading into David’s 5–0 week in the Circa Millions contest.40:04 — Circa Millions standings and strategy: Reviewing David's progress, the Grandissimo survivor contest, pivoting on public picks, and the role of hedging.47:47 — Coaching decisions: Reassessing key late-game clock and play-calling choices in the Minnesota and Kansas City matchups.49:51 — Loves, likes and leans: Breaking down how stronger picks are separated from smaller plays, contest cards, and why line movement matters.52:03 — Patreon thanks and weekly picking contest: Reviewing standings and sharing the crew's next selections.53:46 — Adam’s picks: Patriots −3, Commanders +5.5, and Browns +3. 54:26 — Ross’s picks: Jets +10, Raiders +10, and Seahawks −8. 55:24 — David’s picks and trap spots: Navigating tricky spots around the Broncos and Bears, and selecting the Bengals, Texans, and Cowboys for the contest. 1:02:07 — Thursday night plans: Previewing the Jaguars–Ravens matchup, quarterback news in Baltimore, and David’s trip to see The Book of Mormon.1:03:02 — Sign-off: Final wrap-up before the upcoming week's games.🎙️ About Gamble UpJoin Adam Schwartz and David Baker every week for sharp NFL analysis, sports betting strategies, survivor contest updates, and deep dives into the week's biggest matchups.Support the show on Patreon: Get access to extra picks, content, and help support the crew!Subscribe & Turn on Notifications: Never miss an episode, betting breakdown, or weekly picking contest update.

On Episode 28 of Gamble Up!, A Schwartz, David Baker, and Producer Ross break down the brutal Circa Survivor pool results and analyze key NFL Week 8 matchups. Get expert betting strategies, market dynamics analysis, and official picks for Week 8, including deep dives into Aaron Rodgers, the Seahawks, Broncos, and NFC North Divisional Rankings.00:00 - NFL Week 8 Intro & Picks Recap03:01 - Circa Survivor Bloodbath: NFL Week 8 Strategy05:48 - Evaluating NFL Survivor Pool Performance & Pivots08:57 - Poker vs. NFL Sports Betting: Finding Your Edge11:55 - Coin Flips & Variance in NFL Betting Lines14:59 - High-Stakes Contest Markets & Contest Equity17:54 - Syndicate Strategies: Hedging & Portfolio Management21:11 - Circa Millions & $100K Grandissimo Update23:54 - NFL Week 8 Game Breakdown: Key Matchups27:03 - Seattle Seahawks: NFC Contenders or Pretenders?29:04 - Denver Broncos: Analyzing the 5-2 Turnaround31:36 - Fantasy Football Alert: Sean Payton's Backfield Committee36:15 - San Francisco 49ers Injury Crisis vs. Atlanta Falcons38:17 - Minnesota Vikings: Fraudulent Unbeaten Streak?40:13 - Ranking the NFC North: Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings43:22 - New York Giants: Luck vs. Legitimacy in NFC East45:09 - Philadelphia Eagles: Season From Hell & Rebuild Outlook46:48 - AFC North Standings: Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens49:10 - Aaron Rodgers & Pittsburgh Steelers Resurgence51:05 - Caleb Williams & Chicago Bears Future Ceiling53:07 - Analytics Debate: Dan Campbell Fourth-Down Play Call56:05 - NFL Week 8 Betting Trends & Market Moves01:00:04 - Official NFL Week 8 Best Bets & Lock PredictionsIf you like the show, please follow/subscribe on https://www.patreon.com/cw/GambleUpPod and join the community! Donations go to growing the show and the support means a lot to us!

