#17 - Hannes Mueller: Conflict Forecasting, Fragility, and AI

Dina Saleh is the Regional Director of the Near East, North Africa, and Europe Division at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) – the only specialized global development institution exclusively focused on rural transformation. With more than 20 years of international experience, Dina has spearheaded agriculture and rural development initiatives across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. She has also worked with both the private sector and international organizations like the UN, gaining a unique perspective on development across fragile and conflict-affected regions. We begin our conversation by exploring Dina’s journey, starting with her early life in Yemen and Kenya, where agriculture was intrinsic to her formative years through her family’s business in agricultural trade and her schooling. This sparked her passion for rural development and gave her firsthand insights into how food systems work, ultimately leading to her current role at IFAD. We then move on to the multifaceted challenges of working in fragile states like Somalia & Sudan, where conflict, climate change, and the lack of infrastructure severely hinder agricultural productivity. Dina discusses the delicate balance of working with both pastoralists and settled farmers, addressing conflicts over land and resources through innovative infrastructure solutions, as well as community-driven governance. Our discussion also delves into gender dynamics in rural development. Dina shares a striking example from Sudan, where women were initially barred from engaging in agricultural development initiatives. Working with local leaders, IFAD was able to empower women to participate in economic activities like food processing and home-based production. These success stories underscore the importance of patience and sustained effort in achieving long-term development goals. Tune in to hear more about the role of agriculture in poverty reduction and how organizations like IFAD are adapting their strategies to meet the complex and dynamic needs of fragile states! ***** Dina Saleh IFAD: https://www.ifad.org/en/w/people/dina-saleh ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES: Updated approach to IFAD engagement in fragile situations https://www.ifad.org/en/w/publications/updated-approach-to-ifad-engagement-in-fragile-situations TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:08 Dina’s story  00:03:19 Subsistence farming & the shift to commercialization  00:06:11 The roots of fragility in Yemen 00:08:35 Agriculture as a path to poverty reduction  00:12:19 Defining food systems  00:13:49 IFAD’s approach to nutrition in rural communities 00:16:18 What makes food systems fragile or resilient 00:18:12 Key trends in agriculture 00:20:00 What is IFAD? 00:23:26 IFAD in Somalia 00:28:44 Investment tools 00:31:18 IFAD’s financial instruments 00:33:15 How IFAD’s financing helps vulnerable populations 00:35:30 Role of technology in helping farmers 00:39:20 IFAD’s engagement in fragile contexts 00:45:20 Balancing crisis response & prevention 00:49:29 Measuring impact & results in fragile states 00:52:58 Working in conflict zones 00:56:15 Real-life challenges in fragile communities 00:59:45 Gender-specific challenges in rural development 01:03:30 Development misconceptions 01:08:19 Food self-sufficiency vs. trade 01:12:02 Fair trade & value for farmers 01:14:36 Water - food - energy nexus 01:18:05 Obstacles to coordination 01:20:15 Role of fertilizer  01:22:28 Hope for the future 01:25:27 Wrap-up

Philippe Vogeleer is a chartered director specialized in partnerships between companies, governments, and international organizations. Until March 2024 he was the Global Head of Corporate Business Development for Vodafone. Prior to joining Vodafone, Philippe held senior positions for Ooredoo, Orange, and Deloitte. He has lived in 10 countries and worked in more than 100. He holds a master’s degree in law, a master’s degree in media and communications, and an Executive MBA. Philippe now advises a small number of companies as Non-Executive Director and supports the work of international charities, including Global Citizen. He is also a Visiting Lecturer at INSEAD. We start our conversation by learning about Philippe’s international background, his early interest in human development, and how he discovered the importance of mobile phones and satellite technology. We then take a stroll through the decades with Philippe highlighting the big business opportunities for the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector in each time period - from radio waves in the 1980s and 90s, to networks and services in the 2000s and 2010s. He also reminds us that most people don’t have a laptop, accessing digital tools only on mobile phones, and that today’s opportunity lies in bringing access to the devices.   We then shift to discussing how we can define the ICT sector and what we mean by digitalization. Also, we ask Philippe to help us understand what fragility looks like on the ground, from an ICT perspective, and how the ICT industry and digitalization can help counter fragility. This leads us to talk about what is needed to build a business case in fragile states or even in conflict areas, how you can engage external partners, and how to convince internal decision makers to take on the risk of investing under more difficult conditions. We also discuss the benefits of digitalization for governments, the main obstacles to closing the digital divide, and the role of AI in digitalization. We wrap up our conversation by considering the finite nature of money, how it can best catalyze digitalization, and the potential future for the ICT industry. Watch or listen to the episode for so many more insights from Philippe Vogeleer! ***** Philippe Vogeleer [email protected] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-partners-for-digital-development ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:11 Philippe’s background – people, places, ideas that charted his path 00:08:16 ICT’s big business opportunities through the decades 00:14:02 What is digitalization? What is the ICT sector? 00:18:13 What is fragility? What does it look like from an ICT perspective? 00:26:15 How can ICT and digitalization help counter fragility? 00:34:30 The business case for digitalization in fragile states and low-income countries 00:45:31 Digitalization benefits for governments 00:54:30 Obstacles to closing the digital divide 01:00:28 The role of AI in digitalization: risks or benefits 01:08:56 The finite nature of money & how to best catalyze digitalization 01:14:01 Potential future for the ICT industry 01:21:03 Wrap-up

