Weekly market recap - Friday, 5-Nov

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Tech was a notable underperformer with disappointing results from Oracle exacerbating the negative sentiment surrounding AI infrastructure. Additionally, Google lagged after the (expected) rollout of the new GPT 5.2 model, given recent enthusiasm over its Gemini 3 release.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending just a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 105bps, 67bps, and 33bps respectively. FOMC in focus today with a 25 bp rate cut, three dissents, forward guidance tweak and plans to purchase $40B/month in Treasury bills. Elsewhere, Q3 ECI rose 80bps, a bit below Q2's 90bps and just shy of consensus. GE Vernova providing some positive AI-related commentary ahead of Oracle and Broadcom results. Sanguine conference commentary on US consumer, buyback tailwinds among other highlights of the day.

US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, off best levels. There were not a lot of big directional drivers with the market largely in waiting mode for FOMC on Wednesday and some key AI events, including AVGO and ORCL earnings and a new OpenAI model. Analyst day and sell-side conference presentations were driving some of the more notable movers

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Rate backup was one of the bigger stories for today as a hawkish cut has become the consensus for Wednesday's FOMC. AI was another key press theme over the weekend, which included focus on a positive broader market sentiment given reasonable valuations, and AI optimism.

US equities were higher this week, adding to last week's gains which saw the S&P 500 post its seventh straight positive month in November. November ADP notably undershot expectations to the lowest since Mar-23. There were some positive takeaways from high-profile tech earnings this week along with another wave of AI-related partnerships and announcements.

There was very little readthrough in Thursday trading as stocks struggled for overall direction with much more seemingly going on beneath the surface. The shift from micro to macro has been the story this week with a busy sell-side conference calendar and more tech and retail earnings. In addition, when it comes to the key inputs for the market narrative, there are lots of moving pieces as of late surrounding the Fed, AI, the labor market and consumers. 

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading though stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 86bbps, 30bps, and 17bps respectively. Themes of the day highlighted in mixed headlines regarding Microsoft customer AI adoption versus Marvell data center growth. Softening labor market, support for more Fed cuts, also highlighted in November ADP private payrolls falling 32K versus expectations to increase by~10K, while Industrial Production met, and ISM Services and S&P Services PMI came in ahead. December FOMC decision on deck for next week, with probably of additional 25bp cut just below 90%.

US equities higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, though off best levels. Busy on the AI front. Biggest takeaway seems to revolve around how disruption/upheaval headlines have become increasingly embedded in the broader AI narrative and are driving more volatility/dispersion in the price action. 

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.