Markets Weekly podcast (28 September 2026): How to spot the turn in the AI cycle

In this week's podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue to reflect on the bond markets in 2025 and provide insights on what will be the driving forces in 2026. They discuss if central banks are done with interest rate cuts and if the bond markets are too complacent about the inflation outlook. Additionally, they explore what large-scale, AI-related capital expenditure means for credit markets.

As tech makes up about 37% of the S&P 500 – above its dot-com peak – a sell-off in the Magnificent 7 could have significant repercussions for the market. But how would investors know if the AI cycle is turning? In this week’s podcast, Nikola Vasiljevic, Head of Global Asset Allocation, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, as they discuss four signals and four scenarios for investors to watch out for and what it all means for portfolios.

There has been a significant decoupling between credit and rates, with investment grade and high yield spreads remarkably resilient amid substantial volatility in government bond yields. In this week’s podcast, Aleksandar Devic, Fixed Income Strategist, joins co-hosts Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, and Judiyah Amirthanathar, Market Strategist, as they discuss the fiscal challenges in major economies, corporate credit fundamentals and the recent surge in AI-related issuance.

Has the constant stream of information made investors better informed or simply more reactive? In this week’s podcast, Alex Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, joins co-hosts Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, and Judiyah Amirthanathar, Market Strategist, as they discuss the core principles of successful long-term investing, investor psychology, behavioural resilience and the common mistakes made by investors.

Higher debt, heavier bond issuance and fiscal uncertainty are changing the fixed income landscape. In this week’s podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins co-hosts Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, and Judiyah Amirthanathar, Market Strategist, as they explore why long-end yields could remain volatile, why rates may stay higher for now, and where investors can still find value across credit.

In this week’s podcast, Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, is joined by a new co-host, Judiyah Amirthanathar, Market Strategist, to discuss key topics on investors’ minds. These include the outlook for US interest rates, the impact of inflation on company earnings and the implications of the surge in AI-related spending.

AI-driven earnings growth has supported a rally in equity markets this year. But does the latest earnings season suggest this has more to run?

The major central banks kept interest rates unchanged in July, but what happens next? The latest policy meetings were all about the message (or lack of) from central bankers. In this week’s podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, our Chief Market Strategist, as they analyse the latest interest rate decisions in the US, Europe and the UK, how the bond markets have reacted and what they mean for the outlook for rates.

What could Andy Burnham’s first week as UK prime minister reveal about future government policy? In our latest podcast, we explore the political, economic and market implications of the UK’s new leadership and the changes announced so far. Listen in for insights from Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, Alex Jackman from the Regional Corporate Affairs team at Barclays and Luke Mayberry, Investment Strategist.

AI-related companies have helped to propel markets to record highs this year, but how much will AI reshape productivity, labour markets and economic growth? In this week’s podcast, Lukas Gehrig, Head of Quantitative Macro and Thematic Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, our Chief Market Strategist, to explore how much AI could penetrate people’s jobs and whether productivity gains can offset slowing demographic trends.