Tune in to **Gamble Up Episode 27** as hosts A Schwartz, David 'ODB' Baker and Roscoe P. (12-3) break down poker tournament strategy at Bay 101, NFL quarterback development, and high-stakes football contest updates. This episode explores the Circa Survivor carnage, the Grandissimo proxy failure controversy, the debate over analytics versus coaching feel on fourth downs, late-game clock management blunders, and official Week 7 NFL picks.00:00 Opening banter and episode setup00:42 Shooting Star bounty structure and how it changes poker strategy03:08 Bay 101's return, tournament culture, and why the room matters04:54 Broncos-Seahawks recap and early Bo Nix concerns08:45 Scheme problems, aDOT criticism, and Denver's offensive limitations12:19 Circumillions standings and whether to press leverage yet14:24 Circa Survivor bloodbath and how the field got split up18:35 Grandissimo proxy failure and why a no-pick is a major issue25:18 Troy Aikman, analytics, and the limits of fourth-down models27:59 Why selection bias skews football decision data35:35 When underdogs should take variance, and when favorites can stay conservative43:02 Steelers clock-management question at the goal line49:49 Jaguars-Texans in London and another late-game decision critique52:40 Rams collapse, NFC West context, and why the market still respects them54:51 Weekly picks recap and the current records58:22 Ross, David, and Adam make their Week 7 picksLove listening to **Gamble Up**? Support the show on Patreon and buy Roscoe a cup of coffee! Join our community at: [https://www.patreon.com/cw/GambleUpPod](https://www.patreon.com/cw/GambleUpPod)

Tune into Gamble Up! #26 as Adam Schwartz, David "ODB" Baker, and Producer Ross break down the latest NFL action. Get expert sports betting insights covering Week 5 coaching blunders, the brutal Survivor contest bloodbath after the Cowboys' collapse, Circa Millions strategies, Bo Nix and the Broncos, power ranking contenders vs. pretenders, and official Week 6 picks.00:00:00 — The Calm Before the Storm: NFL Week Anticipation & David's Trip to Denver00:03:09 — Bo Nix Under the Microscope: Analyzing the Broncos Quarterback's Slump00:06:06 — Fantasy Football Frustrations: Dealing with Underperforming Players00:08:55 — Circa Millions Contest: First Quarter Success and Portfolio Strategies00:12:11 — Survivor Pool Bloodbath: Cowboys Collapse Wipes Out Nearly Half the Field00:15:08 — The State of NFL Coaching: Are Managers Getting Worse?00:18:09 — Clock Management Nightmares: The Fine Lines Between Winning and Losing00:20:53 — Quarterback Awareness: Fatal Late-Game Mental Blunders00:22:31 — Looking Ahead to Week 6: Navigating Byes and Chalk Picks00:28:40 — Survivor Marketplaces: Buying, Selling, and Hedging Entries00:33:29 — Giants vs. Commanders Overtime Disaster: A Masterclass in Mismanagement00:39:00 — Eagles vs. Jaguars in London: Sirianni's Questionable Clock Decisions00:43:01 — More Questionable Decisions: Harbaugh and Payton Under Fire00:45:01 — Power Rankings: Categorizing Contenders vs. Pretenders00:48:55 — Evaluating the Vikings, Bears, and NFL Parity00:56:55 — Lock Picks Performance & Patreon Community Shoutouts00:58:45 — Week 6 Contest Showdown: Official Picks and Lock SelectionsSupport the show and keep Producer Ross fueled up on coffee for those late-night editing sessions! Join our Patreon community for exclusive content, behind-the-scenes updates, and direct support [https://www.patreon.com/cw/GambleUpPod]. Head over to our Patreon page to join today!