Stefan Dercon is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford University, where he also directs the Center for the Study of African Economics. The author of 5 books and many studies, Stefan has had a distinguished career as an academic and policy advisor on economic development. His accomplishments are many. To name just a few:  between 2011 and 2017, he was Chief Economist of the Department of International Development (DFID), the government department in charge with the UK’s aid policy and spending; between 2020-2022, he was the Development Policy Advisor to successive Foreign Secretaries at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Stefan is a virtuoso of development! His approach to our conversation was equal parts exciting and instructive, a style that also comes across in his writing, making his book very hard to put down. We start by learning about Stefan: his experience growing up in Belgium, being taught by Catholic priests about African socialism, Ujamaa and Julius Nyerere, and Marx and discovering his interest in economics as a means of pursuing development. His early career in Tanzania and Ethiopia highlighted the relationship between risk and poverty and the need to consider uncertainty when engaging in policy advice or research. We then shift to talking about the four propositions that compete as diagnoses of core problems of poverty and development that Stefan outlines in his book: poor initial endowments, market failures that trap the poor in poverty, market failures that are costly for poor countries, weak institutions. He gives us an overview and tells us why the propositions fall short on explaining the successes and failures of development. We also talk about the most important trends in development in recent decades: the dramatic decrease in poverty globally, the Africanization of poverty, and the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states. The conversation then turns to the elites, what values drive them, and why would they gamble on a development bargain.  We talk about the role of natural resources, political systems, and how external actors can influence the emergence of development bargains. We also discuss the role of Western and Chinese elites in development bargains and what is good policy advice. ***** Stefan Dercon Website: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/people/stefan-dercon X: https://twitter.com/gamblingondev LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/stefan-dercon-45927b104 ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - x.com/alexmmitran, linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran EPISODE RESOURCES Stefan Dercon, “Gambling on Development: Why some Countries Win and Others Lose,” Hurst, London, 2022. https://www.gamblingondevelopment.com TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:24 Stefan’s background 00:02:49 Economics of poverty 00:04:16 Connection between risk & poverty 00:08:16 Brief overview of development thinking 00:14:57 Recent trends in development 00:19:55 The Africanization of poverty & What is fragility 00:25:39 The problem of fixed mental models of fragility 00:28:47 Who are the elites 00:41:11 The gambling in development bargains 00:47:24 What values drive the elites 00:54:25 Natural resource & political systems in dev. bargains 00:58:51 The role of Western & Chinese elites in dev. bargains 01:09:14 Are the elite bargains in the West still dev. bargains 01:19:09 Citizens’ role in dev. bargains 01:29:22 External actors & the emergence of dev. bargains 01:41:28 “Peace is ugly” – can international institutions accept it 01:51:20 Development is 50% history & 50% agency 02:00:40 Private sector role in the dev. bargain 02:09:48 What is good policy advice 02:19:56 Wrap-up

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master’s program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others. This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers. Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you’re interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you! ***** Hannes Mueller Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review. Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236. TIMESTAMPS (00:00:00) Introduction (00:01:17) Hannes’s background (00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia (00:05:42) How Hannes’s interest in politics shapes his research (00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity (00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services (00:22:06) What is fragility (00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict (00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict (00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility (00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding (00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility (00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting (00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem (00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention (01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention? (01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model (01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo (01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn’t ask (01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention (01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making (01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons (01:54:22) Hannes’s data wish list (02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model’s performance (02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis (02:08:45) Future research goals (02:13:08) Institutional myopia (02:15:27) Should we bring back salons (02:19:15) Wrap-up

