Why This Crypto Cycle is Over | Michael Nadeau's DeFi Report #7

a16z crypto’s CTO Eddy Lazzarin and partner Daren Matsuoka return for our annual State of Crypto to map where 2025 really is on the curve: a price–innovation cycle poised to hand the baton back to builders, Bitcoin holding ~50% share, and 70M people now using crypto on-chain out of 716M owners. We dig into why institutions are actually shipping (not just PR), how stablecoins now rival Visa-scale volumes and sit among top U.S. Treasury holders, why DEX spot share near 20% changes price discovery, and how perps, infra throughput, and fee-switch economics are reshaping revenue across chains. Plus: prediction markets’ second act, the AI×crypto handshake (agents, proof-of-humanity, IP), and Bitcoin’s long-dated quantum dilemma. --- 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Price–Innovation Cycle: Where We Are Now 3:46 Bitcoin Dominance & Market Correlations 12:09 User Geography & Adoption: MAUs vs Owners 20:15 Institutions & TradFi: Motives, Stablecoins, Integration 27:40 Stablecoin Scale: Volumes, Treasuries & Dollar Power 39:03 Stablecoin Decoupling & DeFi Growth 42:33 Perps, Protocol Revenue & Prediction Markets 47:55 Infrastructure: TPS, Scalability & Bottlenecks 49:51 Token Valuation & Chain Revenue 59:24 Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk: Paths & Responses 1:02:48 AI × Crypto: Use Cases & Decentralization 1:04:00 Outlook & Closing: Predictions & Cycle Top? --- RESOURCES Eddy Lazzarin https://x.com/eddylazzarin Daren Matsuoka https://x.com/DarenMatsuoka a16z’s Quantum Computing Podcast https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/podcast/quantum-computing-what-when-where-how-fact-vs-fiction/ --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Is the crypto cycle already over, or is this just a reset before one last push? Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report joins Ryan to break down why he went 70% cash ahead of the flash crash, what late-cycle data he’s watching, and the signals that would flip him back risk on. We dig into Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, ETH’s $8–10K scenarios, slowing ETF flows, rising leverage, and whether global liquidity and AI could still drive a melt-up. Michael explains why this cycle has felt muted, what would confirm a top, and how he’s positioning into year-end. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io/ ------ 📣BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH-FIRST PUBLIC COMPAN https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find  ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 0:48 Crypto Cycle: Is It Over? Mike's Risk-Off Strategy  https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update 2:15 Flash Crash Insights  3:14 Crypto Investor Profiles  https://thedefireport.io/ 5:40 Understanding Market Cycles  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 7:34 Late Cycle Analysis  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 12:41 Shifting to Risk Off  https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update 18:54 On-Chain Data Insights  https://thedefireport.io/research/where-might-eth-top#scenario-analysis-for-eth 21:47 Stages of the Cycle https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 26:12 Wealth Distribution Phase https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 28:15 Realized Profits Comparison  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 32:00 Global Liquidity Discussion  https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977140156386660654  https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977498706510487748 33:52 Gold vs. Bitcoin  https://x.com/merlijntrader/status/1978793051062509966 1:01:52 The Shittiest Bull Market Ever  https://x.com/cryptorbion/status/1979614717707489461 1:08:31 What Would Change Mike's Mind? https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals 1:17:14 Future of the DeFi Report  https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update  https://thedefireport.io/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Futarchy flips governance on its head—decisions aren’t voted on, they’re traded on.  In this conversation with Felipe Montealegre of Thea Research and Proph3t, co-founder of MetaDAO, we explore how market-driven governance can eliminate the token “rug pull” problem, create true shareholder protections on-chain, and unlock the next era of crypto capital markets.  From prediction markets and token design to MetaDAO’s “ownership coins,” this is how futarchy could make crypto investable again. ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:51 What is Futarchy? 