This week on Episode 25 of the Gamble Up! Podcast with Adam Schwartz and David "ODB" Baker, recorded right after a chaotic Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season.The guys dive deep into high-stakes sports betting and contest strategy, covering the latest Circa Million leaderboard shakeups, Survivor pool game theory, and the booming Survivor Sweat marketplace. Plus, we break down major Week 4 matchups: including the Patriots' upset over the Bills, the Lions' stumble against Carolina, and the Cowboys' Thursday night outlook, before locking in their sharp against-the-spread (ATS) picks for Week 5!00:00 Intro & Week 4 NFL Takeaways01:17 The Impact of Offensive Line & Defensive Injuries08:35 Circa Million Contest & Quarter 1 Winner Update13:55 Survivor Pool Strategies & Week 4 Review19:55 Survivor Marketplace & Quantifying Future Value27:00 Week 5 Thursday Night Preview: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers38:00 Patriots Upset Bills (Drake Maye & Josh Allen Breakdown)43:30 Panthers Defeat Lions (Bryce Young & Detroit's Defense)45:29 Browns Beat Steelers & Deshaun Watson's Form48:45 Ravens Win But Lose Lamar Jackson49:32 Bears Dominant Win Over the Jets51:30 Jaguars Top Bengals & Trevor Lawrence Discussion54:10 Giants vs. Cardinals Turnover Fest56:30 Coaching Decisions & Analytics Debate59:26 Super Bowl Futures & Division Odds Market1:07:41 MVP and Coach of the Year Markets1:08:10 Patreon Shoutouts & Supporter Thanks1:13:35 Week 5 Official ATS Picks (Adam, Ross, and David)---**Support the Show & Join the Community!**Love the sharp betting insights, Circa contest strategy, and weekly sweat? Help keep the lights on and support Producer Ross by joining our growing Patreon family! A huge thank you to our current members: Old Man Cawfee, Adam Schwartz, and Kells -3.5 for backing the show. https://www.patreon.com/cw/GambleUpPod

In Episode 24 of *Gamble Up*, Adam Schwartz and David "ODB" Baker analyze NFL Week 3 trends, coaching blunders, and Week 4 against-the-spread (ATS) contest picks. The team breaks down Circa Sports' official partnership with Survivor Sweat for secondary market equity trading, key game theory strategies in Circa Survivor and the $100k Grandissimo contest, and portfolio management in Circa Millions.0:00 - Gamble Up Ep. 24 Overview & Early NFL Season Trends04:15 - Circa Sports & Survivor Sweat Secondary Market Partnership12:30 - Circa Survivor Week 3 Carnage & Portfolio Allocation Strategy20:45 - $100k Grandissimo Contest Analysis & Game Theory Strategy29:20 - Week 4 Survivor Strategy: Minnesota Vikings Chalk vs. Leverage Pivots37:50 - NFL Recaps: Raiders 3-0 Cover Streak, Falcons Upset, Bills & Cowboys52:10 - Game Recaps: Broncos Comeback, Bears, Patriots QB Benchings & 49ers59:30 - Internal Host Standings & Circa Millions Portfolio Update01:05:15 - Week 4 Predictions 01:13:50 - Picks & Previews **Support the Show on Patreon! **If you enjoy the podcast and want to support the team, check out our Patreon at [https://www.patreon.com/GambleUpPod](https://www.patreon.com/GambleUpPod)! Huge shoutout to early supporters like OldmanCawfee for stepping up to back the show! Every tier helps us keep delivering top-tier sports betting analysis and contest strategy.

