The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down

On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen.  For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter.  And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out www.FireJamesFranklin.com

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important.  As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.

This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday’s shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a rate cut in September, what to watch for in the search for a new Fed Governor, and how this all sets the stage for a chaotic lead-up to Jackson Hole. It’s a week without major data releases, but the calm may not last.

We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?! This week on The Rate Guy, we’re unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond. Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.