611. Fareed Zakaria on What Just Happened, and What Comes Next

The 166-year-old chain, which is fighting extinction, calls the parade its “gift to the nation.” With 30 million TV viewers, it’s also a big moneymaker. At least we think it is — Macy’s is famously tight-lipped about parade economics. We try to loosen them up. (Part one of a two-part series.)Please take our audience survey at freakonomics.com/survey. SOURCES:John Cheney, carpenter at Macy’s Studios.Will Coss, vice president and executive producer of Macy’s Studios.Jeff Kinney, author, cartoonist, and owner of An Unlikely Story Bookstore and Café.Kevin Lynch, vice president of global helium at Messer.Jen Neal, executive vice president of live events and specials for NBCUniversal EntertainmentTony Spring, chairman and C.E.O. of Macy's Inc.Jessica Tisch, commissioner of the New York City Department of Sanitation; incoming commissioner of the New York City Police Department.Dawn Tolson, executive director of Citywide Event Coordination and Management and the Street Activity Permit Office for the City of New York. RESOURCES:Macy's: The Store. The Star. The Story., by Robert M. Grippo (2009).History of Macy's of New York, 1853-1919: Chapters in the Evolution of the Department Store, by Ralph M. Hower (1943).Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. EXTRA:The Economics of Everyday Things. 

It’s true that robots (and other smart technologies) will kill many jobs. It may also be true that newer collaborative robots (“cobots”) will totally reinvigorate how work gets done. That, at least, is what the economists are telling us. Should we believe them? SOURCES:David Autor, professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.James Rosenman, C.E.O. of Andrus on Hudson senior care community.Karen Eggleston, economist at Stanford University.Yong Suk Lee, professor of technology, economy, and global affairs at the University of Notre Dame. RESOURCES:"Robots and Labor in Nursing Homes," by Yong Suk Lee, Toshiaki Iizuka, and Karen Eggleston (NBER Working Paper, 2024)."Global Robotics Race: Korea, Singapore and Germany in the Lead," by International Federation of Robotics (2024)."Unmet Need for Equipment to Help With Bathing and Toileting Among Older US Adults," by Kenneth Lam, Ying Shi, John Boscardin, and Kenneth E. Covinsky (JAMA Internal Medicine, 2021)."Robots and Labor in the Service Sector: Evidence from Nursing Homes," by Karen Eggleston, Yong Suk Lee, and Toshiaki Iizuka (NBER Working Papers, 2021).The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines, by David Autor, David Mindell, Elisabeth Reynolds, and the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future (2020)."Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo (University of Chicago Press, 2020)."The Slowdown in Productivity Growth and Policies That Can Restore It," by Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh (The Hamilton Project, 2020)."The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson (NBER Working Papers, 2016)."Deregulation at Heart of Japan's New Robotics Revolution," by Sophie Knight and Kaori Kaneko (Reuters, 2014). EXTRAS:"What Do People Do All Day?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Did China Eat America’s Jobs?" by Freakonomics Radio (2017).

After a dramatic election, Donald Trump has returned from exile. We hear what to expect at home and abroad — and what to do if you didn’t vote for Trump. SOURCE:Fareed Zakaria, journalist and author. RESOURCES:"The Most Dangerous Moment Since the Cold War," by Fareed Zakaria (The Washington Post, 2024)."America’s Failed Approach to Iran Can’t Really Be Called a Strategy," by Fareed Zakaria (The Washington Post, 2024).Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present, by Fareed Zakaria (2024). EXTRAS:"Are We Living Through the Most Revolutionary Period in History?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Are Private Equity Firms Plundering the U.S. Economy?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

