Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 12-Nov

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, ending off best levels after an uneventful afternoon, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing up 11bps, and 2bps, while the Nasdaq closed down 26bps. Big headline today was October's in-line core CPI print in contrast to some fears for a hotter number. Report improved market-based odds for a 25bp cut in December with Fedwatch noting just an ~18% chance of a pause, down from 41% yesterday. Multiple media outlets projected GOP will retain majority in the House, though several races remain uncalled.

US equities ended lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels.  No one specific factor at work, though renewed bond yield backup getting some attention. NFIB small business sentiment ticked up by 2.2 points to 93.7 in October.

US equities closed higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, hovering around the unchanged mark after a bit of morning strength. As expected, it was a quiet session given the federal holiday, sparse earnings, no economic releases, and quiet Fedspeak – all factors which will ramp up later this week. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance remains higher coming out of last week's election.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended the week at fresh record highs. The Trump election victory sparked a big rally across risk assets. Treasuries sold off sharply following Trump's election victory on inflationary concerns, but ended only slightly weaker on the short end and firmer on the long end on thoughts policy measures might not be enacted as quickly as expected. November FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp cut, as expected, to 4.5-4.75% in a unanimous decision. With 90% of S&P 500 companies now having reported for Q3 EPS growth still pacing ahead of quarter-end expectations.

US equities were mostly higher in Thursday trading. The FOMC announcement was the big story of the day, with the Fed opting for a 25 basis point cut as expected. . It was fairly quiet elsewhere as some of yesterday's election-related outperformers trim outsized gains.

Stocks posted a sizable rally as the S&P 500 put in its best session in over two years, sparked by the Trump election victory and a potential for a Red Sweep (House still not yet decided). Today's Treasury auction of 25 billion dollars of 30-year bonds was well received. The FOMC announcement and the Powell press conference is set for Thursday afternoon, with the Fed widely expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut, while Powell is likely to stress data dependency when it comes to policy decisions going forward.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Upside tabbed to latest data that offered softer/no-landing support, with ISM services showing improvements in both employment and inflation metrics. October ISM services beat, highest since Jul-22. New orders decelerated, but employment back in expansion territory and prices index continued to slow.

US equities were mostly lower and mixed in Monday trading, though stocks finished off worst levels. A very quiet session today as the market waits for some key catalysts this week, notably tomorrow’s US election, a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, China’s NPC meeting, and 103 more S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. In macro news, factory orders declined largely in line with expectations, down for the fourth time the in last five months in September.

Major US equity indices were down for the week. Earnings reports dominated the calendar, with some mixed takeaways from the five Mag-7 names on the schedule. The week's big economic report was Friday's nonfarm payrolls release for October, showing only 12K in job gains for the month (and revising down August and September by a combined 112K jobs).

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. Today's risk-off atmosphere was largely a function of disappointing Mag 7 earnings, though there was nothing in the results or guidance to really shift the favorable narrative surrounding the AI secular growth theme. On the economic front, initial jobless claims are down again, down 12K week over week to 216K versus consensus 227K.