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” was published on October 17, 2023. This was an incredibly interesting conversation and full of insights about the fragility present right now in one of the most prosperous countries in the world! We start by talking about how Seth’s experience with fragility around the world helped him spot the fragility present in America’s own neighborhoods and what motivated him to write the book. We then discuss what fragile neighborhoods look like, what makes a neighborhood fragile, and the role of norms and close relationships in the fragility of our communities. Seth makes the point that fragility is about relationships, whether those are found at the local community level, between communities, or at level of national institutions – and the nature of those relationships or their absence is what makes fragility emerge. We also talk about why we have fragile neighborhoods and what policies and factors have contributed the most to this problem. Our conversation touches upon the role of public service and on the “poverty-industrial-complex” & institutional obstacles to addressing fragility in neighborhoods. Seth also makes the case for the value of prevention in terms of saving social, human, and economic capital and highlights marriage as one of the institutions that can help prevent social decay. We wrap up our conversation by discussing the need for reviving the American Dream and bringing back into our neighborhoods the robust institutions and instincts for civil society that Alexis de Tocqueville observed two centuries ago.   Listen to the episode and read Seth’s book for so many more ideas on how we can help neighborhoods exit fragility! ***** Dr. Seth D. Kaplan Website: https://sethkaplan.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28 Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13 Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/ Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSG ***** Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:32 Seth’s experience 00:04:00 What fragile neighborhoods look like? 00:10:21 Why Seth wrote this book? 00:16:48 The role of norms & closeness in relationships 00:24:30 Migration & social cohesion in neighborhoods 00:30:19 What's not working? 00:37:25 Problems in fragile neighborhoods 00:41:50 Homelessness 00:48:54 Why we have fragile neighborhoods? 00:57:34 The hero’s journey: rethinking meritocracy 01:06:07 Placemaking & the role of jobs 01:12:44 The role of public service & elected politicians 01:17:38 The poverty industrial complex: obstacles to well being 01:26:50 Fragility prevention in neighborhoods 01:34:13 Lessons for international development 01:41:07 The case for reviving the American Dream 01:55:43 Wrap-up

Laura Frigenti is the Chief Executive Officer of the Global Partnership for Education (GPE). She has had an amazing career in international development working across Latin America, Africa, and Europe over almost four decades. Laura has held leadership positions in national government agencies, the World Bank, NGOs, and the private sector. Throughout her career, she focused on a range of issues, from trade and private sector development, to infrastructure, financial sector reform, and education. Laura was appointed Director General of the Italian Overseas Development Agency, with the responsibility of setting up the newly created agency. Laura also served as chief of staff to the President of the World Bank. We start by talking about Laura’s journey, from growing up in Italy to how studying abroad sparked her interest in development. We move on to Laura’s views on development, the main obstacles that stand in the way of achieving development (political will, resources, and human capital), and how we can foster the political will necessary for development to take place. Laura then also shares with us her perspective on the evolution of thinking around fragility and how, over the last 20 years, it has become clear that fragility is a global problem. She highlights two main dimensions of fragility - individual and institutional - and how widespread institutional fragility acts as an obstacle to overcoming individual fragility. Our conversation then focuses on education. We discuss the relationship between education and fragility, the key challenges facing the education sector today, and the need for education to create skills that are needed by the private sector. Laura sees education as foundational and going beyond individual learning - it is the cornerstone to creating a strong state, economic growth, political stability, as well as a stronger and more stable society. We also talk about the role of technology in closing existing educational gaps and whether technology can help increase access to education for girls in places like Afghanistan. Laura then explains the need for a new narrative for education in the midst of competing global crises and helps us understand the Global Partnership for Education’s unique approach. Listen to the episode for so many more insights on development and education from Laura Frigenti! ***** Laura Frigenti Website: https://www.globalpartnership.org/who-we-are/ceo Twitter: https://twitter.com/GPECEO ***** About the Global Partnership for Education  GPE is a shared commitment to ending the world’s learning crisis. We mobilize partners and funds to support nearly 90 lower-income countries to transform their education systems so that every girl and boy can get the quality education they need to unlock their full potential and contribute to building a better world.  For more than 20 years, GPE has mobilized partners and funds to get 160 million more girls and boys in school and improve learning in partner countries around the world.   To learn more: https://www.globalpartnership.org Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpforeducation TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Introduction 01:29 Laura’s background 04:11 What is development? 06:37 Top three obstacles in the way of development 08:37 Options to foster political will 13:17 A perspective on fragility today 16:46 The relationship between education & fragility 23:53 The key challenges facing the education sector today 30:15 Is there a smell test for new ideas, new plans, grand strategies to change? 36:15 Education that responds to private sector needs 39:36 The role of technology in closing existing educational gaps 44:59 Can technology help increase access to learning for girls? 48:13 The need for a new narrative for education 52:33 The Global Partnership for Education’s approach 56:37 When will our planet be fully literate and numerate? 58:50 Wrap-up