4:26 US Capital Markets vs Futarchy 6:39 Futarchy Incentives 12:01 Futarchy Market Participants 16:05 A New Form of Governance 18:59 Liquidity & Insider Participation 24:03 Futarchy Genesis 31:31 Crypto Rugs 47:45 Trustworthy Tokens 53:00 Umbra Example 1:00:37 MetaDao 1:07:20 Unrugable Tokens 1:12:42 Regulation 1:18:31 What’s Next? 1:20:48 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Felipe Montealegre https://x.com/theiaresearch  Proph3t https://x.com/metaproph3t  MetaDao https://metadao.fi/  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Markets just saw a $19B wipeout in a single day. In this week’s Weekly Rollup, we break down the Friday Flash Crash, what really caused it, and whether it signals the end of the cycle or just a reset. We also cover Binance’s leaked listing fees, a major Chinese tech company quietly building on Ethereum, and reports that the U.S. may add $14B in Bitcoin to its strategic reserve. Plus, Democrats renew their push against DeFi, and Larry Fink gears up for BlackRock’s next big crypto play. ------ 📣IMMUNEFI | CRYPTO SECURITY OS  https://bankless.cc/Immunefi ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 3:14 Markets https://x.com/sykodelic_/status/1978728444038152542 https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart https://x.com/Pledditor/status/1978783238614126798 https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1978254468970909820 https://x.com/iamDCinvestor/status/1978227611722486016 https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1978800773480825133 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1978441509788590590 https://x.com/growthepie_eth/status/1978460964245631206 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1978549428114882674 https://x.com/jconorgrogan/status/1978563381880582649 https://x.com/Paxos/status/1978565015943950411 https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Kerrisdale-BitMine-Immersion.pdf https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/ https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/1978562431640346760 29:31 Black Friday - (Flash Crash Friday) of 2025 https://x.com/kookcapitalllc/status/1976778625942011964 https://x.com/QuintenFrancois/status/1976906323058213118 https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976664345435414918 https://x.com/diogenes/status/1976947177520808270 https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1977000112216805431 https://x.com/diogenes/article/1976947177520808270/media/1976938624139841536 https://x.com/0xdoug/status/1976850615621107743 https://x.com/wacy_time1/status/1976772080768368886 https://x.com/lighter_xyz/status/1976855873344749847 https://x.com/Rabby_io/status/1912055838702784639 https://x.com/StaniKulechov/status/1976777483824644454 https://x.com/traderview2/status/1976762799159234661 https://x.com/cobie/status/1976788855006302686 https://x.com/kris/status/1976939942254461094 https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1976875434785554831 48:21 Binance listing fees were leaked https://x.com/sjdedic/status/1852049944380932142 https://x.com/cjhtech/status/1978039748565532700 https://x.com/jessepollak/status/1978095944232026236 https://x.com/CryptoDefiLord/status/1978353232838623581 https://x.com/PhilOnChain/status/1978498099493621941 https://x.com/ViktorBunin/status/1978445847235907632 https://x.com/cz_binance/status/1978391907374899379 https://x.com/gregosuri/status/1853219191391650137 https://www.bankless.com/podcast/exposing-binances-listing-fees-cj-hetherington 54:05 MEGAETH VS MONAD TOKENS https://x.com/monad/status/1978525785800495400 https://x.com/megaeth_labs/status/1978449245931012439 https://www.bankless.com/read/news/megaeth-commences-mega-ico-registration-on-cobies-sonar-platform 58:01 Ant Group - Alipay introduced its L2  https://x.com/james_gaps/status/1978350046861984079 https://x.com/Jrag0x/status/1978358112458342697 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1978431508575613213 59:51 Ethereum Phone - dGEN1 left the factory  https://x.com/jessepollak/status/1976710468539715895 1:01:19 US seized 127,000 BTC linked to pig butchering scam https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/1978101347401539638 https://x.com/SilvermanJacob/status/1978121251303334130 https://x.com/business/status/1978122242895630685 https://x.com/tayvano_/status/1978273602719158448 https://x.com/zackbshapiro/status/1978151239796854817 1:06:02 Dems countered the Market Structure bill  https://x.com/jchervinsky/status/1976380118437331425 https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1976678889909805501 1:08:54 Closing & Disclaimers  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

A $19B liquidation wave hit crypto 10 days after Lighter’s public mainnet—so we asked founder/CEO Vladimir Novakovski why they built a ZK L2 Perp DEX on Ethereum, how the escape hatch actually protects users, and what really happened under extreme stress. We dig into ADL vs. LLP, trader-first design, and why verifiability (not vibes) should govern order matching and liquidations. Vlad shares throughput targets, why Lighter chose custom ZK circuits over a generalized ZKVM, and what’s next: Spot, universal cross-margin, and a ZKVM sidecar for a broader platform play. We close with lessons from the cascade, realistic tradeoffs of being an L2, and how L2Beat “stage upgrades” fit into the roadmap. --- 📣IMMUNEFI | CRYPTO SECURITY OS https://bankless.cc/Immunefi --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:04 Guest Intro & ZK L2 “Why” 4:58 L2 Security & Verifiability 11:35 Verifiable Matching & Liquidations 14:02 Mainnet Launch & Liquidation Stress Test 18:16 Outage: Timeline & Make-Good 18:58 Scorecard: Lighter vs Hyperliquid vs Binance 22:20 ADL 101: Why Automated Deleveraging Exists 32:32 “Customer-First” Design Stance 38:32 Takeaways: Transparency, Proofs, Details 41:48 Causes Considered & Vlad’s Market Lens 49:31 Why a Perp DEX: Product & Fit 57:42 L1 vs L2: Tradeoffs, Sovereignty, Incentives 1:06:45 Roadmap: Spot, ZKVM Sidecar, Cross-Margin, New Markets 1:11:21 Points, Token Timing & Transparency 1:15:31 Closing Thoughts --- RESOURCES Vladimir Novakovski https://x.com/vnovakovski Lighter https://x.com/lighter_xyz --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Binance