Join Adam Schwartz, David Baker (@AuDavidb), and producer Ross on Episode 23 of the Gamble Up! Podcast as they break down NFL Week 2 reactions, Circa Survivor contest strategy, and NFL Week 3 best bets. The crew dissects the massive 66% Survivor field attrition, explores the EV math behind multi-entry portfolios versus single-entry strategies, and breaks down key Week 3 decision points like whether to take the heavy Kansas City Chiefs chalk or pivot to contrarian spots. From Shane Steichen’s overtime misstep to Aaron Glenn’s clock management meltdown, they review game-changing coaching blunders, fantasy football injury impacts (including Caleb Williams and Jackson Dart), and reveal their top spread picks and Circa Millions consensus plays to help you make smarter betting decisions this football season. PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/GambleUpPod00:00 - Show doc banter and early coaching rants01:02 - Episode intro and what the show will cover02:41 - Survivor ownership: 49ers vs. Buccaneers03:16 - Why single-entry and multi-entry players approach Survivor differently06:40 - Are multi-entry Survivor decisions actually minus EV?10:02 - Aftermarkets, buying entries, and how contest markets work11:47 - Saturday Night Sweat and reading the Survivor community14:18 - Early Survivor attrition and why the field is already crushed17:37 - Holiday weeks, double-pick weeks, and future consolidation spots18:03 - How to think about future value in teams like Detroit20:39 - Using bad teams as live dogs in the right spot22:16 - Why the Chiefs are likely to be heavily owned this week24:09 - Managing risk with uncomfortable Survivor plays26:07 - Circa Millions standings and the best and worst cards28:19 - Bills-Lions recap and Detroit’s offensive outlook30:16 - Falcons-Panthers and the Michael Penix discussion32:36 - Saints stun the Ravens and Tyler Shough’s early profile35:10 - Caleb Williams injury and the Bears’ quarterback situation37:30 - Bengals-Texans and why both teams still look legitimate40:47 - Aaron Glenn’s clock management mistake vs. the Packers45:15 - Eagles-Titans and a fantasy saving Jalen Hurts stack45:40 - Broncos-Jaguars and Bo Nix’s second-half response47:27 - Raiders-Chargers: are the Raiders good or are the Chargers broken?50:20 - Kirk Cousins’ career earnings and fantasy quarterback talk51:41 - Seahawks-Cardinals and JSN’s ascent54:23 - Cowboys-Commanders and Washington’s missed opportunities55:24 - Chiefs-Colts overtime coaching decisions59:23 - Rams-Giants, Jackson Dart’s season-ending injury, and Jameis Winston1:00:22 - Broncos futures and why waiting may be better than buying now1:02:27 - Supporting the show and Ross’s free production work1:05:25 - Week 2 pick contest results1:07:43 - This week’s contest picks from Adam, David, and Ross1:13:29 - Claude’s picks and closing thoughts1:14:15 - Weekend plans, golf, and the President’s Cup1:14:49 - Wrap-up and sign-off

Gamble Up Episode 22 breaks down 'ODB' David Baker’s Survivor strategy, including ownership projections, leverage, future value, contest selection, and the differences between Circa Survivor and Splash Survivor. Adam Schwartz, Ross, and David also recap the biggest Week 1 NFL takeaways, debate contest ethics and syndicates, evaluate Circa Millions, reveal their Super Bowl predictions, and make their Week 2 picks.00:00 – Gamble Up Returns: Football Season Is Back02:06 – David Baker on NFL Obsession, Content, and Social Media Chaos06:12 – How David Builds Survivor Entries Without AI08:19 – Why Jacksonville Was the Safer Survivor Play10:21 – Survivor Strategy: Take Stands, Don’t Copy the Field12:45 – Jacksonville at 50% vs. Chargers at 15% Ownership13:15 – The Future Value Edge: Saving Teams for Later14:10 – Why the Jets Entry Became David’s Most Valuable15:06 – How to Protect a High-Value Survivor Entry16:37 – Circa Survivor vs. Splash Survivor: The Key Differences18:29 – Holiday Weeks, Double Picks, and Preserving Flexibility22:30 – How Ownership Projections Create a Major Edge23:54 – Why Contest Size Changes Field Behavior26:52 – Survivor Ethics: Entry Caps, Teams, and Syndicates29:50 – The Gray Areas Every Survivor Contest Is Still Solving34:34 – Why Circa Millions Stayed Flat Despite Survivor’s Growth37:50 – The Week 1 Millions Portfolio: Big Wins and Brutal Misses41:31 – Why David Passed on the $100K Grandissimo42:56 – Seahawks vs. Patriots: Seattle’s Defense Makes a Statement46:46 – 49ers vs. Rams in Australia: Genius Strategy or Weird Travel?52:43 – Steelers vs. Falcons: Don’t Overreact to One Game53:58 – Ravens Roll, Bears Explode, and Two NFC Contenders Emerge55:06 – Why David Is Still All-In on the Bears58:18 – The Packers’ Three Structural Problems59:37 – Jaguars Cruise While the Bengals Keep Rolling60:27 – Jets Impress as Tennessee Becomes a Prime Fade61:38 – Lions-Saints Overtime: The Case for Going for Two64:32 – Bills vs. Texans: Two Teams Still Built to Contend66:59 – Eagles Need More Proof After Beating Washington68:25 – Giants Shock Dallas: Was It Preparation or a Real Problem?70:08 – Broncos-Chiefs Fallout: Sean Payton Needs to Pick a Lane75:32 – Super Bowl Predictions: Rams, Steelers, Bears, Ravens, and Broncos78:18 – Where the Super Bowl Betting Value Could Be Later80:23 – The Weekly Picks Contest Begins81:35 – David Baker’s Three Week 2 Picks84:41 – Survivor Loser Picks and the Final Debate

