Broken Models. Misleading Yields | Ryan Krueger on Avoiding the Dividend Trap

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.🔍 Topics Covered:The uncomfortable realities of trend following performanceWhy many investors misunderstand managed futuresEric’s view on the current drawdown and client behaviorSetting expectations with empirical data and simulationsThe case for blending passive equities with trend followingCapital formation vs. risk transfer markets explainedWhat market participants get wrong about futuresThe surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexesThe flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiersHow regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend modelsPhilosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals.Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere.We discuss:Why dividend growth beats high yield over timeThe flaws in the 4% withdrawal ruleHow yield-on-cost changes investor behaviorRed flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFsHow “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planningRyan’s quant + discretionary investment processThe underrated power of sell disciplineWhy “never add to losers” might boost your returns📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America.Topics discussed include:The shift to a buyer’s market and why it mattersThe gap between seller expectations and buyer realityRegional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyondWhy insurance costs and HOAs are distorting marketsBuyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamicsTariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatilityThe policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fastClimate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experimentWhy your home shouldn't be your investment strategyLessons from game theory and behavioral economicsGuest Links:Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success.In this episode, we discuss:How Hagstrom fell into money management by accidentWhat Buffett’s 1983 letter taught him about investingThe dangers of rigid value investing frameworksWhy most active managers fail over timeThe key to compounding that investors overlookDrawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investingWhy private equity’s appeal is mostly an illusionWhat Buffett’s surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are MissingIn this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.Topics Discussed Include:Why consumer strength may be a mirageThe risk of complacency around inflationTariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertaintyThe growing consequences of U.S. and global debtWhy small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better valueFixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environmentThe case for active management over passive in today’s marketOpportunities and risks in alternatives and private assetsLessons investors can learn from recent volatilityIf you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio construction, and what investors can learn from GMO’s global perspective on valuations.Topics Covered:Why GMO didn’t abandon value—it improved itThe difference between "value" and "valuation"How restating financial statements improves valuation accuracyGMO’s two-step top-down and bottom-up ETF strategyThe deep value opportunity: why it’s never been cheaperHow GMO incorporates quality in a forward-looking wayWhy momentum and macro are excluded from some strategiesHow ESG is treated as a portfolio risk—not virtue signalingThe China supply chain shift and the Beyond China strategyPassive investing’s long-term impact on price discoveryManaging risk, constraints, and position sizing in quant portfoliosWhether today’s market mirrors the dot-com bubbleWhat’s driving valuation gaps across global markets

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.📌 Topics Covered:Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalismHow investors must rethink confidence, control, and certaintyThe "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countriesImplications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing worldFragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical riskHow social media and sentiment shape investor perceptionWhere investors are most misaligned with current realitiesConfidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market.We cover:Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantageHow he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecastsWhy long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantageThe impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio marginsHis quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companiesWhat investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investingThe CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptionalWhy he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.🔍 Topics Covered:Why European pension funds are rethinking U.S. equity exposureThe “Chart of Truth” and its implications for global allocationsThe unexpected strength of retail investors in recent ralliesMag 7 dominance, Nvidia’s market impact, and AI euphoriaWhy Apple might be the ultimate funding shortA deep dive into the “Bushy” portfolio and why 60/40 is brokenHow inflation volatility shapes asset choices and international diversificationThe case for owning Goodyear and Korean utilitiesThe problem with adjusted EBITDA and financial storytellingHow being a generalist can be a competitive investing edge

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio DesignIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine quality definitions, Joe reveals a cutting-edge playbook for the future of quantitative investing.📌 In This Episode, You'll Learn:Why Causeway doesn't treat its quant model as sacrosanctHow to blend fundamental overlays with systematic strategiesThe logic behind composite factors and contextual weightingUnconventional factor signals like corporate events and peer-based momentumHow machine learning enhances quality assessmentHow Causeway adapts factor models across regimes and marketsWhat most quants miss when it comes to factor construction and interpretationThe evolving role of AI and NLP in alpha generationJoe's views on passive flows and fundamental mispricings