132. Minutes: Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2024

Last week, Laurent was in Athens for the spectacular Eurelectric Summit (we will talk more about it in 2 weeks’ time, with a special Episode) meanwhile, we bring in our friend Jan-Michael Hess, organiser of the Berlin EcoSummit 4-5 June to discuss Clean Tech and his annual gathering of more than 100 Start-Ups and hundreds of investors.If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/  

"McKinsey, BCG and S&P Global Commodity Insights project electricity demand tied to data centers to increase at a CAGR of 15% through 2030." “Booming AI demand threatens global electricity supply (FT)”. Media and consultants have recently raised the alarm about the unquenchable energy thirst of AI and datacentres.  Can we believe those predictions or is it another scaremongering wave like we saw 15 years ago, when prophets predicted that the internet would soon consume 50% of the world power?Laurent and Gerard prefer to go directly to the source. So, we have invited Michael Terrell, Senior Director Energy and Climate at Google. Google is one of the Top 5 purchasers of Green Electricity in the world, and Michael is one of the key architects for providing 24/7 green power to their 28 datacenters around the world.With Michael, we analyse why datacenters consume so much energy. We also discuss why the overall grid has not melted down despite ominous predictions a decade ago, as energy efficiency improvements have been spectacular. We talk about fostering the purchase of green energy and especially 24/7. We discuss new tech, whether software (Tapestry) or hardtech (geothermal, nuclear, LDES) and why Google and others BigTech are fostering them. Finally, we discuss the development of AI and its impact on the future demand.All in all, a great discussion but more importantly a very optimistic dialogue, where we see that we – the Energy Transition Brotherhood – are a force for good and we will defeat – easily – the old guard of fossil fuel lobbyists and scaremongers.   We thank Amundi for supporting our show

We bring in the star of the week, Ember’s Dave Jones, to discuss the Global Electricity Review 2024, published last week.Main take aways (thank you Nat Bullard): Renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass) are now 30% of global electricity supply.Solar generation increased 23% yoy; wind 10%.Fossil fuel generation increased 0.8%.If not for a decline in hydro production, renewables would have met almost the entirety of the global increase in electricity demand.We are entering a new era of electricity with three great flexors acting on a complex and growing supply mix:Continued growth of wind+solar increasing global clean electron supplyVariations in hydro and nuclear productionDemand driven by electrification, data, and global wealth https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2024/ We partner with EcoSummit Berlin, the annual unique gathering for startups and investors to discuss to decarbonise our economy and save our climate. Berlin 4-5 June. If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/Finally Happy Anniversary to Paul Chapman and his excellent podcast HC Insider who is about to change name to HC Commodities podcast. 200th episode. Really if you are interested in Commodities markets, from Oil to Power to Metals to Ags, Trading , they are the best.

Distribution grids are facing new challenges. On the one hand, they experience a growth of local demand, with EV charging, heat pumps and datacenters. On the other, they must accommodate with the fast deployment of decentralised energy such as rooftop solar and batteries. How to reconcile those challenges while maintaining grid stability? And how can Utilities, hooked up on rates and CAPEX start thinking differently and adopt new technologies? Beyond the regulatory changes and technical investments, some cultural shifts need to be implemented. And a lot of solutions are digital.That’s the job of our guest, Robert Denda. Robert is CEO of Gridspertise, a new company carved out two years ago out of ENEL. Previously, he was Head of Innovation & Industrialization (since June 2021) at the Enel Global Infrastructure and Networks and Head of Network Technology and Innovation (since June 2015) at the same business line of the Enel Group, leading the development of and application of digital grid technologies at the largest privately-owned international operator of power distribution grids, serving 74 million customers.  Gridspertise today is an independent company jointly controlled by is a 50/50 JV between Enel and investment fund CVC Capital Partners, valued almost 1bnEUR, headquartered in Italy but also present in Spain, Brazil, USA, Germany and Scandinavia the Nordics. Its Enterprise Value was valued 625M EUR at the time of the transaction, with potential deferred payments that could bring the enterprise value up to 1bn EUR.Our conversation encompasses several themes, from smart meters to sensors, from cyber security to AI, from performance to business trends. Solutions are being implemented daily to speed up the Energy Transition.   We thank Amundi, EU largest Asset Manager, for supporting the show

