The Canada-US Trade War: A Bridge Too Far? w/ Jesse Huebsch

The Canada-US trade war is escalating, threatening to unravel decades of economic integration between two of the world's closest allies. Chris Keefer is joined by returning guest Jesse Hoops to examine how we got here, what Washington hopes to achieve, and how Canada can respond to an increasingly unpredictable neighbour. From tariffs on aluminum and autos to the potential collapse of Canadian manufacturing, they explore the consequences of economic warfare between countries whose industries and supply chains have become deeply intertwined. Can Canada defend its economic sovereignty without inflicting even greater damage on itself, and what might ultimately force an end to the conflict?The conversation explores Canada's critical vulnerabilities, including the Gordie Howe Bridge, Line 5, American-controlled financial infrastructure and the F-35 fighter program. Chris and Jesse examine whether Canada needs to sacrifice some economic efficiency to secure greater strategic autonomy, including through new pipelines, domestic industrial capacity and a more independent nuclear supply chain. With billions of dollars in new nuclear construction on the horizon, what does the trade war mean for Canada's choice between CANDU and the American-designed AP1000? And if the current rupture in Canada-US relations becomes a recurring feature of American politics, how much should Canada be prepared to spend to ensure it cannot be held hostage by its largest trading partner?Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Canada is once again attempting to build nuclear megaprojects after a long pause, making the experience of people who have actually delivered recent large industrial projects increasingly valuable. Ian McGregor is a veteran Alberta engineer, entrepreneur and industrial project developer who helped conceive and build the $12 billion Northwest Sturgeon Refinery and the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line.In this episode we use that project to explore the realities of megaproject delivery: incomplete engineering, supply-chain delays, labour bottlenecks, cost escalation and the challenge of coordinating thousands of critical components across a vast industrial site.We also dive into the refinery’s near-disastrous gasifier burner failure, where a mission-critical component designed to last thousands of hours failed after just 40, forcing McGregor and a small team of engineers and tradespeople to redesign it themselves. From there the conversation broadens into the economics of nation-building infrastructure, why governments often have to play a role in projects with century-long paybacks, and what Canada’s nuclear revival can learn from one of the country’s most ambitious recent industrial megaprojects.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Fusion has spent nearly a century as the energy source of the future. In this episode, I’m joined by fusion scientist Gerrit Bruhaug to ask what has actually been achieved, what remains unsolved, and why progress has taken so much longer than the early pioneers expected. We start from first principles, how fusion differs from fission, why the Lawson criterion matters, and how magnetic and inertial confinement take radically different routes to the same goal. Gerrit provides an in-depth analysis of the National Ignition Facility’s breakthrough and why ignition is better understood as fusion’s Chicago Pile moment, rather than the near-term arrival of a commercial power plant.From there we get into the engineering realities behind the headlines: laser efficiency, plasma instabilities, neutron damage, divertor heat loads, tritium breeding and inventory, target manufacturing, parasitic loads, engineering breakeven and the enormous gap between making fusion happen and making cheap electricity.Gerrit also takes us through fusion’s surprisingly long history, from the optimism of the first private laser-fusion startup, KMS Fusion, to today’s new wave of heavily capitalized companies, and explains why the two constraints he watches most closely are tritium inventory and engineering gain.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Iran’s nuclear program is now more than seven decades old, stretching from the Shah’s ambitious Atoms for Peace-era plans to the Islamic Republic’s pursuit of enrichment, missile capability and nuclear latency. Iran historian Farzan Sabet joins Decouple to explain how energy development, techno-nationalism, the trauma of the Iran–Iraq War and a persistent sense of strategic isolation transformed a civilian nuclear project into an increasingly important national-security instrument.We trace the program through the Shah’s plans for 23,000MW of commercial nuclear power, the revolution, the AQ Khan network, the AMAD weapons effort, the JCPOA and the collapse of Iran’s traditional deterrence architecture. Farzan also examines the extraordinary price Iran has paid: sanctions-related economic damage measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars and, by one estimate, comparable to the economic cost of the Iran–Iraq War, yet with neither substantial nuclear power generation nor a nuclear deterrent to show for it.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

