What’s the Future of U.S.-Russia Arms Control?

Viktor Orban was one of the most prominent Russia supporters in Europe, blocking aid to Ukraine and trying to soften EU sanctions against Russia. Now that he is gone, will there be a drastic change in Hungary's foreign policy and relations with Moscow? Was Russia able to influence EU policy at all through Hungary? And what can be expected of the new Russia-sympathetic government of Rumen Radev in Bulgaria?

On February 5, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the New START, expired. Absent this or a similar agreement, the world is a more dangerous place—particularly given the nuclear buildup in China, proliferation and rapid evolution of military technologies, and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Still, Rose Gottemoeller, who was the lead U.S. negotiator of the New START, remains cautiously optimistic about the future of arms control. What could lead to a revival of U.S.-Russia and international talks to contain the risks of nuclear war? And what lessons from cooperation between the two countries in areas like civilian nuclear power and space could be applicable for the future? Rose Gottemoeller’s book Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations After the Cold War can be pre-ordered here.  

Central Asia’s countries have been the focus of increased attention since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been involved in parallel imports, feeding the Kremlin’s war economy, but have also hosted thousands of anti-war refugees from Russia and occasionally demonstrated support for Ukraine, despite Moscow’s ire. Now, with the war in Iran unfolding on their doorstep, the five states must navigate new challenges while not alienating the major local players—Russia and China—and further afield, the United States. What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? How are Russia and China competing and cooperating in Central Asia, and what is the region’s approach to managing the Beijing-Moscow axis?    

At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also consumed by its own costly war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the Kremlin has provided the Iranian regime with limited assistance, but hopes to reap greater benefits from the second-order effects of the chaos in the Middle East unleashed by Trump. How does the war affect Russia both in the Middle East and globally? How do volatile oil prices benefit the Russian war machine, and how long will the effect of this new war last for Russia?

Following the initiation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last summer, there is still a long way to go before the conclusion of a formal agreement and sustainable peace in the region. In the wake of a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and a plethora of signed agreements, the South Caucasus finds itself less and less dependent on a previous regional hegemon: Russia. What does this mean for the region? What obstacles remain on the road to a full-fledged peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Check out the paper here.

The Russian economy has been under intense pressure from sanctions, the demands of war, and structural challenges. Still, it isn’t collapsing, despite predictions and wishful thinking on the part of the West. How healthy is the Russian economy, and how much strain can it handle in 2026?

This year’s World Economic Forum took place amid turbulent transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has renewed his plans for “getting” Greenland, threatening to annex part of a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages on, while the peace talks have stalled. What is the state of the European discussion on relations with the U.S.? Can Europe support Ukraine while managing its own domestic challenges and a volatile U.S. foreign policy? What are Western leaders thinking in terms of their Russia strategy?

Under Putin, Russia has established a relationship with Venezuela, and was heavily involved in the country until recent years. The Chavez and then Maduro regimes bought Russian weapons with sizeable loans from the Kremlin, Moscow ordered its energy companies to invest in Venezuelan oil fields, and Russia boasted of having secured a foothold in the U.S.’s backyard. With Trump’s swift and successful operation to arrest Maduro, the situation has changed. What are the implications for Russia’s global posture? What can the Kremlin do, and will it do anything? Will deposing Maduro lead to a situation in which Venezuelan oil floods global markets with U.S. help?

India and Russia have a mutually beneficial relationship going back decades, and since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, India’s strategic importance for Russia has grown considerably. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Trump administration, which has slapped additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. To maintain its position as an emerging global powerhouse, India must navigate not only an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, but also a more assertive China that is exploiting Russia’s asymmetrical dependence, and a Europe that is unhappy about New Delhi’s ties to Moscow.

Russia went from a tsarist empire and the totalitarian USSR to the freedom of the 1990s, complete with hopes of becoming a European democracy. Unfortunately, multiple missteps and reckless foreign policy endeavors have resulted in Russia becoming a security threat to Europe and its own neighbors. Two Chechen wars, the invasion of Georgia, and annexation of Crimea paved the way for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. How did it end up this way? Were there signs? What is the current state of Russian society?