We hear conflicting messages regarding the status of the EV market. On the bright side, IEA predicts 17mEV to be sold this year, EV and Hybrids reach 50% market share in China for Q1, more than 500 EV models are currently on the market. On the dark side, Tesla and BYD deliveries were down in Q1_24, Tesla revenues were down 9% compared to Q1_23 and the price war has cut the EPS in 2.Has Tesla lost its mojo or will Elon refocus and reboot. Lots of announcements, but also a 10% cut in the workforce, and a depressed share price. Meanwhile the “Oil Street Journal” and other publications have been repeating ad nauseum (but falsely) that the EV Story is over.In fact, EV sales in Q1 2024 were 21% higher than Q1 2023. China led the way with at 31% growth with the US and Canada at 13%, and EU and EFTA trailing behind at a 7%. Removal of the BEV subsidies in Germany showing their full impact there.There are also a lot of questions about protectionism, as Elon Musk just declared that “Chinese automakers would "demolish" most of the world's other car companies if there were no trade barriers. Our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world,"To discuss this and the future of the EV market, Laurent brought James Carter. James is a friend of the show and one of the top Auto experts in the world based in Toronto, Canada.And Gerard will be back with us next week. He was simply too busy successfully selling our German Rooftop Solar company Febesol to Thermondo. But that is a story for another day.The pod has just been named number 1 Energy Transition show. Thank you, guys. We love you all.--------PS: when referring to our friend Roger Atkins, Laurent said “Shanghai Auto Show”. Oooops its was Beijing Auto China from which he brings back wondrous stories, including a meeting with the legend Robin Zheng, CATL founder.  

Laurent and Gerard have a rapid overview of what’s going on regarding the Energy Transition in China and its political implication in the West.Record production of this, record production of that, overcapacity everywhere…We babble a lot, rant a bit, and conclude that we need to invite a real expert on the show.  

What is the value of green electrons? Hard to say. Depends where, depends when. What is sure is that, in view of recent regulations and corporate commitments, they must be tracked.From an annual basis, we are now moving to an hourly basis, under the thrust of corporate initiatives like the GhGProtocol, RE-100 and EnergyTag. Behind this movement, BigTech such as Microsoft and Google see a need to track those green electrons as their energy consumption is on the way up… and it has to 24/7.Enter new innovative digital companies that are providing those complex and data-hungry services. Some platforms go even further, proposing to trade the green attributes of electrons. Renewabl is one of them.Lead by the charismatic JP Cerda, Renewabl is one of the most advanced of those startups. The company is the recent winner of the "2024 Energy Tech Challengers Award" in the FinTech categoryJP Cerda has a long history of trading green commodities, first at Shell and Orsted. Then a few years ago he managed to create Zeigo, the premier PPA auction platforms which he then successfully sold in 2022 to Schneider Electric. JP and his team really know what they are doing when it comes to designing and developing leading edge digital market places in the green sector.  We thank Amundi for supporting our show Disclosure: Laurent is an investor in Renewabl  A good article on the GoO market https://auroraer.com/media/guarantees-of-origin-market-set-for-growth-trajectory-projected-to-reach-3-7-bn-e-by-2030/  

This week, Gerard and Laurent have been invited to a private event organized by Aquila Capital in March 2024, during the Global Infrastructure Conference, where they debate with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila if “Renewables are still an Infrastructure play?”

The main hindrance to the development of renewables is the connection queue. Basically, grid operators tell developers “Sorry guys, we’re full”. A recent study by RMI has proven that this is simply not true. Grid operators are either too conservative or not incentivized to take more load. Old solutions. Old thinking.Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) are hardware and software solutions that are deployed within the existing transmission system, helping increase the capacity, flexibility, and efficiency of the current grid. They can perform functions such as rerouting power flows to avoid congested lines and providing data on real-time conditions that could enable more power to flow through a line when conditions allow — thus increasing our ability to best utilize the transmission infrastructure we already have.But beyond a better digital management, new technologies of cables are emerging, incorporating the best Material Science has to offer.  New conductor technologies could triple grid capacity with structures in the existing rights of way, while also reducing line loss by half.To talk about GETs and new conductors, we bring in Jason Huang, Co-founder and CEO of TS Conductor Corporation. Jason is PHD in material science and started his career in the aviation industry, working on civilian and military programs such as A350 and F35. TSConductor, supported by Breakthrough Ventures, NextEra and UK National Grid, is now rolling out a revolutionary new technology that will debottleneck the Grid and speed up the Energy Transition.  We thank our new partner AMUNDI, largest European Asset Manager and really committed to the Energy Transition   PS: 2nd minute - Laurent got “TO” wrong: it’s Topography Optimisation, not Technology OptimisationThe RMI report is here:https://rmi.org/insight/analyzing-gets-as-a-tool-for-increasing-interconnection-throughput-from-pjms-queue/The story about Amazon and AI is here https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/08/amazon-says-us-utility-can-complete-power-flow-studies-in-hours-not-months/      

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about the 3 big energy gatherings that happened this week. Houston (CERAweek), Bilbao (WindEurope) and Berlin (Global Infrastructure Summit). Laurent and Gerard were in Berlin and report what they saw and heard.In a simple sentence à la John Wick “Yes, I think I’m back”