Is the Summer Market Pullback Here? - Jim Welsh #6404

Are we on the verge of global peace, or is the market pricing in a reality that doesn't exist? Kerry Lutz sits down with macro analyst Jim Welsh of Macro Tides to dissect the massive shifts rocking the global economy. While the mid-month geopolitical headlines sent oil prices down and stocks into immediate fragmentation, Jim issues a stark warning that the market is celebrating too early. He details a looming oil supply shortfall over the next six months that could trigger a major "oh sh*t" moment for investors, potentially spiking crude back to $150–$200 a barrel. The duo also breaks down the reality of EV demand destruction, upcoming midterm election risks, and why current tech valuations—including the rumored Tesla/SpaceX merger—closely mirror historic market bubbles like RCA in the 1920s and Amazon in 2000. For investors trying to navigate late-summer volatility, Jim's technical breakdown on equities and precious metals reads like an active playbook. He predicts a looming 5% to 7% pullback for the S&P 500 by July and August, followed by a massive rally above 8,000. Meanwhile, gold and silver bulls might need to brace for impact; Jim explains why gold's current "Wave 4" correction isn't over yet and could temporarily drag prices below $4,000 before its next explosive leg up. Tune in to get the macroeconomic reality check you need to insulate your portfolio. Want a deeper look at the charts? Find Jim here: https://www.macrotides.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Dale Smothers of RDS Wealth joined Kerry Lutz to examine the latest economic and market developments. With inflation remaining stubbornly elevated at 4.2%, Dale explains why investors continue moving into finite assets like gold while growing concerns over fiat currencies, geopolitical conflicts, and rising oil prices fuel uncertainty. The discussion explores the surge of interest in artificial intelligence investments and the anticipated SpaceX IPO. While acknowledging the excitement surrounding both, Dale cautions investors against chasing opportunities out of fear of missing out, suggesting patience may provide better entry points after initial market enthusiasm fades. They also discuss how global instability has strengthened the appeal of U.S. markets and the dollar as perceived safe havens for international capital. Dale highlights the growing risks of a "K-shaped" economy, where government spending, rising debt, and asset inflation increasingly separate asset owners from renters and wage earners. Looking ahead, Dale believes investors should remain disciplined, monitor geopolitical developments and corporate earnings, and consider an equal-weighted index strategy as market leadership potentially broadens beyond the technology sector. Find Dale here: https://rdsmotherswealth.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this Substack Live interview, Kerry Lutz sits down with Dennis Kneale to discuss his new book, Oregoners: How One State Chased Away Business and People. Kneale argues that Oregon serves as a warning for the rest of the country, detailing how decades of government policies contributed to business flight, job losses, rising crime, homelessness, and economic decline. The conversation explores the impact of environmental regulations on Oregon's once-thriving logging industry, Portland's struggles with vacancies and public safety, and the broader consequences of political decision-making. Lutz and Kneale also examine underreported developments involving the Panama Canal, Venezuela, fentanyl enforcement efforts, and the ongoing debate over climate policies and carbon emissions. Their discussion offers a candid look at government policy, economic growth, and the challenges facing states across America. Find Dennis here: https://denniskneale.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Kerry Lutz sits down with Jeff Dornik, founder and CEO of Pickax and host of The Jeff Dornik Show, to examine the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and its impact on society, work, and personal freedom. Jeff shares concerns echoed by leading tech figures about large-scale workforce displacement and the growing possibility that human labor could become increasingly obsolete. The discussion explores what happens when traditional work and purpose begin to disappear, and how that shift could contribute to a broader social and psychological crisis. Kerry and Jeff also dig into the political and civil liberties implications of advanced AI systems, including the risks of centralized data control, government overreach, and expanding surveillance capabilities. Drawing comparisons to past expansions of federal power, they emphasize the urgent need for safeguards to protect free speech, privacy, and intellectual property as AI becomes more deeply embedded in society. Jeff also discusses Pickax, a human-centered social platform designed to reduce algorithmic manipulation and encourage open dialogue. Find Jeff here: https://www.jeffdornik.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Kerry Lutz sits down with Dr. Steve Bonta to discuss the growing intersection of geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and economic change. They examine rising tensions with Iran, potential disruptions to global energy markets, and instability in Venezuela and Cuba. The conversation then shifts to AI's rapid evolution, comparing today's technology boom to the early days of the internet. Bonta explains how AI is already transforming industries ranging from law and government to medicine and scientific research, while also creating new challenges involving fraud, surveillance, and regulation. They also explore the infrastructure demands of AI, including the growing need for energy, water, and advanced computing power. While both see enormous potential for innovation and productivity, they caution that the technology's long-term impact will depend on how society manages its risks and opportunities. Find Steve here: https://thenewamerican.com/author/steve-bonta/  Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Kerry Lutz and Mike Manwell of Rethinking the Dollar examine the Federal Reserve's next move, rising macroeconomic risks, and the growing strain of U.S. debt markets. The discussion focuses on the Fed's "great decision" as inflation remains elevated while roughly $10 trillion in Treasury debt comes due. They explore whether policymakers will lean toward rate cuts and renewed monetary accommodation to ease fiscal pressure, and what that could mean for the dollar, markets, and global financial