Last Call | Breaking Down the Post Election Decline

Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explain how they decide whether a falling stock price has exposed a mistake or given them a chance to buy a business they already know well.Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleOn 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski ask both investors to put that judgment to work during a Nasdaq selloff. Robert starts with an unlikely pair: Nvidia and Walmart. What assumptions about growth and returns on capital would justify paying a higher earnings multiple for the retailer? Chris starts with free cash flow per share. He explains what he wants to know about a business before its stock drops 30% and he has to decide whether to buy more, hold on or sell.They give their winners the same scrutiny. Chris admits that a run of strong quarters can tempt him to spend all his research time on the companies that are struggling. Robert borrows a habit from Sherlock Holmes: look for the evidence that could overturn your favorite explanation. The conversation closes with a question for AI executives trying to win over a town that would host a data center. What does the community get in return for the power and water the facility will use?Topics covered:- Robert Hagstrom on why volatility rises when different investors start making the same trade- What the valuations of Nvidia and Walmart imply about their future earnings- Chris Mayer on free cash flow per share and Ben Graham’s voting machine and weighing machine- What readers of The Warren Buffett Way and 100 Baggers sometimes miss about their authors- How Robert Hagstrom uses detective work to test an investment thesis- Why Chris Mayer revisits companies that keep delivering strong results- What a concentrated portfolio asks of an investor and where indexing fits- How a watchlist helps both investors put a sharp price decline in context- When share buybacks make sense and what AI companies need to explain to local residentsRobert Hagstrom’s research at EquityCompasshttps://www.equitycompass.com/author/robertChris Mayer’s books at Woodlock House Family Capitalhttps://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/portfolioChris Mayer on Xhttps://x.com/chriswmayerChapters:00:00 What a Nasdaq selloff tells long-term investors12:23 Ben Graham’s weighing machine and free cash flow per share17:58 Who sets the example for patient investors today?22:07 What readers miss about Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer26:07 Sherlock Holmes and the evidence against an investment thesis32:52 Studying winners as skeptically as mistakes39:05 The case for picking businesses in an indexed market44:36 Building a shopping list before prices fall49:12 When a falling price earns a closer look53:37 What shareholders need to hear from CEOs1:02:07 Why data centers are a hard sell for their neighborsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Mike Hunstad, president of Northern Trust Asset Management, estimates that AI accounts for more than half the risk in the S&P 500. For an investor who sees real promise in AI, that poses a practical question. How much of the portfolio should depend on being right about it?Hunstad joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain where he expects the payoff from AI to show up first. A company that uses AI to do the same work at a lower cost could see its margins rise well before the gains show up in GDP. He also explains how the stock market can move the economy in the other direction. If wealthy households have been spending some of their stock gains, a 20% equity decline could change what they buy.The conversation turns to what investors actually own. Hunstad uses the changing makeup of the Russell 1000 Value Index to show how a value fund can carry more technology exposure than its name suggests. He also shares the question he would ask an active manager after hearing their best stock picks. Which stocks did you underweight to pay for those bets, and do you have just as much conviction in those decisions?Topics covered:- What Treasury yields tell Mike Hunstad about inflation and the Fed’s choices- Why profit margins are his first test of whether AI spending is paying off- How the spending habits of wealthy households can turn a stock market decline into an economic slowdown- Where quality, value and low-volatility stocks fit in a portfolio with a large AI exposure- How much stock actually becomes available to investors when a large private company goes public- Why price-to-book can miss value in businesses built on intangible assets- How tracking a company’s suppliers, customers and peers changes the way investors measure momentum- When a factor looks cheap and why timing a shift into it is difficult- How the stocks a manager leaves out can overwhelm the gains from the ones they pickChapters:00:00 What stock prices and economic headlines are saying06:45 The Fed, interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yield11:11 AI productivity and the case for a positive supply shock18:31 How a stock market decline could reach consumer spending22:51 AI capital spending and the lessons of the dot-com era28:54 Who captures the gains from AI, and how to measure them34:18 Mega-IPOs and how much stock comes to market38:36 What private markets add to a public equity portfolio44:11 Measuring value and momentum through investor behavior49:10 Can investors time their factor exposures?57:16 The portfolio risk in stocks you leave outLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners explains how AI demand can keep growing while the companies building data centers struggle to earn a return. CoreWeave has committed to years of lease payments. What happens if the price it can charge customers for computing power falls before those leases run out?The author of The Boock Report joins Matt Zeigler to trace who bears that risk. A lender, a chipmaker and an electrician building a data center all depend on the same project, but a slowdown reaches each of them differently. Boockvar draws on the history of the memory chip business to explain why a stock can look cheapest just as its earnings are peaking.They also look at the economy beyond AI. Boockvar compares what concert venues and hotel operators are hearing from customers, explains why reopening the Strait of Hormuz would still leave oil inventories to rebuild, and shares where he sees value in overseas stocks, healthcare and consumer staples.Topics covered:- How much hiring a data center supports during construction and after it opens- Why new memory chip supply matters to Micron shareholders even if demand keeps rising- How CoreWeave’s lease commitments and borrowing costs compare with IREN’s approach- Who could keep an existing data center running in a restructuring, and who loses orders if the next one never gets built- Why Peter Boockvar sees the Fed making smaller policy adjustments and watches the cost of financing AI projects- What sold-out concerts, travel bookings and hiring by industry reveal about the consumer- How depleted oil inventories could sustain demand for crude after shipping resumes- Where Peter Boockvar finds overlooked businesses outside the U.S. and in healthcare and consumer staples- What gold prices mean for miners’ margins and why refinancing matters for private creditChapters:00:00 How much of the economy depends on the AI buildout?06:25 The workers who build data centers and the jobs that last11:14 Micron and the trap of buying peak earnings18:23 Who bears the losses if an AI infrastructure company defaults?23:19 How AI financing costs enter the Fed’s rate debate29:05 What concerts, hotels and hiring tell us about the consumer37:03 Oil supply and the long job of rebuilding inventories44:44 Looking overseas for overlooked stocks49:42 The case for consumer staples and healthcare56:52 Rush at Madison Square Garden and Peter Boockvar’s first concertLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Brent Kochuba, Ben Hunt, Aahan Menon and Eric Pachman join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand on November’s Last Call to make sense of the post-election selloff and the pressures facing businesses and households.