The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.More on Katie's Strategieshttps://www.fairleadstrategies.com/Topics Covered:Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phaseThe difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phasesKey S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside riskHow technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven marketsThe breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycleWhether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverseUnderstanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframesWhy mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market directionThe shift from growth to value and what it means for investorsSector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assetsHow a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timingTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next47:00 Key signals to watch going forward

In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value.Subscribe on SpotifySubscribe on AppleThe conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure.Papers and Resources Discussed:Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Futurehttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.htmlThe Impact of Intangibles on Base Rateshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdfMeasuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creationhttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdfOne Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdfCapitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economyhttps://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJA Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capitalhttps://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimatingtheredqueen.pdfExplaining the Recent Failure of Value Investinghttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539Guest Links:Michael Mauboussin TwitterTopics Covered:Why OpenAI’s projected growth would be unprecedented in market historyHow base rates provide a reality check on AI expectationsThe role of diffusion models and adoption curves in forecasting technologyWhy massive capital investment in AI may follow past boom-bust cyclesLessons from large-scale infrastructure projects and why timelines breakHow intangible assets change the distribution of business outcomesThe rise of “fat tails” and why more companies now massively win or failWho captures value in AI across the stack from chips to applicationsWhy competition may drive AI profits toward consumers, not producersHow accounting distorts intangible investment and misleads investorsTimestamps:00:00 Intro and OpenAI growth expectations vs historical base rates04:32 Why no company has ever achieved 100%+ sustained growth at scale08:47 Lessons from megaprojects and AI infrastructure buildouts13:18 Intangible assets and why outcomes now have fatter tails18:36 Why big tech is growing faster than historical precedents23:52 Where value accrues in AI and why consumers may benefit most28:21 Barriers to entry in AI including capital, talent, and scale32:47 The risk of overinvestment and historical parallels to past bubbles37:26 Game theory and competitive signaling in AI capital spending41:58 Why investment returns—not “asset light” narratives—drive value46:12 How accounting fails to capture intangible investment properly50:44 Breaking down SG&A into maintenance vs investment spending55:03 Why understanding reinvestment and ROI is the core investing skill59:18 Final thoughts on uncertainty, expectations, and base rates in AI

This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the current environment.Prometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-research.comAahan Menon Twitterhttps://x.com/@AahanPrometheusWhy the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent historyHow oil prices and geopolitical conflict are reshaping macro expectationsThe growing risk of a stagflationary environment and what it means for portfoliosWhy traditional 60/40 portfolios may struggle in sustained inflation regimesHow expected returns differ across equities, bonds, commodities, and FXWhy commodities and energy markets offer the most attractive opportunities todayThe role of backwardation and supply shocks in driving commodity returnsWhy consensus earnings expectations may be too optimistic relative to macro realityHow inflation flows through the economy from energy to consumer demandThe Fed’s dilemma between inflation control and economic slowdownA simple rule for when to own treasuries based on inflation trendsWhy correlations across asset classes are breaking down in crisis environmentsHow systematic investors manage risk when markets are driven by news and geopoliticsThe case for trend following as a core portfolio strategyHow Aahan’s free trend system works across stocks, bonds, gold, and BitcoinThe behavioral advantages of systematic investing during volatile marketsRisks of trend following including whipsaws and false signalsHow portfolio construction is evolving to include crisis protection and energy overlays00:00 Inflation shock and why equities and bonds may struggle01:03 Setting up the macro backdrop before the oil shock03:12 Labor market slowdown vs strong GDP divergence04:45 Consumer spending driven by de-saving05:35 Oil-driven inflation shock as a recession catalyst07:32 Preparing for stagflation vs disinflationary growth09:18 Why commodities outperform in inflation regimes10:45 Expected returns framework across asset classes12:05 Why commodities and FX offer the best opportunities14:05 How commodity carry and backwardation work16:42 Trend following and commodities as pro-cyclical exposures17:43 Ranking expected returns: energy, FX, bonds, equities18:51 Challenges of systematic investing in news-driven markets20:15 Extreme correlations and oil dominating asset pricing23:47 Earnings expectations vs macro reality gap28:30 Why the Fed faces an impossible policy tradeoff30:00 Real-time CPI estimates and inflation pressure32:00 A rule for when to own treasuries based on CPI37:30 Stock-bond correlation regime shifts39:34 How the trend following system works45:10 Benefits and limitations of trend strategies