For almost the whole of human history, wood was the main act. It was the fuel that cooked food and smelted iron, the material that framed every house and hull, and the first bulk commodity ever moved at scale over long distances. In this episode Chris Keefer talks with energy analyst Mark Nelson about a material we almost entirely take for granted, starting with a fact hiding in plain sight: the grasping hands, binocular vision, and colour sight that define us were all built by an ancestry lived in the trees. From there the conversation turns to why wood, of all the products of photosynthesis, became civilization's battery, storing a century of sunlight in a form that can be felled and hauled away.That storage came with a hard ceiling, because the energy available to any pre-industrial society was set by its land area multiplied by how fast the sun could regrow a forest. Chris and Mark trace that single constraint through the iron furnaces that each needed a forest standing behind them to the oak fleets that turned a Baltic chokepoint into the 19th century equivalent of the Straits of Hormuz. Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Former U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz joins Decouple to examine the history of Iran’s nuclear program and the negotiations that produced the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. As the agreement’s lead American technical negotiator, Moniz offers a rare inside account of his intensive discussions with Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, explaining how personal trust helped make an extraordinarily difficult negotiation possible. He details the JCPOA’s restrictions on uranium enrichment and argues that its unprecedented inspection, verification and transparency provisions were even more important than its limits on nuclear technology.The conversation also explores the origins of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, including the formative impact of the Iran–Iraq War, the country’s former structured weapons program and its subsequent accumulation of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Moniz assesses the consequences of the United States’ 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, the limits of military action, the weakening of Iran’s civilian leadership and the increasingly difficult prospects for renewed negotiations. Despite these obstacles, he argues that diplomacy remains the only durable path to resolving Iran’s nuclear program, and potentially the wider challenges posed by its missiles, drones and regional proxies.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Why are nuclear power plants so difficult to finance, and who ultimately pays when megaprojects run late or over budget? Chris Keefer is joined by returning guest Michael Seely, The Atomic Blender, for a deep dive into the capital costs, construction risks and financing structures that determine whether nuclear projects move forward or collapse. They examine the troubled European EPR experience at Olkiluoto, Flamanville and Hinkley Point C, where delays and cost overruns repeatedly pushed risk back onto reactor vendors and national governments.The conversation then turns to Sizewell C’s regulated asset-base model, which allows investors to earn returns during construction while shifting more risk onto ratepayers and the British state. Chris and Michael also explore Vogtle, VC Summer, NuScale and UAMPS, asking whether private capital can realistically finance new nuclear construction, why government guarantees remain essential, and whether nuclear power should ultimately be treated less like a merchant investment and more like long-lived public infrastructure.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

In this reactor deep dive, Chris Keefer is joined by Navid Badie, Chief Nuclear Engineer at Candu Energy Inc, to explain the inner workings of the distinctive CANDU reactor. They trace how Canada’s decision to use natural uranium led to heavy-water moderation, horizontal pressure tubes, separate coolant and moderator systems, and the ability to refuel continuously while operating. Navid breaks down the reactor’s fuel channels, steam generators, online fueling machines, and the remarkable operating experience behind a technology that has completed nearly a million online refuelling operations.The conversation also examines CANDU safety and longevity: large inventories of water, natural thermosiphon cooling during a station blackout, and the engineering behind reactor refurbishment. Chris and Navid discuss pressure-tube metallurgy, robotic inspection and maintenance, cobalt-60 and other isotope production, and why locally manufacturable natural-uranium fuel can offer importing countries greater fuel-cycle sovereignty. A technically grounded introduction to one of the world’s most unusual and capable reactor lineages.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

James Krellenstein returns to take apart one of the most persistent myths in energy discourse: the idea that there was a golden age when nuclear power was cheaper than coal. The plants people point to, Oyster Creek, Dresden, Point Beach, Quad Cities, were cheap to the utilities that bought them, but they were not cheap to build. General Electric and Westinghouse sold them as fixed-price turnkey projects at a deliberate loss, eating roughly 1 billion in 1960s dollars, more than 10 billion adjusted for inflation, across about a dozen plants. This loss leader strategy paid off. Between 1962 and 1976 the US nuclear fleet doubled its capacity roughly every 2 years, a stretch of sustained growth that rivals anything in American industrial history and still constitutes the largest nuclear fleet on earth in 2026.The conversation traces how turnkey era prices distorted every nuclear cost comparison that followed, why the utilities themselves pushed to abandon turnkey contracts, and how regulatory change, slowing load growth, and across-the-board cost inflation turned the boom into a wave of cancellations. Krellenstein closes on the fundamental question for the present moment: if we want to set off another ordering cycle, someone has to absorb first-of-a-kind risk with a balance sheet large enough to guarantee a firm fixed price, and it is not obvious who that is. Back then GE and Westinghouse could swallow the losses because they were two of the largest industrial conglomerates on earth and commercial reactors were a single-digit percentage of their business. No comparable actor today has shown any willingness to take that risk on, which explains both how the world's largest nuclear fleet got built and why nobody has been willing to repeat the trick since.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

AI hype has bled deep into the nuclear sector, and in this episode, Chris Keefer sits down with returning guest David Helmer, an engineer and AI advisory consultant with a decade advising the US government on machine learning and autonomous systems, to examine what the technology can actually do, who benefits from inflating those claims, and what a correction would mean for nuclear's investment story.The conversation covers the ELIZA effect and why human brains are hardwired to anthropomorphize language models; the structural gap between frontier lab costs and revenues; why hallucination and reliability problems are embedded in LLM architecture rather than solvable through scaling; and why the AGI narrative functions primarily as a justification for otherwise unjustifiable capital concentration. For nuclear advocates, the question is not whether AI demand is real today, but whether the speculative reactor developers pricing in hyperscaler contracts will still have a business if the AI bubble deflates.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media