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Brent Kochuba explains why the weakest AI cloud stocks caught his eye even while the Nasdaq was rallying. Ben Hunt argues the midterms changed what investors could take for granted about presidential power, with governors gaining a bigger say in where data centers get built.Aahan Menon traces how a decline in AI shares could reach the dinner table as households that grew wealthier on paper rethink their spending. Eric Pachman follows a different cost all the way to the grocery aisle. When diesel gets more expensive, a grocer has to decide how much of the freight bill to absorb and how much to pass on to shoppers.Topics covered:- Why Brent Kochuba watched the weakest AI cloud stocks for confirmation of the rally- How negative dealer gamma can amplify selling and why November options expiration matters- What Ben Hunt means by an election making the limits of presidential power “common knowledge”- Why governors, electricity bills and local jobs matter to the next data center permit- Why Aahan Menon sees little immediate change in federal spending after the midterms- How stock gains support consumer spending and data center investment feeds corporate profits- How Eric Pachman uses the Producer Price Index to see how many industries face unusual cost increases- Who borrowed oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and what it will take to return those barrelsGuest research and links:Brent Kochuba | SpotGammahttps://spotgamma.com/SpotGamma on Xhttps://x.com/spotgammaBen Hunt | Perscienthttps://www.perscient.com/Epsilon Theory on Xhttps://x.com/EpsilonTheoryAahan Menon | Prometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-macro.com/Aahan Menon on Xhttps://x.com/AahanPrometheusEric Pachman | Data 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/How the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Works in 2026https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/spr-exchangeChapters:00:00 A post-election rally gives way to a Nasdaq selloff05:06 Brent Kochuba on unwinding election hedges12:05 The AI cloud stocks that missed the bounce16:38 Negative gamma and what could break the selling cycle26:28 Ben Hunt on what the election made common knowledge37:31 Aahan Menon on fiscal policy and the AI wealth effect43:03 What a slowdown in data center spending would mean for profits48:35 Eric Pachman on price pressure across industries57:31 Tanker traffic, freight costs and emergency oil loans1:05:10 Who gets a say when a data center comes to town?1:10:48 Political compromise and a Philadelphia sports storyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own.The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum.Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification.Topics covered:- Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices- Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs- Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand- Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows- How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior- Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization- Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts- Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying- Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies- What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flowsChapters:00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike GreenTier1 Alpha Asset Managementhttps://www.t1acapital.com/Mike Green on Xhttps://x.com/profplum99Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising.Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash.The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.Topics covered:- What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction- Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations- Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth- How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending- Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics- Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy- Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule- Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector- How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits- Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisisChapters:00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagreeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing.With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold.Topics covered:- How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding- Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money- The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence- Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate- How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle- The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity- How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets- The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows- Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures- China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and BitcoinChapters:00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and goldLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds.Topics covered:- Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top- What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth- How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights- The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending?- Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short- What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers- Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout- How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation- What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdownChapters:00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth?10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 50014:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winnersResearch discussed:Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going?https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-goingAstoria Investment Managementhttps://www.astoriaim.com/Astoria on Xhttps://x.com/AstoriaAdvisorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset.In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute.Topics covered:- Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect?- The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy- Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance- Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings- Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability- How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index- Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies- Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months- Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon- Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendationsChapters:00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course?11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk22:30 Can chip margins stay this high?26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panelLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments.In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process.Topics covered:- How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples- Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations- CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction- What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk- Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations- His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy- Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE- Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield- How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding- Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered callsInfrastructure Capital Advisors:https://www.infracapfunds.com/Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X:https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAPInfraCap's CPI-R analysis:https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-rChapters:00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target?47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compoundingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.