Season 6, Episode 7: Google's Gambit and the future of the open web

In this episode of the podcast, I speak with Andrew Lipsman, an independent analyst in the retail media space and the author of Media, Ads + Commerce. Andrew and I discuss the prospects for -- and the futility of -- agentic commerce. Among other things, our conversation covers:The definition of 'agentic commerce'The 'fundamental flaws' in agentic commerce from a conceptual and commercial standpointWhether independent agents can capably fulfill commercial transactions if platforms like Amazon and Shopify block themWhether open web advertising is a useful analog for agentic commerceWhether agentic commerce is fundamentally at odds with consumers' interestsAmazon's own implementations of commercial agentsThanks to the sponsor of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

In this episode of the podcast, I examine Google's Gambit: its effort to transition Search from a distribution intermediary to an engagement sink. Google's AI Overviews and AI Mode products seek to retain users in the Search experience, rather than forwarding them to external destinations. Many publishers claim that their inbound traffic from Google Search has plummeted, with expectations that this traffic will eventually decline to zero.I've described Google's ambitions with AI Overviews and AI Mode as Google's Gambit: an attempt to utterly reform the core Search experience through AI functionality while not alienating users. In this episode, I unpack Google's motivations behind this gambit and attempt to outline its broader impact on the open web. I also consider this product strategy within the broader context of consumer engagement shifting from web-based content to LLM-empowered chatbots.

In this episode of the podcast, I speak with Itai Kafri on the topic of signal engineering. Itai is the Head of Product Growth at Voyantis and previously held senior roles at TikTok and ironSource. I've defined signal engineering as "the process of designing and capturing high-quality outcome proxies (eg., pLTV) so they can be reported back to ad platforms in real time such that those platforms optimize campaign targeting for them." Given the rise of platform-integrated automation, signal engineering is an emerging and increasingly critical tactic in digital marketing.In my conversation with Itai, we consider:The purpose and goal of signal engineering.How platform automation (eg., ASC, PMax) has intensified the value of signal engineering.Whether signal engineering is best accomplished using existing events or by experimenting with new, purpose-built events.Who within the organization is best positioned to manage the signal engineering experimentation process.What a team should aim to proxy with signal engineering.The different approaches that various types of advertisers take with signal engineering, eg., mobile games vs. ecomm vs. subscription apps.The commonalities that exist amongst the companies that have seen the most commercial success with signal engineering.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.The Mobile Dev Memo podcast is available on:Apple PodcastsSpotify

In this episode of the podcast, I speak with Chris Hewish, the President of Xsolla, a payments and merchandising platform for video games. Chris previously held senior roles at Skydance, DreamWorks, and Activision.In our discussion, Chris and I discuss the recent changes to mobile platform payment policy implemented by both Apple and Google as a result of Epic's lawsuits. Among other topics, our conversation covers:The history of off-platform payments on mobile.How interest in off-platform payments has changed as a result of Apple's recent App Store policy updates.The types of products for which off-platform transactions convert best.The "trust premium" that a developer must possess to implement off-platform payments successfully.The most common mistakes developers make with off-platform payments.How conversion rates tend to change with off-platform payments relative to native payments.The best practices for off-platform storefront management.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

In this week's episode of the MDM podcast, I speak with Adam Epstein, the CEO of Gigi, an AI-enabled automation tool for the Amazon DSP. Following Amazon's announcement in June of identity partnerships with both Roku and Disney (which I cover in Amazon is CTV’s data engine), Adam and I focus our conversation on Amazon's strategic positioning with its advertising business across Amazon Prime Video, sponsored on-site advertising, and the Amazon DSP. Among other topics, we discuss:An overview of the partnerships that Amazon announced with Roku and Disney at CannesWhy Amazon's dataset is a natural fit for CTV, and whether its audience data alone can be a principal driver of growth in that marketHow Amazon's AI-enabled automation products, Brand+ and Performance+, differ from those offered by Meta and GoogleWhether Amazon is fundamentally supply-constrainedThe ecosystem of advertising-focused AI toolsThe non-obvious ways that Amazon is approaching growth in non-endemic advertisingMisconceptions related to Amazon's advertising business?Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

In this week's episode of the podcast, I am joined by Ari Paparo, whose new book, Yield, is currently on pre-sale (see my review here). Yield follows Google's growth in the "open web display market", starting with its acquisition of DoubleClick and ending with the company being found guilty of abusing its monopoly power in the "ad tech" antitrust suit brought against it by the Department of Justice.But Yield also documents the history of modern digital advertising, from the advent of the advertising exchange to cookie targeting to yield management. The book provides a fascinating and engaging chronology of the events that shaped the internet economy, anchored to the characters that participated in them.In this episode, among other things, Ari and I discuss:The atmosphere in early 2000s-era New York as programmatic advertising took shapeHow and why Facebook's business model diverged from Google'sThe flaws in the open web advertising business model and whether the current state of the open web was pre-ordainedAdditionally, we discuss Ari's current venture, Marketecture, which is hosting its next event, Marketecture Live, in New York in October. I'll be presenting a keynote at the event, and tickets are currently available for purchase.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.The Mobile Dev Memo podcast is available on:Apple PodcastsSpotify

