Revision Chickens Come Home to Roost

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important.  As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.

This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday’s shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the search for a new Fed Governor, and how this all sets the stage for a chaotic lead-up to Jackson Hole. It’s a week without major data releases, but the calm may not last.

We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?! This week on The Rate Guy, we’re unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond. Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.  

On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.