Why Reform’s rise isn't a surprise

Lots to talk about today, including new polling which puts Reform on 29 points compared to the Tories on just 17. We’ve also just had the first PMQs since the local elections. But the trade deal announced yesterday between the UK and India is dominating the headlines, with many concerned about some of the concessions made – namely the decision to exempt some short-term Indian workers from national insurance as part of the new agreement. This comes barely a week after the local elections, where immigration has been widely considered the most salient issue. The Conservatives have gone on the attack, despite the fact that a trade deal with India was supposed to be one of the major gains from Brexit – an example of how Britain could ‘venture out into the world’ and open up trade with fast-growing economies. Are the Tories now against free trade? Interestingly, Kemi Badenoch omitted to ask about the trade deal at PMQs today, choosing instead to question Keir Starmer on the ongoing concerns around winter fuel and the pressure from many elements within his party to at least water down the policy. Can Starmer afford to U-turn? James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Paul Goodman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

It’s day five of recriminations after the local elections, with politicians, pollsters and journalists alike still trying to make sense of what just happened. On today’s podcast, Rachel Wolf gives her verdict: we should not be shocked by Reform’s surge. She argues that Nigel Farage’s success should have been predicted – that it’s the same, distinctly anti-political silent majority who ‘surprised’ us during Brexit, ‘surprised’ us in 2019 and are ‘surprising’ us now.  How will Labour respond? Will they U-turn on winter fuel? And is Boris Johnson the only one who can win back these disillusioned voters for the Tories? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Rachel Wolf, CEO of Public First and former adviser to Boris Johnson. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

In this special edition of Coffee House Shots, Lucy Dunn speaks to the Holyrood leader of the pro-independence Alba party, Ash Regan. Regan was formerly a member of the SNP and even ran to be the party’s leader after Nicola Sturgeon resigned in 2023. She defected to the late Alex Salmond’s Alba party 18 months ago and ran for party leader after his death. On the podcast, she talks to Lucy about the difference between Alba and the SNP, the threat of Reform in Scotland, the ‘performative’ nature of Scottish politics, the Supreme Court ruling over what is a woman, and why she was right to resign over the Gender Recognition Bill.

The two main parties are reeling after local elections in which Reform surged to huge wins. Wes Streeting has admitted that Reform could be Labour’s main opposition by the next election. Tory MP Nigel Huddleston says Kemi Badenoch will remain as Tory leader, Reform chairman Zia Yusuf hints they may use legal action to prevent migrants being housed in hotels, and Ed Davey wants the Liberal Democrats to 'call out' Reform. 

As the parties regroup following the local elections, both Labour and the Conservatives have to face a miserable result. Lucy Dunn speaks to Isabel Hardman and pollster Luke Tryl about the anger and disillusionment amongst the electorate, and why Keir Starmer message 'we need to go further and faster' can't cut through.  

The word ‘unprecedented’ is often overused in politics, but these local elections have proved to be just that. The headline is: sweeping success for Reform.  Nigel Farage's 'teal tsunami' comes at the expense of the main parties – turning the two-party consensus on its head. The recriminations for Labour and the Tories have already begun. On the left, a number of MPs have broken cover and urged the government to shift its position on high-salience issues such as winter fuel. On the right, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is looking increasingly shaky, with Tory MPs and staff warning that a step change is needed. Where do the main parties go from here? And can anyone stop Nigel? James Heale speaks to Isabel Hardman and The Spectator’s incoming political editor, Tim Shipman. This episode was recorded as part of The Spectator’s local elections live broadcast. You can watch the full coverage here.

Votes are being counted across England, but there is a clear early winner from these local elections: Nigel Farage. His party triumphed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election this morning, overturning a 14,000-odd majority and winning by just six votes! Elsewhere, Andrea Jenkyns triumphed in Lincolnshire; Reform came second in a number of mayoral races; and their 38 per cent vote share in Runcorn matches the best-ever performance that Ukip achieved in a by-election. So far, the story is one of teal triumph – at the expense of the two main parties. Labour are already pointing to the difficulty incumbents often face at local elections, and will claim victory after narrowly holding out in three mayoral races: North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster. The Tories, however, appear to have totally capitulated – but with widespread results for councils across England expected later, that could all change. Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Lucy Dunn. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Voters have gone to the polls today for a historic set of local elections. The polling indicates a rough night for the two main parties and a good showing for Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens. So be prepared for a lot of election-night spin from both Labour and the Tories. To talk through the various ways in which politicians can claim victory in the face of defeat, James Heale is joined by our editor, Michael Gove – no stranger to the media round himself. They discuss the best candidates to face up to the media from both the Tories and Labour, as well as some of the greatest examples of post-election spin from history. Michael also gives an insight into his own tactics when trying to divert the narrative away from electoral disaster and when encouraging the media to ‘calm down’. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Tony Blair is making waves in Westminster today after his institute published a report on net zero that appears to undermine Ed Miliband and Labour’s green agenda. In his foreword – while not directly critical of the UK government – he encouraged governments around the world to reconsider the cost of net zero. Many have compared Blair’s comments to those made by Kemi Badenoch several weeks ago and questioned the timing – just 48 hours before the local elections. What is Blair up to? Should Labour listen to Tony? Also on the podcast, with the local elections tomorrow, we take one final look at the polling. With Labour expecting big losses, how can the party spin the results? James Heale speaks to the pollster James Johnson and John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair. Produced by Oscar Edmondson. For tickets to our local elections shake-up event with Jacob Rees Mogg and Zia Yusuf, click here. 

Mark Carney has won the Canadian election, leading the Liberal Party to a fourth term. Having only been Prime Minister for 6 weeks, succeeding Justin Trudeau, this is an impressive achievement when you consider that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were over 20 percentage points ahead in the polls earlier this year. Trump’s rhetoric against Canada – engaging in a trade war and calling for the country to become the 51st state – is credited as turning around the fortunes of the Liberals. Are there lessons for conservatives across the anglosphere, including Kemi Badenoch? Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and Michael Martins. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.