This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The conversation dives into why he believes U.S. equities are structurally challenged, where he sees better opportunities globally, and how macro, politics, and capital flows drive major investing inflections.Inflection investing and identifying asymmetric opportunitiesHow macro and politics create winners and losers in marketsThe Argentina case study and why the stock exchange may outperform the countryHow to structure trades with limited downside and multi-bagger upsideTime horizon advantages versus short-term Wall Street thinkingPortfolio construction, capital allocation, and when to sell positionsManaging risk, leverage, and liquidity during crises and warsBuilding a “shopping list” during market dislocationsCountry ETFs vs individual securities in global investingWhy Kuppy prefers international markets over the U.S.The structural imbalances in the U.S. economy and stock marketWhy AI may lead to profitless growth and economic disruptionThe impact of AI on jobs, margins, and economic demandHow inflation distorts economic data and investor perceptionFinding opportunities in “left for dead” markets like BrazilThe role of elections and policy shifts in market inflectionsHow to think probabilistically about investmentsAvoiding unforced errors and emotional decision-makingThe importance of long-term thinking in volatile marketsPsychology and discipline in global macro investingHarris Kupperman Twitterhttps://twitter.com/HedgeyeKuppyPraetorian Capital Websitehttps://praetorian-capital.comTimestamps00:00 Why the U.S. stock market is structurally overvalued01:14 What “inflection investing” means02:54 Top-down vs bottom-up investing framework04:31 Using politics to identify winning trades05:00 Argentina trade setup and execution06:20 Why the Argentine stock exchange is the best play08:00 Earnings inflection and multiple expansion potential10:37 Time horizon and holding period strategy13:00 When to exit positions and recycle capital18:41 How and when to raise cash19:41 De-grossing the portfolio during crises23:14 Real-time decision making during war scenarios27:00 Building a shopping list during dislocations29:32 ETF vs individual stock decision process33:22 Why the U.S. is less attractive than global markets38:17 The problem with AI-driven “growth”43:31 Monitoring vs acting across global opportunities48:14 The psychology of long-term investing and edge

This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment where nothing is clearly priced in.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Jack and Matt bring together Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze the ripple effects of higher oil prices, the “common knowledge” shift in markets, the role of options flows in driving short-term moves, and why traditional economic indicators like unemployment may be telling a misleading story.Andy Constan Twitterhttps://x.com/dampedspringBen Hunt Twitterhttps://x.com/EpsilonTheoryBrent Kochuba Twitterhttps://x.com/spotgammaEric Pachman Twitterhttps://x.com/epachmanTopics covered:How oil supply shocks impact GDP, inflation, and consumer spendingWhy higher oil prices act as a tax on the economy and shift growth dynamicsThe difference between supply shocks and demand shocks in energy marketsWhy central banks may be unable to respond to an oil-driven slowdownThe “common knowledge” framework and how narratives reshape marketsWhy the Strait of Hormuz has become the key global economic bottleneckOil exporters vs importers and how that divide is driving asset performanceWhy energy equities may outperform in a prolonged geopolitical conflictHow volatility is being driven by oil prices and geopolitical riskThe relationship between VIX and oil during crisis periodsWhy $100 oil could trigger a major volatility spike and equity selloffThe JP Morgan collar trade and how options positioning can pin marketsHow dealer hedging flows influence short-term price actionWhy markets may appear disconnected from negative newsThe limits of predicting what is “priced in” during uncertain environmentsWhy diversification matters more when macro visibility is lowHow unemployment data can mislead by excluding people leaving the workforceThe difference between unemployment rate and labor force participationStructural decline in rural economies and the migration to urban centersHow labor force trends explain the divergence in economic experiences across the USTimestamps:00:00 Oil shock as a GDP tax on consumers00:16 Strait of Hormuz as global economic chokepoint00:29 Why $100 oil could send VIX to 5000:39 Why unemployment rate may be misleading01:07 What Last Call is and how the episode is structured02:28 Macro, narrative, and flows framework for markets03:44 How oil supply shocks impact growth and inflation06:00 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending07:00 Oil’s impact on inflation and central bank policy09:39 Scenario analysis for oil prices and market outcomes12:28 Is the oil shock priced into markets?16:00 Why oil vs assets may be mispriced20:00 Ben Hunt on the “common knowledge” market shift25:00 Why the Strait of Hormuz changes everything29:00 Portfolio implications: long energy vs global equities33:00 Brent Kochuba on oil, VIX, and market volatility linkage36:00 Why $100 oil is the key risk threshold for equities40:00 JP Morgan collar trade and market pinning dynamics44:00 Why options flows can override macro narratives short term52:00 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality59:00 Structural decline in labor force across US counties

