Bolstered by sustained policy support for trade-in programs, China's consumption is likely to continue its robust growth momentum in the second half of the year, better underpinning the country's stable economic growth amid mounting external uncertainties, analysts said.
分析人士表示，在对以旧换新项目的持续政策支持的推动下，中国的消费可能会在今年下半年继续保持强劲的增长势头，在外部不确定性日益增加的情况下更好地支撑该国的稳定经济增长。
China still has ample fiscal headroom to reinforce its trade-in initiative later this year should consumer demand exhaust its initial 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) allocation, they said, emphasizing that similar policy incentives could be extended to the service sector to foster more sustainable consumption growth.
他们表示，如果消费者需求耗尽其最初的3000亿元人民币（420亿美元）的拨款，中国仍有充足的财政空间来加强其以旧换新计划，并强调类似的政策激励措施可以扩展到服务业，以促进更可持续的消费增长。
On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 11 ultra-long-term treasury bonds in the third quarter, with four of them seeing their timelines accelerated compared with the previous plan released in April. This will help maintain a continuous flow of funding to support policies meant to boost consumption, analysts said.
周二，财政部宣布在第三季度发行11只超长期国债，其中4只的发行时间比4月份发布的计划提前。分析人士表示，这将有助于保持持续的资金流动，以支持旨在促进消费的政策。
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, the third group of fiscal funding through ultra-long-term treasury bonds for the consumer goods trade-in program is scheduled to be allocated in July.
周二，财政部宣布在第三季度发行11只超长期国债，其中4只的发行时间比4月份发布的计划提前。分析人士表示，这将有助于保持持续的资金流动，以支持旨在促进消费的政策。
The central government has earmarked 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term treasury bonds to support the trade-in program for the whole year. The first two groups of fiscal funding, totaling 162 billion yuan, were allocated in January and April.
中央政府已指定3000亿元人民币的超长期国债，以支持全年的置换计划。前两批财政资金共计1620亿元，分别于1月和4月拨付。
"If the remaining 138 billion yuan runs out ahead of schedule, the possibility of unveiling additional funding this year cannot be ruled out," said Zhao Wei, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.
申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵表示：“如果剩余的1380亿元提前用完，今年不排除推出额外资金的可能性。”。
"As the trade war initiated by the United States still weighs on China's economy, efforts to shore up domestic demand will be of paramount importance to mitigate external shocks and maintain steady growth," he said.
他说：“由于美国发起的贸易战仍对中国经济造成压力，提振内需对于缓解外部冲击和保持稳定增长至关重要。”。
By avoiding a one-time, large-scale fund injection that could disrupt market dynamics, the phased allocation of the fiscal funds helps create a stable and supportive environment for the consumption recovery to take hold throughout the year, Zhao added.
赵补充道，通过避免可能扰乱市场动态的一次性大规模资金注入，财政资金的分阶段分配有助于为全年的消费复苏创造稳定和支持性的环境。
In late June, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, also pledged to leverage various tools in support of the trade-in programs, such as increasing credit support for recycling companies and home renovation suppliers and fast-track financing for manufacturers of energy-efficient smart home products.
6月下旬，中国央行中国人民银行还承诺利用各种工具支持以旧换新计划，例如增加对回收公司和家居装修供应商的信贷支持，以及为节能智能家居产品制造商提供快速融资。
"Boosted by the trade-in programs, sales of household appliances, furniture and communication devices have registered rapid growth. Sales related to trade-ins have surpassed 1.4 trillion yuan so far this year," said Li Chao, a spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission, when addressing a news conference on June 26.
国家发展和改革委员会发言人李超在6月26日的新闻发布会上表示：“在以旧换新计划的推动下，家用电器、家具和通信设备的销售额实现了快速增长。今年到目前为止，与以旧换旧相关的销售额已超过1.4万亿元。”。
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumer spending in May posted its strongest monthly growth since 2024, with retail sales of consumer goods expanding 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, a 1.3 percentage point increase from April.
根据国家统计局的数据，中国5月份的消费支出出现了2024年以来最强劲的月度增长，5月份消费品零售额同比增长6.4%，比4月份增长1.3个百分点。
Experts cautioned that although the trade-in policies have been effective in driving sales of consumers goods, they also carry the risk of front-loading consumer demand, which could create challenges down the line.
专家警告称，尽管以旧换新政策有效地推动了消费品的销售，但它们也带来了提前满足消费者需求的风险，这可能会在未来带来挑战。
"Providing similar consumption incentives to promote service sector spending could become a key policy lever going forward," said Jiang Zhao, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
中国国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员江赵表示：“提供类似的消费激励措施来促进服务业支出，可能会成为未来的一个关键政策杠杆。”。
Jiang noted that development patterns in advanced economies indicate that upon entering high-income status, nations typically experience a gradual rise in the proportion of service consumption. As China approaches this threshold, its consumption structure is transitioning from being focused on goods to being focused on both goods and services, he said.
江指出，发达经济体的发展模式表明，进入高收入国家后，服务消费的比例通常会逐渐上升。他说，随着中国接近这一门槛，其消费结构正在从以商品为重点转变为以商品和服务为重点。
Nevertheless, service consumption spans diverse sectors such as elderly care, tourism, fitness and healthcare, implying that subsidy programs would demand substantial fiscal funding and pose significant oversight challenges, Jiang said, adding that any decision to implement such incentives would require prudent assessment based on practical conditions.
然而，江表示，服务消费涵盖了养老、旅游、健身和医疗保健等多个领域，这意味着补贴计划将需要大量的财政资金，并带来重大的监管挑战。他补充说，任何实施此类激励措施的决定都需要根据实际情况进行审慎评估。
fast-track financing
n.快速融资
consumption structure
n.消费结构
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