127. Minutes: Live from Berlin – “Are Renewables still an Infrastructure Play” with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila Capital

We hear conflicting messages regarding the status of the EV market. On the bright side, IEA predicts 17mEV to be sold this year, EV and Hybrids reach 50% market share in China for Q1, more than 500 EV models are currently on the market. On the dark side, Tesla and BYD deliveries were down in Q1_24, Tesla revenues were down 9% compared to Q1_23 and the price war has cut the EPS in 2.Has Tesla lost its mojo or will Elon refocus and reboot. Lots of announcements, but also a 10% cut in the workforce, and a depressed share price. Meanwhile the “Oil Street Journal” and other publications have been repeating ad nauseum (but falsely) that the EV Story is over.In fact, EV sales in Q1 2024 were 21% higher than Q1 2023. China led the way with at 31% growth with the US and Canada at 13%, and EU and EFTA trailing behind at a 7%. Removal of the BEV subsidies in Germany showing their full impact there.There are also a lot of questions about protectionism, as Elon Musk just declared that “Chinese automakers would "demolish" most of the world's other car companies if there were no trade barriers. Our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world,"To discuss this and the future of the EV market, Laurent brought James Carter. James is a friend of the show and one of the top Auto experts in the world based in Toronto, Canada.And Gerard will be back with us next week. He was simply too busy successfully selling our German Rooftop Solar company Febesol to Thermondo. But that is a story for another day.The pod has just been named number 1 Energy Transition show. Thank you, guys. We love you all.--------PS: when referring to our friend Roger Atkins, Laurent said “Shanghai Auto Show”. Oooops its was Beijing Auto China from which he brings back wondrous stories, including a meeting with the legend Robin Zheng, CATL founder.  

Laurent and Gerard have a rapid overview of what’s going on regarding the Energy Transition in China and its political implication in the West.Record production of this, record production of that, overcapacity everywhere…We babble a lot, rant a bit, and conclude that we need to invite a real expert on the show.  

What is the value of green electrons? Hard to say. Depends where, depends when. What is sure is that, in view of recent regulations and corporate commitments, they must be tracked.From an annual basis, we are now moving to an hourly basis, under the thrust of corporate initiatives like the GhGProtocol, RE-100 and EnergyTag. Behind this movement, BigTech such as Microsoft and Google see a need to track those green electrons as their energy consumption is on the way up… and it has to 24/7.Enter new innovative digital companies that are providing those complex and data-hungry services. Some platforms go even further, proposing to trade the green attributes of electrons. Renewabl is one of them.Lead by the charismatic JP Cerda, Renewabl is one of the most advanced of those startups. The company is the recent winner of the "2024 Energy Tech Challengers Award" in the FinTech categoryJP Cerda has a long history of trading green commodities, first at Shell and Orsted. Then a few years ago he managed to create Zeigo, the premier PPA auction platforms which he then successfully sold in 2022 to Schneider Electric. JP and his team really know what they are doing when it comes to designing and developing leading edge digital market places in the green sector.  We thank Amundi for supporting our show Disclosure: Laurent is an investor in Renewabl  A good article on the GoO market https://auroraer.com/media/guarantees-of-origin-market-set-for-growth-trajectory-projected-to-reach-3-7-bn-e-by-2030/  

This week, Gerard and Laurent have been invited to a private event organized by Aquila Capital in March 2024, during the Global Infrastructure Conference, where they debate with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila if “Renewables are still an Infrastructure play?”

The main hindrance to the development of renewables is the connection queue. Basically, grid operators tell developers “Sorry guys, we’re full”. A recent study by RMI has proven that this is simply not true. Grid operators are either too conservative or not incentivized to take more load. Old solutions. Old thinking.Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) are hardware and software solutions that are deployed within the existing transmission system, helping increase the capacity, flexibility, and efficiency of the current grid. They can perform functions such as rerouting power flows to avoid congested lines and providing data on real-time conditions that could enable more power to flow through a line when conditions allow — thus increasing our ability to best utilize the transmission infrastructure we already have.But beyond a better digital management, new technologies of cables are emerging, incorporating the best Material Science has to offer.  New conductor technologies could triple grid capacity with structures in the existing rights of way, while also reducing line loss by half.To talk about GETs and new conductors, we bring in Jason Huang, Co-founder and CEO of TS Conductor Corporation. Jason is PHD in material science and started his career in the aviation industry, working on civilian and military programs such as A350 and F35. TSConductor, supported by Breakthrough Ventures, NextEra and UK National Grid, is now rolling out a revolutionary new technology that will debottleneck the Grid and speed up the Energy Transition.  We thank our new partner AMUNDI, largest European Asset Manager and really committed to the Energy Transition   PS: 2nd minute - Laurent got “TO” wrong: it’s Topography Optimisation, not Technology OptimisationThe RMI report is here:https://rmi.org/insight/analyzing-gets-as-a-tool-for-increasing-interconnection-throughput-from-pjms-queue/The story about Amazon and AI is here https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/08/amazon-says-us-utility-can-complete-power-flow-studies-in-hours-not-months/      