listing fees, finally out in the open. CJ Hetherington, Founder of Limitless, published the offer he received after no NDA. 8% of total token supply and $250k. We dig into why the founders accept deals like this, the hidden sell pressure, and how onchain price discovery can replace CEX gatekeeping. CJ also breaks down Limitless on Base, instant-settlement price markets, and the path to Coinbase via Aerodrome. ------ 📣IMMUNEFI | CRYPTO SECURITY OS https://bankless.cc/Immunefi ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Centralized Exchange Listing Fees 3:08 The Binance Drama Unfolds 3:41 Introducing Limitless 5:00 Conversation with CJ 15:28 The Hidden Costs of Listing Fees 25:17 The Future of Onchain Markets 28:44 Building on Base 32:39 Limitless: A New Prediction Market 43:43 Exploring Limitless Features 53:10 User-Generated Markets & Censorship 1:06:10 How to Engage with Limitless ------ RESOURCES CJ https://x.com/cjhtech Limitless https://x.com/trylimitless ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes map how crypto is flipping Wall Street: BTC at fresh highs, ETH’s comeback, and a surge of institutional capital, tokenization, and stablecoin rails. Tom lays out Bitmine’s big ETH accumulation and bold targets (BTC $200–250k, ETH $10–12k), while Arthur dives into cycles, liquidity, why perps outshine leveraged ETFs, and the looming clash between prediction markets and TradFi. Plus: banks turning into on-chain tech companies and what Tether’s rise signals for the new banking stack. Please visit https://fundstrat.com/tom  for complimentary access to Tom Lee's daily market updates, real-time market alerts, live webinars, and curated stock lists. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24  https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 🐂BULLISH | TRADING COMPETITION https://bankless.cc/trading-competition 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:42 BTC All Time Highs 5:07 ETH Performance & Bitmine 9:32 DATs Market 15:26 4-Year Cycles 25:32 5% Bitmine’s Target 28:00 Tom’s Involvement in Ethereum 32:42 ETH’s Position 38:37 Compute for Finance 40:53 Tether’s $500B Valuation 44:57 USDT Flips BTC? 46:35 Crypto Equities 48:26 Hacks & Exploits 50:39 Financial Entertainment 55:13 Perps 58:38 Price Targets 1:00:45 2026 Wish List 1:03:06 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Tom Lee https://x.com/fundstrat  Arthur Hayes X - https://x.com/cryptohayes IG - https://www.instagram.com/cryptohayes/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthur-hayes-b493b42/ Substack - https://cryptohayes.substack.com/ Bitmine https://bitminetech.io/  Fundstrat https://fundstrat.com/tom  Maelstrom https://maelstrom.fund/  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Gold shatters $4,000, Bitcoin quietly hits new all-time highs, and Wall Street just made its biggest bet yet on prediction markets. In this week’s Weekly Rollup, we break down why the debasement trade is heating up, how the AI bubble is shaping markets, and what it all means for crypto’s next move. We cover BNB’s explosive run to the #3 spot, ICE’s $2B investment in Polymarket, and ETH staking ETFs officially going live. Plus, Solana ETF approval looks imminent, Asian capital rotates onchain, and Galaxy steps back into retail with a familiar face at the helm. ------ 📣IMMUNEFI | CRYPTO SECURITY OS  https://bankless.cc/Immunefi ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 🐂BULLISH | TRADING COMPETITION https://bankless.cc/trading-competition 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 3:31  Markets https://www.theblock.co/post/373369/bitcoin-hits-new-all-time-high-crosses-125000-for-the-first-time-as-uptober-momentum-builds https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1973766977421275598 https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1975562328377528702  https://x.com/jvb_xyz/status/1975047567852671125 https://x.com/matthew_sigel/status/1976251057421647886 https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals https://x.com/Grayscale/status/1975262626377834938 https://x.com/joechalom/status/1975251314117648420 https://x.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1975147566351237315 https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1976037299373646270 21:56 Gold ATH, Equities at ATH and PTJ is calling out the AI bubble! https://x.com/elerianm/status/1975782709084500136 https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/#google_vignette https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1975608283751981521 https://x.com/FluentInFinance/status/1975704684808560774 https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1975121018428809484 https://x.com/noahkaufmanmd/status/1975930839201702195 https://x.com/1MarkMoss/status/1973775891626164276 https://thedefireport.io/research/does-bitcoin-follow-gold#correlation-analysis https://x.com/esaagar/status/1975290951787745581 https://x.com/spikedoanz/status/1975806155470635429 https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1975589846971523102 https://x.com/pumatheuma/status/1976085531500200220?s=46 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/06/cnbc-transcript-tudor-investments-founder-cio-paul-tudor-jones-on-squawk-box-today.html https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/1975363814167380090  https://x.com/dgt10011/status/1975353090128638415 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1975560592166355425 