Evening Market Recap - Monday, 31-Aug

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended well off the morning's weakness. A rotation out of the AI infrastructure space was today's big story. There’s also a lot of anticipation ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapping two-week winning streaks. Iran conflict and energy-market spillovers remained a major market headwind, with increased kinetic activity and dwindling diplomatic off-ramps pushing WTI and Brent above $100 and US diesel above $6/gallon. August CPI came in slightly hotter than expected and strengthened the case for a September Fed hike.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. The market was on the defensive against continued strength in crude and a notable jump in Treasury yields. WTI is crude now up for the eighth consecutive session (and up ~20% over that stretch) with a focus on Mideast headlines, particularly regarding Houthi influence over Bab el-Mandeb strait.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, extending Tuesday's declines. The defensive tone once again chalked up to continued escalation in kinetic activity in the Middle East (and no diplomatic off-ramps in sight) that pushed oil back to four-month highs. Rates were also a headwind, tabbed in part to oil as well as underwhelming Treasury buyback announcement.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as major averages ended near session lows. Defensive tilt chalked up to latest hawkish US/Iran updates following weekend ramp in kinetic activity.

US equities were modestly higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up less than 1% but higher for a second straight week (and fifth week in the past six). The Iran war narrative was fairly choppy, as kinetic activity resumed over the weekend, though was fairly limited in scope. August headline payrolls were up +162K m/m, well ahead of +55K consensus.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. The move to the upside was tabbed in large part to rate stabilization following Fed Governor Waller's remarks offering support for a September rate hold if data showed continued disinflation progress. September hike probabilities now seen as just above 50% vs odds near 68% on Tuesday.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, a bit off best levels. It was a very quiet, low volume session as the market bounced following a three-day losing streak that was largely chalked up to higher rates, higher energy prices, hawkish central bank reaction function concerns, elevated geopolitical tensions, dampened positive macro surprise momentum and seasonal headwinds.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, with stocks ending not far off worst levels amid upward pressure on rates/oil and AI trade weakness. July JOLTS job openings missed at 7.27M, while June revised down to lowest since February.

US equities were lower in Monday trading, though ended the day off worst levels. The latest Middle East escalation/higher oil prices were seemingly the excuse for the decline. Rates remain in focus with a lot of moving pieces in the takeaways surrounding Warsh's Jackson Hole speech last Friday.