Some people want the new cannabis economy to look like the craft-beer movement. Others are hoping to build the Amazon of pot. And one expert would prefer a government-run monopoly. We listen in as they fight it out. (Part four of a four-part series.) SOURCES:Jon Caulkins, professor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.Adam Goers, senior vice president of The Cannabist Company and chairperson of the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform.Yasmin Hurd, director of the Addiction Institute at Mount Sinai.Jared Polis, governor of Colorado.Ryan Stoa, associate professor of law at Louisiana State University. RESOURCES:"Prevalence of and Trends in Current Cannabis Use Among U.S. Youth and Adults, 2013–2022," by Delvon T. Mattingly, Maggie K. Richardson, and Joy L. Hart (Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports, 2024)."Colorado’s Weed Market Is Coming Down Hard and It’s Making Other States Nervous," by Mona Zhang (Politico, 2024)."Reducing Alcohol Consumption, the Nordic Way: Alcohol Monopolies, Marketing Bans and Higher Taxation," by the World Health Organization (2023)."Economic Benefits and Social Costs of Legalizing Recreational Marijuana," by Jason P. Brown, Elior Cohen, and Alison Felix (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper, 2023)."Competition in the Markets for Beer, Wine, and Spirits," by the United States Department of the Treasury (2022)."Alcohol Monopolies," by Robin Room (Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, 2021)."Craft Beer Is the Strangest, Happiest Economic Story in America," by Derek Thompson (The Atlantic, 2018)."Marijuana Discontinuation, Anxiety Symptoms, and Relapse to Marijuana," by Marcel O. Bonn-Miller and Rudolf H. Moos (Addictive Behaviors, 2009). EXTRAS:"Is America Switching from Booze to Weed?" series by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Why Do Your Eyeglasses Cost $1,000?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Should You Trust Private Equity to Take Care of Your Dog?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."Is Dialysis a Test Case of Medicare for All?" by Freakonomics Radio (2021).

Chris Weld worked for years in emergency rooms, then ditched that career and bought an old farm in Massachusetts. He set up a distillery and started making prize-winning spirits. When cannabis was legalized, he jumped into that too — and the first few years were lucrative. But now? It turns out that growing, processing, and selling weed is more complicated than it looks. He gave us the grand tour.  (Part three of a four-part series.) SOURCES:Chris Bennett, operations manager at Berkshire Mountain Distillers.Luca Boldrini, head of cultivation at The Pass.Yasmin Hurd, director of the Addiction Institute at Mount Sinai.Chris Weld, founder and owner of Berkshire Mountain Distillers. RESOURCES:"As America’s Marijuana Use Grows, So Do the Harms," by Megan Twohey, Danielle Ivory, and Carson Kessler (The New York Times, 2024)."Evaluation of Dispensaries’ Cannabis Flowers for Accuracy of Labeling of Cannabinoids Content," by Mona M. Geweda, Chandrani G. Majumdar, Mahmoud A. ElSohly, et al. (Journal of Cannabis Research, 2024)."The Complicated, Risky — but Potentially Lucrative — Business of Selling Cannabis," by James R. Hagerty (The Wall Street Journal, 2023)."Marijuana Content Labels Can’t Be Trusted," by Shira Schoenberg (CommonWealth Beacon, 2022)."Growing Cannabis Indoors Produces a Lot of Greenhouse Gases — Just How Much Depends on Where It’s Grown," by Jason Quinn and Hailey Summers (The Conversation, 2021)."Blood and Urinary Metal Levels Among Exclusive Marijuana Users in NHANES (2005-2018)," by Katlyn E. McGraw, Anne E, Nigra, Tiffany R. Sanchez, et al. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2018)."The Carbon Footprint of Indoor Cannabis Production," by Evan Mills (Energy Policy, 2012). EXTRAS:"Cannabis Is Booming, So Why Isn’t Anyone Getting Rich?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Is America Switching From Booze to Weed?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

With abortion on the Nov. 5 ballot, we look back at Steve Levitt’s controversial research about an unintended consequence of Roe v. Wade. SOURCES:John Donohue, professor of law at Stanford Law School.Steve Levitt, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago and host of People I (Mostly) Admire.Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, professor of economics at Amherst College. RESOURCES:“The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime Over the Last Two Decades,” by John J. Donohue and Steven D. Levitt (The National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019).“The Demise of the Death Penalty in Connecticut,” by John J. Donohue (Stanford Law School Legal Aggregate, 2016).“Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime,” by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes (The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2007).“The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime,” by John J. Donohue and Steven D. Levitt (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001).“State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policies, Providers, Politics, Demographics, and Economic Environment,” by Rebecca M. Blank, Christine C. George, and Rebecca A. London (The National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994). EXTRAS:"John Donohue: 'I’m Frequently Called a Treasonous Enemy of the Constitution,'" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2021).