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors.We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work beneath the surface, and why the media narrative around private credit may be overstating systemic risks. We also explore how investors should think about diversification, illiquidity premiums, and the potential impact of AI on credit markets and software lending.Larry Swedroe Twitterhttps://twitter.com/larryswedroeLarry Swedroe Substackhttps://larryswedroe.substack.comTopics coveredWhat private credit is and how it evolved after the 2008 financial crisisWhy private credit is not a single asset class and how risk varies across structuresThe three key risks in private credit: credit risk, liquidity risk, and concentration riskHow illiquidity premiums work and why they can be a major source of returnDifferences between private credit funds, BDCs, and open architecture platformsWhy diversification is critical and how concentration risk can be hiddenHow rising interest rates are impacting defaults and underwriting standardsMedia misconceptions around defaults, losses, and valuation marks in private creditThe real systemic risk of private credit vs the banking systemHow liquidity actually works in interval funds and stress scenariosWhat happens in a recession and how private credit compares to equities and high yield bondsThe role of software lending and how AI disruption could impact credit portfoliosHow to evaluate private credit managers including scale, underwriting, and leverageThe importance of credit culture and avoiding “reach for yield” behaviorWhether private credit should be accessible to retail investors and the risks involvedThe concept of earning “beta” in private credit vs trying to pick winning managersAI’s growing role in investment research and the risks of overfitting and false signalsTimestamps00:00 Why private credit is less risky than banks for systemic stability01:12 Introduction and episode overview03:00 What private credit is and how it grew after 200805:21 Who provides capital to private credit funds07:11 Why private credit is not a monolithic asset class08:00 The three key risks in private credit09:00 Illiquidity premium and why it can be a “near free lunch”12:00 Credit risk and importance of senior secured lending16:00 Concentration risk and why diversification matters18:11 Are defaults rising and what the data actually shows21:00 Media narratives vs actual credit losses23:50 Could private credit cause a financial crisis25:50 How to analyze portfolios and why most investors can’t28:44 Should investors think about indexing private credit30:12 Can private credit work for retail investors32:26 Mass redemption risk and liquidity stress scenarios36:00 Sources of liquidity inside private credit funds41:37 Software lending and AI disruption risk47:00 Private equity valuations and spillover into credit risk49:43 Key checklist for evaluating private credit investments56:30 How AI is changing financial research and investing

This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system.The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile macro environment.Bob also breaks down how to think about global macro investing today, including why traditional portfolios may be poorly positioned for a wider range of outcomes, how macro managers are adapting to shifting conditions, and how AI-driven productivity gains could impact economic growth, labor, and markets.Bob Elliott on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedUnlimited Funds websitehttps://www.unlimitedfunds.comTopics coveredThe shift from an income-driven economy to a savings-driven economy and why it creates fragilityWhy an oil shock acts as both an inflation driver and a tax on real consumer spendingHow higher gas prices mechanically reduce discretionary spending and economic growthWhy markets may be underpricing the economic impact of the current oil shockThe link between oil prices, inflation expectations, and real demand destructionHow global markets respond to shocks through deleveraging and volatility spikesWhy gold and other winning trades can fall during risk-off environmentsThe sequencing of inflation first and growth slowdown later in shock-driven cyclesHow central banks are likely to respond to a stagflationary shockLessons from 2022 and 2008 for understanding today’s macro environmentWhy stocks and bonds may both be mispriced in the current regimeThe difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AIWhy AI-driven job losses and economic growth cannot coexist without major dissavingThe most likely path for AI as a productivity enhancer rather than a job destroyerHow to think about measuring productivity in a technology-driven economyThe role of second- and third-order effects in macro investingHow global macro strategies identify mispricings across asset classesThe concept of using the “wisdom of the crowd” from hedge fund positioningWhy macro strategies can perform in both rising and falling marketsHow macro fits into a portfolio as a diversifier versus long-only assetsWhy the future investment environment may require broader strategy diversificationTimestamps00:00 Oil shock meets a savings-driven economy01:00 Framing the macro environment: oil, inflation, and growth02:12 What a savings-driven economy means for market fragility04:46 Why household income vs spending divergence matters07:00 First principles of an oil shock and demand inelasticity08:00 How oil price spikes flow through to inflation13:00 Global market reactions and emerging market dynamics14:00 Deleveraging and volatility driving asset price reversals15:44 Why gold declines during macro stress events17:17 Institutional positioning and ETF flows in gold17:34 Inflation first, growth slowdown later: sequencing the impact19:24 Is the economic damage already done22:00 How macro investors operate in low-conviction environments29:19 What the Fed should do versus what it will do31:00 Comparing today’s environment to 2022 inflation dynamics33:00 Why markets are pricing in almost nothing34:00 AI and the link between labor, income, and spending37:11 Productivity vs consumer surplus in AI adoption40:00 Why better tools don’t necessarily mean higher productivitys46:00 How global macro strategies are constructed48:00 Using hedge fund positioning as a signal56:00 Why the opportunity set for macro may be expanding

