The Precipice

Here on the Bear Market Brief, a lot of what we focus on is, simply put, risk: what might happen, and what might it mean? On this episode, geoeconomic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to delve in the discipline of Political Risk: how does one "do" the field? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

The two weeks after Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky’s Oval Office clash have precipitated drastic shifts in transatlantic relations and the potential trajectory of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now a possible ceasefire is on the horizon. This week on the Bear Market Brief podcast, host Aaron Schwartzbaum and Maximilian Hess make sense of the Oval Office blow-up, discuss President Trump’s strategic aims, Russia’s goals, Europe’s response, the US-Ukraine minerals deal, and what might come next with Russia sanctions. This episode was recorded on March 3, 2025.For more about economic warfare in the 21st century, be sure to check out Max’s newsletter, Conflict and Credit This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Where does the US stand in the world as Trump (re)assumes office? How is his approach towards Ukraine shaping up? Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore the broader context and drivers of how policy towards Russia will, and will not, be made. Read Stephen’s latest piece for Foreign Affairs here.This episode was recorded on December 20, 2024. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Between a Russian offensive and the reelection of Donald Trump, the war in Ukraine hangs in the balance. Janis Kluge joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore how we got here and what might happen next. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Kyiv-based journalist Fabrice Deprez returns to the brief for another update on the mood in Ukraine, including a report on his recent trip to the front line city of Pokrovsk.For more reporting from Ukraine, be sure to check out Fabrice’s Eastern Radar newsletter. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Why has the Global South, historically on the receiving end of colonialism and imperialism, maintained what might be called a neutral stance towards Russia's war against Ukraine? Ivan Grek, Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Russia has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn over the last decade, but is its political system fascist? Marlene Laruelle and Julian Waller join to discuss the blurry lines between politics, ideology, and terminology. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

The Bear Market Brief goes nuclear! Andrey Baklitskiy dropped by to discuss all Russia's strategic red lines, what the introduction of hypersonic weapons means for global security, and more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

If we know how Russia's presidential election is going to turn out... why even bother holding the election? Join Aaron Schwartzbaum, András Tóth-Czifra, and Olga Khvostunova for an exploration of electoral autocracy and the political moment. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com

Despite Western economic policy, Russia has been able to continue its war against Ukraine, and even seen economic growth. Join as we kick off our season with Nick Trickett and Iikka Korhonen investigating what's driving Russia's economy these days, and whether sanctions are "working." This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bearmarketbrief.substack.com