From the Economist's Chair: Oil in Focus episode 4 - A Fork in the Road

As compras de fertilizantes para a segunda safra de milho 2026-27 do Brasil se aceleraram, mas preços acima do esperado pelos agricultores e a ampla janela de compras mantêm as importações de nitrogênio abaixo do nível do ano anterior.  Acompanhe a conversa entre Renata Cardarelli e Gisele Augusto, que produzem o relatório Argus Brasil Grãos e Fertilizantes.   Os tópicos discutidos neste episódio incluem:   Parcela das necessidades já supridas de fertilizantes para a safrinha  Queda de preços cria oportunidade de compra Guerra no Oriente Média e restrições da China às exportações  Preferência por sulfato de amônio El Niño e limitações no crédito agrícola:  Perspectiva e reposição de estoques

Purchases of fertilizers for Brazil's 2026-27 second corn crop have accelerated, but prices remain higher than farmers expected and the extended purchasing window is keeping nitrogen imports below last year's levels. Listen to the discussion between Renata Cardarelli and Gisele Augusto, who produce the Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizersreport. Topics covered in this episode include:   The share of fertilizer requirements already secured for the second corn crop Lower prices creating buying opportunities The Middle East conflict and China's export restrictions Preference for ammonium sulfate El Niño and agricultural credit constraints Market outlook and inventory replenishment strategy

Freight rates have gone vertical. With tanker costs doubling in September and new threats to Saudi export infrastructure, the economics of oil trade are changing fast. This week on Strait Talk, Argus experts unpack the freight crisis, the growing pressure on Red Sea and Hormuz shipping routes, and what it means for global oil markets. In this week's episode, Tom Reed is joined by John Olett, Head of EMEA Freight, and Nader Itayim, Head of Dubai Editorial examine the military, shipping and market developments shaping Middle East crude flows.

Geopolitics drives mineral markets. Ed Conwayjoins Argus to explore trade wars, rare earths, and if the West can rebuild critical mineral supply chains. The US Gulf Coast gasoline market has undergone notable shifts in 2026, driven by the lasting effects of the US-Iran conflict, changing domestic fuel movements and the seasonal transition to higher-RVP winter gasoline specifications. In this episode of Driving Discussions, Argus experts examine how the temporary Jones Act waiver reshaped Gulf Coast gasoline and blendstock flows, redirecting volumes from the Bahamas to direct shipments between US ports and increasing movements to both the West Coast and Atlantic Coast. The discussion also explores how tightening inventories, strong export demand and ongoing supply concerns have continued to support gasoline prices, even as the summer driving season comes to an end. As the market moves through the fall RVP transition, our specialists analyze evolving blending economics, changing demand for key gasoline components and the supply factors that market participants should watch in the months ahead. Key topics covered: How the US-Iran conflict and Jones Act waiver reshaped Gulf Coast gasoline and blendstock trade flows Why Florida and the Atlantic Coast have become key drivers of Gulf Coast gasoline demand The supply, inventory and export trends supporting gasoline prices despite seasonal demand declines How the fall transition to higher-RVP gasoline is changing blending economics and component demand What refiners, traders and market participants should monitor as regional supply balances evolve Tune in for expert analysis of the market dynamics shaping the US Gulf Coast gasoline sector and the outlook for pricing, trade flows and blending economics heading into the winter gasoline season.

Physical vs. paper disconnect. Crude, diesel and freight markets are signalling stress that futures prices aren't yet capturing — driven by Middle East pipeline disruptions and restricted flows through critical maritime chokepoints. Fragile recovery reversing. A tentative summer rebound in regional exports is losing ground as shipping attacks intensify and instability spreads along key routes. A genuine fork in the road. Either flows are restored and inventories rebuild gradually, or exports fall further — forcing rebalancing through demand destruction: price shocks first, then a broader economic slowdown.

Argus spot prices for the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide are currently ten times higher in the US than in China. Such a gap reflects a world where geopolitics is increasingly shaping commodity markets. But as broadcaster and author Ed Conway argues, the weaponisation of trade, for critical minerals and beyond, is as old as trade itself. In this episode, Ed joins Argus battery materials reporter Chris Welch to discuss his new book, Trade World: The Ties That Bound Our Past and Could Unravel Our Future, exploring whether the global trade is unravelling after all and whether Europe and the US can rebuild their critical minerals industries once again. Key topics include: Why China's rare earth export controls are not new Can Western carmakers build knowledge in partnerships with China? Why pricing power has shifted from carmakers to their suppliers How BYD resembles Henry Ford's vision for cars The impact of declining standardisation of traded goods on pricing

Rotterdam’s record-low VLSFO sales reveal how quickly Europe’s marine fuel market is being reshaped by forces at home and abroad. In this episode, Josh Michalowski (Diesel Reporter, Argus European Products) speaks with Bob Wigin (Fuel Oil Reporter, Argus European Products) about the changing balance between VLSFO and HSFO as RED III alters bunker economics and geopolitical disruption reshapes supply. Key themes: Regulatory impact on European bunker demand Middle East disruption redirects European VLSFO to Asia-Pacific Russian VGO tightness and marine fuel blending

Ammonia production across Europe face major consequences due to mounting pressure on European gas markets. Ahead of winter, record-low inventories, conflict in the Middle East as well as Russian and Ukraine, strong Asian demand and maintenance outages are all pushing delivered gas prices to their highest since 2022. Hear Argus’ essential analysis of the impact of the gas market on Europe’s ammonia industry, covering ammonia production costs, prices, influence of CBAM and decarbonisation, risks to ammonia supply this winter, the prospects for Q1 2027 and food security implications. Join Mike Nash, Senior Editor – Fertilizers and Lizzie Lancaster, Deputy Editor - Ammonia as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.

Weight of Freight: Iron ore and jet fuel, Hormuz knock-on effects

Hear Argus’ essential analysis of what’s driving China’s feed phosphate market. Fresh from the VIV Select China trade show, we discuss market sentiment, price movements, demand trends, and the impact of raw material and production costs on China's feed phosphate sector. We also examine how rising freight rates are shaping export opportunities and take a closer look at tricalcium phosphate (TCP). Join Hui Xuan Lek, Market Reporter – Fertilizers and Johanna Jing, Market Analyst, Phosphate, Potash as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series. Key questions answered in this podcast: What are feed phosphates and what is the relevance of the different grades? VIV Select China Tradeshow: What was the feed phosphate market sentiment at the event? How have prices, demand, raw materials cost and overall production costs impacted the Chinese feed phosphate market? How much of an impact have rising freight costs had on the export market? TCP, Tricalcium Phosphates: How is it produced and why has there been growing demand for it, particularly in Europe and Japan?