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about the 3 big energy gatherings that happened this week. Houston (CERAweek), Bilbao (WindEurope) and Berlin (Global Infrastructure Summit). Laurent and Gerard were in Berlin and report what they saw and heard.In a simple sentence à la John Wick “Yes, I think I’m back”  

“It’s hard to play a good game when you have been served weak cards”. This is the perennial challenge of Japan when it comes to the Energy Transition. And the game is getting harder when your two main choices, nuclear and hydrogen, are proving extremely costly in a world of cheap renewables.How robust is a business model based on a protected internal market with high margins and limited competition allowing Japan Inc. to expand abroad at super competitive prices, but stifling innovation and diversification? Japan is “Prisoner of its geography” (to quote Tim Marshall); thankfully its answer has been a world class level of engineering allowing to partially overcome its shortcomings.And Gerard, during his recent trip to Japan, has witnessed some extraordinary achievements in the energy transition in the downstream sector, with extreme energy efficiency, retail innovations, and digital developments.We have the pleasure to welcome Shuichiro Kawamura, who heads one of the rare investments’ funds focusing on the Energy Transition. Established in 2006, Energy & Environment Investment (EEI) is Japan's first VC firm solely dedicated to the energy and environment sectors. They support startups with innovative technologies and services in this space, aiming to drive sustainable growth and positive global impact. As of Q1_24, the AUM of EEI is around US$500MM, with more than 130 portfolio companies. There is no easy formula in Japan. Only the smarts will survive.We thank our friends and partners AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting our show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about Conferences / Exhibition that they recently attended and what they have learned there. Gerard was in Germany’s E-World while Laurent was in London’s Energy Storage Summit.And they act as mirror opposites: "back in business" in Germany while the storage in London realises that the Champagne year of 2022 cannot easily be repeated. The storage industry nevertheless rejoices at the fall in price of batteries while the classic Utilities are being challenged by new innovations such as “balcony solar”

The two limiting factors for a faster deployment of EVs are the price of vehicles and “range anxiety”. While the former is being addressed by an ever-growing number of cheaper models available on the market, the latter is also experiencing a revolution.You would believe that such an opportunity would be grasped by Utilities. Surprise! They didn’t move. Oil companies have started investing, but at their slow pace. In the Automotive sector, only Tesla has seized on the challenge, and how brilliantly! So, the passivity of incumbents has created an overture for talented and dynamic entrepreneurs. We have decided to invite one of them.Our guest is Toddington Harper, CEO of Gridserve, a leading UK charging network. Gerard, Laurent and Toddington discuss all recent developments in EV charging from technology to software to interoperability. We are going to talk about Electric Super Hubs, Electric Retail Hubs and the industry-leading Electric Forecourts®.In the coming years, the whole EV charging landscape will totally change and petrol stations will be looked at like we look at CDs and Cassette Tapes. At the heart of the revolution, focus on a consumer-centric approach and a new way of thinking holistically called “sun-to-wheel”. Charging is not a commodity, it’s a service, and only the best service providers will emerge as winners.We thank AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting the show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about three great reports that have recently been published and deliver some world-class data about past achievements, current status and the direction of travel. As a sign of things to come, European Carbon has lost 36% since the beginning of the year.We are here saluting Ember and their power/emission statistics – European Electricity review https://ember-climate.org/ https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2024/Then the new bible, from Nat Bullard, available here. Everything Climate and the Energy Transition in 200 slides. https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentationsAnd for the battery buffs, the encyclopaedia in everything batteries, which comes from the Volta Foundation https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report