Greg “FBT” Mueller joins Gamble Up! for Episode 21 to share stories from his journey through poker. From Vancouver’s early 90's poker scene to unforgettable WSOP final tables and a massive $3.75 million run. Greg discusses poker mindset, mentorship, friendship, pressure, key hands, coaching, and the lessons that have shaped his decades in the game.00:00 Greg “FBT” Mueller: From Hockey Pro to Poker Legend00:30 Pre-Show Banter, Poker Talk & the Gamble Up! Theme01:02 Greg “FBT” Mueller Joins the Gamble Up! Podcast02:35 From the WSOP Main Event to the Smithers Golf Tournament03:41 Vancouver Poker’s Legendary Limit Game Era08:25 From Pro Hockey to Poker, Golf & a Late-Blooming Career10:37 David Baker, Poker Friendships & Early Main Event Memories16:11 The Toughest Matchup: Playing Heads-Up Against Friends19:28 Why the WSOP Main Event Final Table Feels Bigger Than a Bracelet27:42 Bucky’s Tough Love & the Power of a Great Poker Rail32:50 Recommitting to Tournament Poker & Making a Main Event Run39:19 Scotty “Tickets” Stories & Legendary WSOP Rail Energy45:10 Key Hands That Built Confidence During the Main Event50:11 The Final Table Exit Hand: Playing for $3.75 Million56:50 ICM Pressure, Massive Pay Jumps & Final Table Survival1:02:35 Breaking Down the Heads-Up Hand That Decided Millions1:09:55 Final Table Coaching & Preparing for Elite Competition1:13:22 Final Table Now or a Longer Break? The Tough Decision1:15:05 How a $3.75M Score Changes Your Life1:17:59 Closing Thoughts, Poker Friendship & Another Deep Run

We're BACK with new Gamble Up! - ODB, Adam, and Ross recap the biggest moments from WSOP 2026, diving into standout results, key hands, tournament strategy, and the stories shaping this year’s World Series of Poker. They also break down the $25K WSOP Fantasy discussion, player results sharing, bracelet races, early registration strategy, and what the biggest trends from the summer say about the future of poker.From huge-field adjustments to fantasy league angles, bracelet chases, and rising international talent, this episode is packed with WSOP analysis, poker news, and pro-level takeaways for players and fans. Subscribe for more WSOP recap coverage, poker strategy, fantasy discussion, and Gamble Up! episodes.• 00:00 Introduction and ODB Results Tease• 01:20 World Series of Poker 2026 :RECAP• 04:38 Strategies for large-field fantasy tournaments • 09:15 Playing poker against WSOP Competition • 13:57 Notable Bracelet WINS and Achievements• 20:07 Who will be the first to 20 bracelets?• 24:38 The Foxens’ summer success and top stories of the year.• 32:46 WSOP Fantasy Insights• 34:55 Future plans and community involvement.