41:48 Why is BNB pumping! https://imgur.com/a/4d6Pnb3 https://x.com/cz_binance/status/1975595775540257262 https://defillama.com/chain/bsc https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1975601864423940288 https://x.com/TheCryptoDog/status/1975602134189285606 https://x.com/mattyboomboom/status/1975888004074922144 https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1975909116431515777 https://x.com/eugenegeu/status/1975110416876577133 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cz-returns-binance-speculations-getting-105754644.html 49:17 ICE - NYSE parent company is investing into Polymarket & Distributing Polymarket - $2 billion https://x.com/polymarket/status/1975528768039985449?s=46 https://x.com/CoinDesk/status/1975935472586125456 https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1975534265698812046 https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1975994093529690405?s=46 51:20 Galaxy launched Galaxy One https://x.com/galaxyhq/status/1975173116428234999 https://x.com/GalaxyOneZac/status/1975140872753999932 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/1CDu50yK/?symbol=NASDAQ%3AGLXY https://x.com/solspacecadet/status/1975262934797353010 56:11 Monad Airdrop Claim Portal incoming Tuesday Oct 14th https://x.com/monad/status/1976279260869619994 https://dropstab.com/coins/monad 57:40 3 things Ryan is excited about: https://x.com/RyanSAdams/status/1976044336111341719 https://x.com/Jrag0x/status/1976180218814660675 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1975948961845538985 https://x.com/maxbranzburg/status/1975214629552091239 https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/10/08/privacy-commitment https://notes.ethereum.org/@niard/KohakuRoadmap https://beta.walletbeat.eth.limo/wallet/summary/ 1:02:18 Moment of Zen https://x.com/cocothecorncob/status/1975373485410033673  1:02:45 Closing & Disclaimers ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

In this episode of Bankless, Ryan and David dive into prediction markets and their place in today’s financial landscape. They unpack how peer-to-peer markets differ from traditional sportsbooks, spotlighting Polymarket and Kalshi, and explore scalability, regulation, and societal impact. Are these markets tools for informed decision-making or just another gambling avenue? ------ 📣BANKLESS SUMMIT 2025 | SPONSORED BY M0 https://bankless.cc/summit-2025 https://bankless.cc/M0 ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 🐂BULLISH | TRADING COMPETITION https://bankless.cc/trading-competition 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro to Prediction Markets 2:43 Bankless Summit Announcement 5:32 How Prediction Markets Work 8:06 Who the Big Players Are 14:31 Kalshi’s Breakout and U.S. Access 19:08 Prediction Markets as Media 20:27 How Big Are They Right Now https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1975528768039985449 https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1975534265698812046 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ADKNG 26:17 Where This Is Headed https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1973576583064567961 26:40 Sportsbooks vs. Prediction Markets https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ADKNG https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3AFLUT 31:43 Why Sportsbooks Are Systemically Unfair 39:10 Rules, Regulators, & Court Fights 54:43 Why This Matters for Society 1:00:31 Wrap Up & What to Watch Next ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Why does China build so much faster—and what does that reveal about two very different ways of running a society? Ryan and David sit down with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future, to unpack China’s “engineers-in-charge” model versus America’s “lawyerly” governance. We cover how this shapes daily life and growth (from subways and high-speed rail to batteries, EVs, and drones), common western misconceptions about China (surveillance, social credit, “imminent collapse”), why U.S. capital markets soar while Chinese manufacturing dominates, what an American “abundance agenda” could look like, and Dan’s closing prescription: the U.S. needs ~20% more engineering; China needs ~50% more rights-protecting legalism.  ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24  https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN  https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO  https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 🐂BULLISH | TRADING COMPETITION https://bankless.cc/trading-competition 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY  https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 US Lawyers vs China Builders 8:50 Becoming Elite in China vs US 14:55 Motivating Forces 18:26 China’s Misconceptions 24:38 Protests in China 26:00 US vs China Innovation 27:59 Digital Authoritarianism 34:49 Social Credit System? 36:51 Will China Collapse? 42:53 China & Crypto 47:59 China’s Capital Markets 49:46 Path to Wealth 54:29 Property Rights 58:49 Stock Price vs Productivity 1:02:35 The 1960s 1:04:56 Abundance Agenda 1:06:51 US Weakness Relative to China 1:10:53 The Best of Both Worlds 1:13:43 Is China a Security Threat? 1:14:52 US Manufacturing Comeback? 1:20:20 US Global Talent Hub 1:25:07 China’s US Misconceptions 1:27:03 US Success Scenario 1:29:39 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Dan Wang https://x.com/danwwang  Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