There are a lot of reasons, including heavy regulations, high taxes, and competition from illegal weed shops. Most operators are losing money and waiting for Washington to get out of the way. In the meantime, it’s not that easy being green. (Part two of a four-part series.) SOURCES:Jon Caulkins, professor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.Adam Goers, senior vice president of The Cannabist Company and chairperson of the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform.Precious Osagie-Erese, founder and C.E.O. of Precious Canna Co.Nikesh Patel, C.E.O. of Mammoth Distribution.Nikesh Patel, director of the San Francisco Office of Cannabis.Tom Standage, deputy editor of The Economist. RESOURCES:"Most Americans Favor Legalizing Marijuana for Medical, Recreational Use," (Pew Research Center, 2024)."Whitney Economics U.S. Legal Cannabis Forecast - 2024 - 2035," by Beau Whitney (Whitney Economics, 2024)."Beer Sellers Use a Loophole to Break Into Weed Drinks Market," by Redd Brown (Bloomberg, 2024)."Cannabis Producer Seeks Boston Beer Merger," by Lauren Thomas (The Wall Street Journal, 2024)."California's 'Apple Store of Weed' Declares Bankruptcy With $410M in Debt," by Lester Black (SFGate, 2024)."Is the State Democratic Chair Influencing Who Can Sell Legal Weed in this N.J. City?" by Jelani Gibson (NJ.com, 2023)."When Prohibition Works: Comparing Fireworks and Cannabis Regulations, Markets, and Harms," by Jonathan P. Caulkins and Kristina Vaia Reimer (International Journal of Drug Policy, 2023)."Did Minnesota Accidentally Legalize Weed?" by Paul Demko (Politico, 2022). EXTRAS:"Is America Switching From Booze to Weed?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).

We have always been a nation of drinkers — but now there are more daily users of cannabis than alcohol. Considering alcohol’s harms, maybe that’s a good thing. But some people worry that the legalization of cannabis has outpaced the research. (Part one of a four-part series.) SOURCES:Jon Caulkins, professor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.Yasmin Hurd, director of the Addiction Institute at Mount Sinai.Michael Siegel, professor of public health and community medicine at Tufts University.Tom Standage, deputy editor of The Economist.Ryan Stoa, associate professor of law at Louisiana State University. RESOURCES:"Cannabis Tops Alcohol as Americans’ Daily Drug of Choice," by Christina Caron (The New York Times, 2024)."Deaths from Excessive Alcohol Use — United States, 2016–2021," by Marissa B. Esser, Adam Sherk, Yong Liu, and Timothy S. Naimi (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 2024)."Nixon Started the War on Drugs. Privately, He Said Pot Was ‘Not Particularly Dangerous,'" by Ernesto Londoño (The New York Times, 2024)."A Brief Global History of the War on Cannabis," by Ryan Stoa (The MIT Press Reader, 2020).Craft Weed: Family Farming and the Future of the Marijuana Industry, by Ryan Stoa (2018)."How the Sugar Industry Shifted Blame to Fat," by Anahad O’Connor (The New York Times, 2016)."The Perils of Ignoring History: Big Tobacco Played Dirty and Millions Died. How Similar Is Big Food?" by Kelly D. Brownell and Kenneth E. Warner (The Milbank Quarterly, 2009).A History Of The World In Six Glasses, by Tom Standage (2005)."Cancer and Coronary Artery Disease Among Seventh-Day Adventists," by E. L. Wynder, F. R. Lemon, and I. J. Bross (Cancer, 1959). EXTRAS:"Why Is the Opioid Epidemic Still Raging?" series by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."Daron Acemoglu on Economics, Politics, and Power," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2024)."Let’s Be Blunt: Marijuana Is a Boon for Older Workers," by Freakonomics Radio (2021)."What’s More Dangerous: Marijuana or Alcohol?" by Freakonomics Radio (2014).

Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University. RESOURCES:"A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen," by Eric Posner (Project Syndicate, 2023).The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, by Eric Posner (2020)."The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, 2013)."Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007)."Historical Presidential Betting Markets," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004). EXTRAS:"Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).“Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?” by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."How Much Does the President Really Matter?" by Freakonomics Radio (2010).

Sure, we all pay lip service to the Madisonian system of checks and balances. But presidents have been steadily expanding the reach of the job. With an election around the corner, we updated our 2016 conversation with the legal scholar Eric Posner — who has some good news and some not-so-good news about the power of the presidency. (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCE:Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.   RESOURCES:"Presidential Leadership and the Separation of Powers," by Eric Posner (Daedalus, 2016).The Executive Unbound: After the Madisonian Republic, by Eric Posner and Adrian Vermeule (2010). EXTRA:"Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?" by Freakonomics Radio (2020).