Big Is back: Why Europe needs a clear strategy for China

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Lourdes S. Casanova (Cornell University) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) about how Europe should navigate its increasingly complex relationship with China. The discussion explores whether China’s economic rise reflects strategic policy success or systemic distortions, why Chinese multinationals are reshaping global competition, and what Europe’s €360bn trade deficit signals about structural vulnerabilities. The episode also examines the need for EU unity in negotiations, the risks of fragmented national strategies, the role of countries such as Spain in attracting Chinese investment, and whether transatlantic tensions should push Europe closer to Beijing — or instead accelerate efforts to strengthen Europe’s own economic foundations.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Ignacio García Bercero (Bruegel) and Miguel Ángel González-Simón about why trade has become a key stress test for Europe in 2026. They discuss rising transatlantic tensions, the use of tariffs as economic coercion — drawing on García Bercero’s recent Bruegel article — and the EU’s capacity to respond using existing trade defence tools. The conversation also explores Europe’s fragile economic resilience, the impact of uncertainty and trade fragmentation on investment and productivity, and the priorities for the year ahead, from advancing key trade agreements to strengthening the EU single market. 

As 2025 draws to a close, Europe faces a harsher global environment shaped by a more assertive second Trump administration, intensifying economic pressure from China, and persistent internal weaknesses. In this episode of Future is Blue, Iain Begg (LSE) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) argue that Europe’s response over the past year has been largely defensive, constrained by fragmented leadership, stalled internal reforms, and a governance model ill-suited to a world increasingly driven by power and coercion rather than cooperation. They discuss how Trump’s use of “sharp power,” China’s growing trade imbalance with the EU, and Europe’s failure to translate diagnoses such as the Draghi report into action have left the bloc vulnerable. Looking ahead to 2026, both see cautious grounds for optimism — from easing financial conditions to renewed fiscal space — but stress that progress will depend on Europe’s ability to act collectively, particularly in areas such as defence, technology, and capital markets, rather than continuing to rely on national solutions in a geopolitical world.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Guntram Wolff, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Professor of Economics at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, about why Europe is facing a decisive turning point on defence and security. The conversation explores how Europe has underestimated Russia’s capabilities, the growing risks created by dependence on US high-tech military systems, and the implications of a more uncertain transatlantic relationship. Wolff argues that Europe needs a credible “Plan B”: deeper defence cooperation, more coordinated procurement, investment in new military technologies, and sustained support for Ukraine as a core European security interest.

In this episode of Future is Blue, economist Luca Fornaro explains how fiscal policy shapes long-term productivity through public investment, taxation and aggregate demand, and outlines the risks of “fiscal stagnation traps” in high-debt countries. Miguel Ángel González-Simón adds the European perspective, discussing the limits of the EU’s fiscal architecture and the challenges facing Spain. The conversation then turns to trade policy, with Fornaro detailing how tariffs and global tech competition affect the geography of innovation, and González-Simón examining Europe’s dilemma between strategic autonomy and openness. Together, they unpack what Europe must do to revive productivity and stay competitive in a shifting global economy.

IMF’s Romain Duval joins Future is Blue to unpack Europe’s widening productivity gap with the U.S., Spain’s specific challenges, and the three priorities he says can reignite growth: finance, skills, and market integration.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Zach Meyers (CERRE) and Funcas economist Miguel Ángel González-Simón join Carlos Carnicero Urabayen to discuss whether Europe can reconcile digital sovereignty with economic competitiveness. They explore why Europe’s core challenge is a persistent productivity gap, why building an “end-to-end Eurostack” is unrealistic, and how focusing on emerging technologies like AI, quantum, or 6G could offer a path forward. The conversation also highlights Europe’s structural weaknesses — fragmented markets, lack of scale, and underdeveloped capital markets — and stresses the need to embrace disruption, allow innovative firms to grow, and make completing the single market a top priority.You can read here Zach Meyer´s paper on this topic.

In this episode, our guest Ana María Santacreu, Senior Economic Policy Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explains the twin pressures on Europe from rising protectionism and the “cost of openness.” Trade is fragmenting along geopolitical lines—especially in strategic sectors—while capital flows show less decoupling. Europe now faces China as a direct rival at the technological frontier and remains dependent on it for critical minerals and processing, creating choke points. Santacreu highlights three priorities: completing the single market, managing technological rivalry, and reducing supply concentration. She stresses that resilience “starts at home.” Miguel Ángel González-Simón, economist at Funcas, adds the need to advance Capital Markets Union and deepen ties with like-minded partners.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Andrea Renda (CEPS) joins host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen to unpack the implications of the EU’s AI Act and Europe’s broader role in shaping global AI governance. Renda highlights the AI Act as a bold but complex regulatory effort, warning that its global influence may be limited unless backed by stronger investment and innovation capacity. He calls for a "digital social contract" built on corporate accountability, empowered civil society, and digital literacy, while cautioning against the risks of disinformation, labor disruption, and shortsighted automation. Despite these challenges, Renda remains optimistic about AI’s potential—especially in science and sustainability—and urges the EU to launch a large-scale initiative akin to a “CERN for AI” to lead in trustworthy, human-centric innovation. He also recommends two key reads: “Strengthening international cooperation on AI” (CEPS-Brookings) and “Towards a European large‑scale initiative on Artificial Intelligence: What are the options?”, both offering frameworks for Europe's next steps in AI leadership. 

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, about the growing influence of the BRICS+ group and what it means for Europe. They explore how these emerging economies are shifting global power dynamics—not only through faster growth but by leading in key sectors, forming new regional trade blocs, and pushing for financial reform. The conversation highlights the strategic challenges for the EU, from supply chain vulnerabilities to geopolitical competition, and outlines how Europe can stay relevant by deepening internal integration and forging smarter, more balanced partnerships with the Global South.