stability. The conversation also covers geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization risks, and the potential for major global events to accelerate emergency policy responses. Throughout the episode, they stress the importance of understanding monetary systems and preparing for increased uncertainty. Gold and silver are highlighted as key hedges, with emphasis on physical ownership, market structure concerns, and long-term purchasing power. The episode closes with practical insights on navigating an increasingly fragile economic and geopolitical environment. Find Mike here: RethinkingTheDollar Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this episode of the Financial Survival Network, Kerry Lutz and Bill Walton examine the major political, economic, and geopolitical forces shaping America and the global investment landscape. They discuss rising tensions with Iran and the complexities of military outcomes in the region, the uncertain future of Cuba after decades of economic stagnation, and broader efforts across Latin America to counter Chinese influence. The conversation also highlights how domestic economic concerns continue to outweigh foreign policy for most voters. A major focus of the discussion is the accelerating wave of capital flowing into the United States. From airports and highways to rail and infrastructure development, they explore why investors are increasingly viewing America as the most attractive destination for long-term capital compared to Europe and China. The episode also covers urban challenges and revitalization efforts in major U.S. cities, including issues around governance, homelessness, and infrastructure renewal in places like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. Finally, they address concerns over federal spending inefficiencies and the potential scale of waste reduction if accountability measures were meaningfully enforced. A wide-ranging conversation on geopolitics, investment flows, infrastructure growth, and America's economic trajectory as it approaches its 250th anniversary. Find Bill here: https://thebillwaltonshow.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Kerry Lutz and Susan Porsky of Phoenix Capital Group break down what the latest employment data is really telling us about the economy, the markets, and retirement planning. While job numbers came in slightly better than expected, Susan explains that both hiring and firing have slowed dramatically, creating a labor market that appears stable on the surface but may be signaling deeper changes underneath. The discussion then turns to retirement planning and the growing importance of protecting against sequence-of-returns risk. With higher yields now available for the first time in years, investors and retirees may need to rethink old strategies and consider a more conservative approach to preserving wealth while still participating in market gains. Susan also shares her thoughts on opportunities beyond the headline AI stocks. Rather than chasing the biggest names, she points to the infrastructure powering the AI boom, including data centers, utilities, energy providers, and related ETFs. The conversation also covers SpaceX, IPO hype, and alternative ways to gain exposure without taking unnecessary risks. A timely discussion on retirement security, changing market conditions, and where smart investors may be looking next. Find Susan here: https://phx.financial  Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Are your current investments quietly evaporating? In this episode of the Financial Survival Network, host Kerry Lutz sits down with Kim Isken from Tuttle Capital Management to help you avoid the stocks melting ice cube trap. They dive into a groundbreaking new approach to investing in a rapidly changing economy. As a massive structural shift occurs in the markets, traditional "value" stocks risk becoming melting ice cubes, while companies anchored by massive physical footprints are poised to thrive. Tune in to discover why old market plays are failing and how to protect your portfolio today. Key Takeaways from the Episode: The "Halo" Thesis: If human cognition and intelligence become virtually free, what survives? The answer lies in heavy, tangible assets that cannot be replicated by an AI chatbot. Industries Impervious to Disruption: Why industrials, energy producers, utilities, railways, and consumer durables (like Oreos!) hold competitive moats that cannot be breached. The Downstream Beneficiaries: How heavy asset sectors double as critical infrastructure providers—because data centers don't run without massive power grids and energy. The Death of Traditional Value Investing: Why hunting for "cheap" stocks based on old metrics is increasingly dangerous, as many of these firms are facing structural declines. Find Kim here: https://www.tuttlecap.com/ Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

In this episode of the Financial Survival Network, host Kerry Lutz sits down with long-time market analyst Jerry Robinson from followthemoney.com to break down the highly unconventional state of the 2026 global economy. Despite rising inflation indicators, a looming shift in Federal Reserve leadership, and escalating geopolitical tensions, the stock market continues to hit all-time highs. Robinson shares exclusive charts to reveal how strong underlying earnings in big tech are propping up the market, creating a massive divergence from what traditional economic models would predict. The duo unpacks the critical tension between rising treasury yields and Wall Street's inflation anxieties, while exploring how commodities like gold, silver, and oil are navigating these turbulent cycles. The conversation then shifts to the powerful, disruptive wave of artificial intelligence and its physical manifestation through the massive boom in data centers. Lutz and Robinson discuss the immense resource strain these data centers place on power grid infrastructure, emphasizing that the U.S. must adopt an "all-of-the-above" energy strategy to stay competitive in the global AI arms race against China. From Tesla's full self-driving capabilities to the transformation of the corporate workforce and the elimination of workplace drudgery, they view AI not as a threat, but as an unprecedented tool for human productivity. Wrap your head around the rapidly approaching future, hear an update on Kerry's latest legal battles against data-harvesting apps, and discover why the world may look completely unrecognizable in the next 18 months. Find Jerry here: https://followthemoney.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5