Dan Runde is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he directs the Project on Prosperity and Development. He previously worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development (or USAID), the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, and in investment banking with experience in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Dan recently wrote a new book called "The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power." This is the first book in decades to look at U.S. non-military power through the lens of great power competition. He is also the host of "Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy," a podcast series focused on updating the United States’ soft power playbook to meet the hopes and aspirations of developing countries. This was an incredibly fun conversation and chock-full of insights! We start by talking about Dan’s path, from growing up in a family that taught him the importance of public service, to his experience of working for USAID, the World Bank’s IFC, and currently for CSIS. Dan then talks about his views as a conservative internationalist, and why we need the trade, security, and multilateral system that was designed and built by the US, in partnership with others, after WWII. He goes on to highlight that while the system is necessary, it cannot function in the absence of leadership and asks us to imagine which set of values we would rather have shape the world we live in. We then shift to how global development is going to be increasingly refracted through the lens of great power competition, where the tools of soft power become even more critical. Dan’s framing of development as applied foreign policy helps make the concept more real and applicable. We also discuss the areas of cooperation between US and Europe, as well as some of the tensions still present between these long-standing partners. Afterwards, we touch upon the thorny topic of mining, minerals, and climate change and the much-needed realization that decarbonization doesn't mean dematerialization. Our conversation then turns to the Global Fragility Act (GFA) and what the US needs to do to succeed in this new initiative. Dan sums up the top priorities for U.S. development efforts over the next five years: help Ukraine, close the digital divide, mining and minerals, nearshoring, and address corruption.   Listen to the episode and pick up Dan’s book for so many more insights! ***** Dan Runde Website: https://www.csis.org/people/daniel-f-runde Twitter: https://twitter.com/danrunde LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielfrunde/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES: Project on US Leadership in Development: https://www.csis.org/programs/project-us-leadership-development Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy with Dan Runde: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:32 Dan’s background 00:10:11 What is a conservative internationalist? 00:19:37 The world needs leadership not entropy 00:23:11 What is development & the role of political engagement in donor countries 00:33:19 What is fair vs. unfair global power competition? 00:45:15 What is soft power? Development is applied foreign policy 00:52:31 US – Europe cooperation vs competition in development 01:06:24 The Global Fragility Act – how to get it right 01:10:59 Priorities for U.S. development efforts in the next five years

Christopher Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he co-leads the Development Economics Center and the Obama Foundation Scholars Program. Chris also has affiliations with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), MIT’s Poverty Action Lab, the National Bureau for Economic Research, and the Center for Global Development. He has served as a consultant and adviser to the World Bank, the United Nations, and governments in Uganda, Liberia, Colombia, and the United States. This conversation was a lot of fun and we covered a lot of ground: from Sparta to Kiev, from the Peloponnesian War to the Iraq War, from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to the prospects of war between China and Taiwan, and so much more! We start by talking about Chris’s journey, from growing up in Ottawa to finding his way to international work and then eventually to conflict. We then shift to Chris’s book, “Why We Fight”, and the concept of fragility. Chris highlights how fragility sets the stage upon which the five reasons why we fight push a society away from bargaining to using violence or as he puts it: “when killing an Archduke in some random Balkan city can send the world to war.” The five reasons for war that Chris identifies in his book are: unchecked interests, intangible incentives, uncertainty, commitment problems, and misperceptions. We discuss whether there is a potential hierarchy among then, how they are connected, which of the five reasons played a role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as how intangible incentives can be seen in the Ukrainians’ resolution to protect their country. Chris also sums up decades of research and practical insights into 10 general principles that can set the world on the path to peace. We talk about how leaders are tempted by grand visions, but in reality, change happens incrementally – too bad 3% better doesn’t make for a good slogan! Listen to the episode for so many more insights from Chris Blattman! ***** Dr. Christopher Blattman Website: https://chrisblattman.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/cblatts LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman ***** EPISODE RESOURCES: Blattman,Christopher (2022). Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. New York: Viking Press The prospects for war with China: Why I see a serious chance of World War III in the next decade https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:55 Chris’s background – people, places, ideas 02:56 How Chris approaches risk 05:08 How culture enables risk taking 07:17 A potential correlation between risk taking & creativity 10:50 What is fragility? 12:57 Dividing the pie & fragility 15:32 The role of the past in understanding fragility 18:29 When do we actually fight 22:41 The five reasons for wars 26:49 How to think about uncertainty vs. commitment problems 30:46 How intangible incentives change the nature of commitment problems 33:07 What is the interplay between uncertainty and technology 38:16 How interdependence failed to stop Russia’s attack on Ukraine 44:58 Is there a threshold of violence that we should accept in order to avoid war? 47:56 Why the West missed the Ukrainian resolve 53:12 Bad guys & good guys support propaganda 56:52 Can you change people’s misperceptions 01:01:19 Which leaders take their country to war 01:05:06 Wicked problems 01:07:44 When misperceptions are desirable 01:11:29 Chris’s 10 commandments 01:16:50 The Grandiose Vision 2050 OR the 3% better realistic goal 01:19:16 Working on the margin & anti-politics machines 01:21:46 Chris’s views on China & prospects for a war w/ Taiwan 01:24:41 Is Taiwan drawing inspiration from Ukraine 01:26:11 Forecasting vs understanding the root causes of conflict 01:29:42 What are the most interesting problems to work on in the next few decades