In this week's episode, I speak with David Barnard, a well-known independent app developer, the host of the Sub Club podcast, and the Growth Advocate at RevenueCat. This is the fourth installment of the MDM Mailbag series, where questions for guests are sourced from the Mobile Dev Memo community.Among other things, we discuss:The viability of link-out following Apple's policy change and how developers are integrating it;How independent app developers can build sustainable businesses;Retention strategies for subscription apps;When developers should utilize subscription monetization versus other forms.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

In this week's episode of the podcast, I speak with Thomas Petit, a well-known mobile growth consultant, for the third installment of the MDM Mailbag series. Questions for MDM Mailbag episodes are sourced from the MDM community; in this episode, among other things, we discuss:The evolution of app-to-web user acquisition following Apple's recent policy change in the US;Optimizing Meta ad campaigns;The best platforms for non-gaming app user acquisition;Different approaches to creative testing;The future of ASO.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.

In this episode of the podcast, I argue that the total automation of digital advertising through AI enablement presents a radically economically expansive opportunity that, while certainly disruptive for certain segments of the digital advertising ecosystem, will ultimately confer significant benefits on consumers, advertisers, and advertising platforms alike.I term the complete, end-to-end automation of digital advertising Commerce at the limit: it represents not just the utmost optimization of advertisers' campaigns, but also the introduction of every business that could potentially derive value from it to the digital advertising economy. Commerce at the limit captures the maximum theoretical scale of advertising's impact of the economy: the AI-empowered apogee of digital commerce.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user’s real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.Resources cited in this podcast:What comes next after Facebook’s VO campaign strategy? (Mobile Dev Memo)Understanding Google’s Universal App Campaign (UAC) changes (Mobile Dev Memo)Understanding conversion optimization in digital advertising (Mobile Dev Memo)“Black box” ad optimization and satisficer’s remorse (Mobile Dev Memo)The inflationary impact of AI-generated ad creative (Mobile Dev Memo)Ad Spend Forecast To Grow By 4.9% In 2025, Despite A Reduced Economic Outlook (Dentsu)Measuring the digital economy (IAB)The Rise of Digital Advertising and Its Economic Implications (St. Louis Fed) 2024 digital ad spend and video strategy report (IAB)What will it take for CTV ad spend to overtake linear? (The Drum)Digital Video Is Set to Capture Nearly 60% of All TV/Video Ad Spend in 2025, CTV Rebounds to Double-Digit Growth in 2024, According to IAB (IAB)‘You Will’: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Digital AdvertisingThe Expansion of Varieties in the New Age of AdvertisingTargeted Advertising, Market Structure, and Consumer WelfareEstimating the Value of Offsite Data to Advertisers on MetaEvaluating the Impact of Privacy Regulation on E-Commerce Firms: Evidence from Apple's App Tracking TransparencyThe App Tracking Transparency recession (Mobile Dev Memo)Mobile Gaming in 2023: Still Cooling Down After a Red-Hot Run, the $107B Category Wasn’t Without Success Stories (Sensor Tower)

In this episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast, I speak with returning guest Mikołaj Barczentewicz on the current state of DMA enforcement, including the recently-released text of the European Commission's April decision on Meta's Pay or Okay business model. Mikołaj returns to the podcast for his fourth appearance — he’s a professor of law at the University of Surrey and holds a PhD in Law from the University of Oxford. He also regularly publishes insightful commentary on the EU regulatory landscape on his blog, EU Tech Reg.Among other things, we episode covers:An overview of the EC’s April decision related to Meta’s Pay or Okay model;What the EC says about the economic impact of DMA enforcement with its decision; The changes that Meta made to its business model in the EU after the EC and EDPB published their preliminary guidance on its Pay-or-Okay model; How this decision impacts other so-called gatekeepers; The knock-on economic implications of this decision;The latest developments in EU AI regulation.Thanks to the sponsors of this week’s episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast:INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on.⁠⁠⁠Clarisights⁠⁠⁠. Marketing analytics that makes it easy to get answers, iterate fast, and show the impact of your work. Go to⁠⁠⁠ clarisights.com/demo⁠⁠⁠ to try it out for free.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.