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleIn this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.This episode brings together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer to explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. The conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.Topics covered• Why markets are driven by extreme outcomes and power laws, not averages• The Best & Bessembinder research showing a handful of stocks create most wealth• Base rates vs outliers and when to trust historical probabilities• Why the 100 bagger framework focuses on studying winners, not predicting them• Portfolio construction as a way to capture asymmetric upside• Buffett’s approach to consistency, durability, and long-term operating history• Inside view vs outside view and how narratives distort investing decisions• Why AI may be breaking traditional base rate assumptions in software and tech• The limits of mean reversion and why it can lead investors astray• Return on invested capital and how competition erodes excess returns over time• Identifying durable moats and why most advantages eventually get attacked• Winner-take-all dynamics and how they shape long-term investing outcomes• The twin engines of returns: earnings growth and multiple expansion• Return on incremental capital as a key driver of long-term compounding• Intangible assets and why accounting understates true business value• Amazon as a case study in misunderstood profitability and reinvestment• AI CapEx cycle and why current spending may not be sustainable long term• Why great businesses matter more than great management in long-term investingTimestamps00:00 Why extreme outcomes drive stock market returns01:00 Base rates vs studying 100 baggers03:00 Power laws and why markets are a game of outliers05:00 Just 46 companies created half of all market wealth07:00 Buffett on consistency and long-term operating history10:00 How to think about base rates in AI, energy, and macro cycles12:00 Does AI invalidate historical base rates?15:00 Inside view vs outside view in investment decision making19:00 Buffett’s “certainty at a discount” framework23:00 How often investors should evaluate businesses vs prices29:00 Mean reversion myths and where it breaks down33:00 Return on invested capital and competitive pressure36:00 Moats, winner-take-all markets, and long-term dominance41:00 Twin engines of compounding: growth plus multiple expansion43:00 Return on incremental capital and forecasting future returns47:00 Intangibles and why accounting distorts real business value50:00 Amazon, CapEx cycles, and hidden profitability53:00 AI infrastructure buildout and the future of returns

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsThis episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead.Brent Kochuba on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/SpotGammaSpotGamma Websitehttps://spotgamma.comTopics covered in this episode• Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisionsTimestamps00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 4017:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026.Jared Dillian Twitterhttps://twitter.com/DailyDirtNapDaily Dirt Naphttps://www.dailydirtnap.comTopics CoveredWhy markets fail to price low-frequency, high-impact events like war and geopolitical shocksThe concept of regime change and why investors struggle to adapt to new market environmentsThe breakdown of the 60/40 portfolio and stock-bond correlation in an inflationary regimeCommodities bull market dynamics and why energy, agriculture, and hard assets may outperformThe role of options and “long gamma” positioning in uncertain macro environmentsBitcoin as a liquidity trade vs. store of value and how sentiment drives crypto cyclesFed policy, oil prices, and why central banks follow the “path of least embarrassment”Inflation psychology, consumer behavior, and risks of 1970s-style market conditionsPolitical bias in investing and how ideology shapes portfolio decisionsRisks in private equity and private credit, including valuation marks and liquidity issuesThe Awesome Portfolio framework and why diversification across asset classes reduces drawdownsAI, productivity shifts, and how technological change impacts markets and labor trendsTimestamps00:00 Why markets misprice geopolitical risk and regime change02:00 Ukraine, Iran, and delayed market reactions to obvious risks05:00 Overreaction cycles and the Peloton example06:00 What it means to be long gamma in investing09:00 Oil volatility and asymmetric risk opportunities10:00 Regime change explained through stock-bond correlation breakdown12:00 Non-stationarity and why investing rules constantly change14:00 Why most investors fail to adapt to new regimes17:00 Position sizing, risk management, and staying “small”19:00 Commodities bull market and broad participation across assets20:30 Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge and sentiment-driven asset22:00 Fed policy, inflation, and the path of least embarrassment25:00 Oil-driven inflation vs demand destruction dynamics27:00 Inflation psychology and real-time indicators29:00 Are we entering a 1970s-style macro regime31:00 How political views shape investment strategies35:00 Learning from past mistakes and adapting to new trends37:00 Private equity and private credit valuation risks40:00 Liquidity cycles and refinancing risk in credit markets43:00 The Awesome Portfolio explained46:00 Behavior, drawdowns, and why diversification works49:00 Real estate allocation and portfolio construction51:00 Labor trends, productivity, and changing work dynamics54:00 AI productivity boom vs social media drag57:00 The dangers of consensus thinking and unpopular views