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” will be published in 2023. This episode is a grand tour of Seth’s core ideas about fragile and conflict-affected countries. We start by talking about Seth’s professional journey, which began out of his passion for travel and insatiable curiosity about why some societies work better than others. We then shift to the concept of fragility. Seth argues that social dynamics shape the institutions, understood both as “the rules of the game,” as well as the state apparatus. The pathways in and out of fragility or conflict depend on the interplay between formal institutions and informal social rules which govern collective action. Fragility and conflict can be prevented if social groups can come together and chart a unifying course of action that leads them towards prosperity – in other words, if they can manage political and social transitions. We then explore how these factors interact with politics, economics, and security. Seth provides a sweeping overview of situations where countries and communities made “good enough” progress to avoid collapse and even prosper, from Nigeria and Somaliland to Guatemala, India, and Indonesia. In most cases, leaders and elites were able to rally around a common storyline that enabled them achieve unity of purpose and navigate through tough transitions. We also talk about the hard cases, from Libya to Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. The conversation delves into many fascinating tangents. We discuss the work of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and how it deploys its framework in Libya and Colombia. Seth also argues that multilateral organizations like the World Bank must create the conditions for brave leaders who can move their societies forward rather than focus on purely technical policy advice or project financing. We conclude with the reasons for hope in fragile states, and with a reflection on the skills needed to be an effective operator in the most complex societies (hint – it’s about the human soul). ***** Dr. Seth D. Kaplan Website: https://sethkaplan.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28 Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13 Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025. This is the second episode in a three-part series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility. We start by talking about why conflict prevention should constantly be on the minds of political actors, civil society, the private sector, and international organizations. Alexandre paints a vivid picture of how the ebb and flow of crises in the absence of prevention can get a country trapped in a downward spiral of conflict and how countries should aim to surf above the narrow corridor between peace and conflict. We then discuss how communication about the risk of conflict can interact with expectations about the trajectory of a country and the delicate balance between raising an alarm without degenerating into alarmism; and how to learn what works in prevention by looking at countries that come close to conflict but manage to avoid it. Our conversation then moves on to dealing with “wild cards” in prevention – from extremist groups to external actors – and how we can engage in prevention when key actors have an interest in maintaining or starting a conflict. We also talk about the need to capitalize on opportune moments to help a country get on the pathway to peace and whether there are red lines that international organizations should cross in order to prevent conflict. Further, we discuss the role of the private sector in preventing conflict and the conditions in which it should play a role. Alexandre makes it clear that while the private sector is an important actor, it is no panacea and warns us not to force the private sector into situations where it can only succeed by being a bad actor. As a preview to our next episode with Alexandre on the geopolitics of fragility, we wrap up this conversation by talking about prevention in an interconnected world: how the global stage has changed since the release of the report in 2018, what should motivate citizens in Western countries to care about prevention, and the shifting roles and interests of China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre deliver a masterclass in prevention! ***** Dr. Alexandre Marc Website: https://www.alexandremarc.org Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1 International Institute for Strategic Studies: https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marc Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)