The Macro Memo - The Macro Memo: Trade Wars & Business Strategy: Planning Through Uncertainty

This episode of The Macro Memo podcast delves into the intersection of macroeconomics and geopolitics, highlighting how these factors are reshaping business strategies. With discussions on the shift from neoliberal globalization to a multipolar world, the importance of understanding geopolitical risks for international expansion is emphasized. The conversation also touches on sustainability reporting, the varying approaches to climate change between the US and Europe, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in productivity. As businesses navigate economic uncertainty, the need for a balance between regulation and deregulation is underscored, alongside a cautious optimism about future government policies.

In this special edition of The Macro Memo, we examine the seismic shifts in global trade policy following dramatic US tariff announcements. With duties briefly imposed on over 90 countries—before being swiftly revised to a flat 10% and a steep 145% on China—boards and executive teams now face extraordinary volatility in trade conditions and economic indicators.Host Gavin Hinks is joined by economist George Lagarias and business strategist Mark Kennedy to dissect what this all means for business leaders. The episode explores how tariffs impact inflation, supply chains, business modeling, and investor sentiment, and why managing uncertainty must now be a core leadership skill. From stock market turbulence to Treasury yield dislocations, our experts assess both the risks and the surprising opportunities that lie ahead.We also look at how corporate leaders should think about resilience—balancing cost control with agility, resourcefulness, and long-term strategic positioning. As firms pause investment decisions and rethink market exposure, the episode offers a clear-headed guide to scenario planning, talent retention, and the potential realignment of global trade. 

In a discussion hosted by Gavin Hinks, Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias explore the impact of the US election results, the rise of populism in Europe and the intricate relationship between macroeconomics, geopolitics, and business. They highlight the ongoing volatility in business environments, particularly in light of the US election result and its shifting global leadership. The conversation touches on trade tensions, especially between the US and China, and the potential for positive economic outcomes despite challenges. They also address the importance of European unity in the face of rising populism and the need for political cohesion to enhance competitiveness. Overall, the sentiment remains optimistic as businesses navigate these complex dynamics.

The EU faces little choice but to act on recommendations from a high level report that it needs to invest €750m to €800m a year to head off economic “decline” in the trading bloc, according to a leading economist.George Lagarias, the chief economist at professional services firm Forvis Mazars, says there will be difficulties negotiating the investment funds as a “common” pot of borrowing, particularly against claims that it could threaten the national sovereignty of EU member states. But, Lagarias warns, European leaders have no choice, despite the downside risks.“Will Europe get there? As an economist, I don’t think it has any other choice. Eventually, that’s where things lead us,” Lagarias said.Lagarias makes his comments in the latest episode of The Macro Memo, a Board Agenda podcast exploring global economic developments.The podcast also reflected on the coming budget—the UK’s first under the new Labour government—due to take place on 30 October.Lagarias noted that the chancellor Rachel Reeves would need one eye on “extremely jittery bond markets” which “definitely raises the level of difficulty”.The Reeves budget faces having to address budget black holes, sluggish growth and the need to repair public services.Tune in to the latest episode of The Macro Memo podcast for analysis and insight about the impact of upcoming events on business and the economy, in partnership with Forvis Mazars.

 How will the result of the US election outcome affect geo politics? Is the Fed on the brink of its first rate cut? How has it got there? What implications does it have for the US economy? What are the implications for the global economy? What will the impact be on trade? Is Keir Starmer building bridges to the EU and can he really soothe trade relations? Is it just confidence building or are there hard agreement to be reached? All this and more in this episode of Board Agenda's podcast 'The Macro Memo' in association with Forvis Mazars. 

This episode of the Macro Memo podcast explores the impact of elections on business and economics, focusing on the European elections, the French election, and the upcoming UK general election. Business leaders expect a “volatile” time as they manage the fall out from high inflation during a time of political uncertainty as elections play out in the UK, the US and in Europe. The warning came from Mark Kennedy, a partner at Forvis Mazars, on Board Agenda’s Macro Memo podcast.He was reflecting on the way business adapted to high interest rates and inflation and how those lessons will inform their approach now as rates remain high. "Business leaders are very rational. They've done the analysis and said, 'This is going to be volatile for a while."France is about to stage National Assembly elections and the US will go through presidential elections in November. European election have just seen shift to the right. The UK goes to the polls on 4 July with pollsters expecting a win for the Labour Party. George Lagarias, chief economist with Forvis Mazars, said what investors would really need to see is resolution of the trade frictions cause by Brexit and a more predictable business environment. Lagarias said “I think Britain’s strength is boredom. No offence because boring means predictable. Boring means legal systems where laws and regulations are not changed too often. That is much needed by business.”Lagarias also said a shift to the right in Europe could cause issues for trade. “The more we stray from the centre, the more we stray from mainstream politics, the more problems get out of hand".Tune in to the latest episode of 'The Macro Memo' podcast for analysis and insight about the impact of upcoming elections on business and the economy. 

A great wave of regulation is washing across business: capital rules for banks, cyber security and sustainability reporting mean corporate leaders appear to be in a new age of oversight. What’s driving this rule-making overdrive and how should business respond?Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda—also ask why London is struggling as a centre for IPOs and, with the Paris Olympics just around the corner, we ask whether showpiece events can really boost finance and economics?Those are some the big issues under discussion in this month’s Macro Memo podcast as it explores the international business landscape.All this and much more in Board Agenda’s podcast series, The Macros Memo, the global trends briefing for boards and directors. You can access the podcast via Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts. Don’t forget to hit subscribe.

The global economic landscape appears to be going through a form of fragmentation. There are growing tensions between the US and China over “dumping” of industrial products; the German economy is in “troubled waters”; France has revised down its growth; and the UK has sunk into recession (though could emerge quickly). Yet the largest developing world economies continue to do grow at a clip. What’s driving the differential performance? And how should business respond?These are among the big questions tackled in this month’s The Macro Memo podcast, as it considers an evolving economic environment.The team—Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda—also consider the maturing, or more realistic, view of artificial intelligence and its prospects, and examine what European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen (pictured) could do to improve EU competitiveness.

The Macro Memo podcast looks ahead at prospects for 2024. Some observers think the inflation crisis is close to resolution. But is it? And what are the implications for business and, most importantly, interest rates.  Those are some of the big questions tackled by The team—Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda, who also look at the risk of trade wars and whether the EU’s concern with Chinese electric cars reflects bigger issues.Lastly, this episode looks at labour markets and how companies will cope with a global shortage of skills, a big theme of the World Economic Forum’s meeting this year in Davos.

COP 28 is underway in Dubai but what responsibility do business leaders have for beating climate change? How will trade benefit from from US and European efforts to improve relations with China? And can companies in the EU, and elsewhere, expect an interest rate cut for Christmas? Mark Kennedy, partner and member of Mazar’s group executive board, alongside George Lagarias, Mazars’ chief economist, offer their thoughts on global trends to Board Agenda’s Gavin Hinks in this edition of Macro Memo.