The Election Risks Markets Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 28

Go to HedgeyeAM.com for more info.With the midterms just weeks away, the battle for Congress is getting tighter—and the market implications are growing.On the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright welcome Hedgeye Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor to break down the races, voter trends and policy risks that could shape Washington after Election Day. Taylor walks through the most competitive House and Senate contests, the growing importance of independent voters, and why he watches prediction markets alongside traditional polling. The conversation also tackles potential October surprises, Iran, energy prices, defense spending and what different election outcomes could mean for governing—and markets—in 2027. With control of Congress potentially coming down to a handful of races, this is a timely roadmap to what matters most over the final stretch. JT Taylor is Hedgeye’s Chief Political Strategist and Sector Head of Macro Policy, with prior experience as a congressional chief of staff, senior aide to Jack Kemp, President and CEO of Empower America, and an executive at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.00:00 – Midterms, Markets & the Stakes for Congress02:25 – Why the House Map Is Moving Toward Democrats07:45 – The Key House Races to Watch16:30 – Can Democrats Really Flip the Senate?21:00 – Ohio, Kansas, Texas & the Senate Wild Cards26:15 – Could Fetterman Become the Senate’s Swing Vote?31:00 – Trump’s Approval Rating & the 2006 Midterm Parallel34:10 – October Surprises: Iran, Markets & Energy Prices38:45 – Why Independent Voters Could Decide the Election54:20 – What the Midterms Could Mean for Defense SpendingGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

00:00 – Meet George Noble: Four Decades in the Markets 03:50 – How Markets Changed: From Fundamentals to Financialization 07:30 – The Hidden Problem With Private Equity & Private Credit 14:20 – What Rising Cost of Capital Could Break Next 16:40 – Why Insurance Could Be the Next Big Risk 20:00 – Gold, Deficits & the Coming Liquidity Problem 24:00 – Are “Uncorrelated” Assets Really Diversified? 29:20 – Bitcoin, Speculation & the Gambling Mentality 33:00 – Why Markets Eventually Punish Bad Policy 41:00 – Lessons From Peter Lynch & the Return of Fundamental InvestingWhat happens when decades of cheap money collide with a rising cost of capital?On the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright welcome veteran investor George Noble for a wide-ranging conversation on private equity, private credit, AI, interest rates and where financial stress may be hiding beneath the surface. Noble argues that years of artificially cheap capital have distorted markets—and that the consequences may only now be starting to emerge.Noble brings more than four decades of investing experience, including managing Fidelity’s first international fund and later billion-dollar hedge funds. He is also the author and publisher of The Noble ReportFrom AI financing and insurance risk to gold, speculation and lessons learned from Peter Lynch, this episode challenges some of today’s most popular market assumptions.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info00:00 – A Strange Market Near All-Time Highs05:20 – Market Rotation, Narrowing Breadth & Investor Positioning07:30 – Why Oil Is Driving Everything Right Now13:50 – When High Energy Prices Become Demand Destruction17:30 – Software vs. Semiconductors: The Momentum Battle23:10 – Can Software and Semis Rally Together?28:10 – The AI Safety Narrative & Push for Regulation34:00 – Are AI Expectations Getting Ahead of Reality?39:20 – Meta, Apple & the Search for AI’s Killer App49:00 – Deficits, Data Centers & the Coming Fight for CapitalThe market may be sitting near all-time highs, but underneath the surface, things are getting a lot more complicated.On the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent and Sam Rahman dig into deteriorating market breadth, $100+ oil, rising borrowing costs and the growing strain higher energy prices could put on consumers and economic growth. They also break down the shifting battle between software and semiconductors, asking which parts of the AI trade can keep working as momentum changes.Then the conversation turns to the next phase of AI: regulation, real-world applications, Apple and Meta’s consumer advantage, and whether today’s massive data-center buildout is creating tomorrow’s winners—or simply repeating some familiar mistakes from the dot-com era.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

**This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on September 15, 2026***Artificial Intelligence is the biggest story in markets. It’s also creating some of the biggest risks.Longtime Hedgeye Nation fan favorite and hedge fund manager Mike Taylor joins Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a new Real Conversation.They’ll tackle the elephant in the room: the growing AI bubble and the various risks building beneath the surface.Expect a candid discussion on where the boom is most vulnerable, what investors may be underestimating and where the best risks and opportunities are taking shape.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info00:00 – Markets Return With Oil, Rates & Quad 2 in Focus06:00 – The Weak Dollar Tug-of-War12:30 – Midterms, Politics & the Coming Defense Spending Boom15:00 – Iran, the Red Sea & the Growing Oil Supply Risk23:00 – Why Modern Warfare Is Becoming More Expensive28:30 – Can Policymakers Keep Markets Going Through the Midterms?33:20 – Russia, Ukraine & a New Threat to Global Energy38:00 – Could Higher Rates Break the AI Boom?45:45 – The AI Price War: Who Actually Makes Money?53:15 – AI Bubble or Next Internet? Finding the Real WinnersWhat happens when rising oil prices, a weakening dollar, geopolitical escalation and an increasingly crowded AI boom all collide at once?In the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and Neil Howe unpack a market being pulled in several directions at the same time. The panel debates whether tightening energy supplies and expanding global conflicts could reignite inflation and reshape the economic regime heading into the midterms.Then they turn to AI, where massive infrastructure spending, aggressive price competition and sky-high expectations are raising a harder question: even if AI changes everything, who actually makes the money? From OpenAI and Anthropic to Apple, Snowflake and Databricks, the group digs into where the real winners - and risks - may be hiding.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

**This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on August, 26, 2026**Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.Debt keeps climbing. The dollar keeps falling and losing purchasing power. Most portfolios still aren't built for what comes next.Join us for a new Real Conversation between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media, founder of Battle Bank and Sprott's largest individual shareholder.With the national debt eclipsing $40 trillion, 42% of income tax revenue now going toward interest and the Federal Reserve struggling to control the long end of the curve, Rick believes dollar debasement is no longer a forecast. It's the base case.Keith and Rick will break down the math of America and what it means for gold, silver, uranium, oil and mining equities that many investors still overlook.Expect decades of hard-won investing discipline distilled into plain terms: buy what's hated, wait for the setup and let patience do the work. Rick will share what he owns, where he's adding and why the biggest risk most investors face sits between their own two ears.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and their guest Jerry Jordan unpack a market increasingly driven by flows, leverage, momentum and corporate buybacks—and what that means for investors trying to separate underlying fundamentals from price action. They discuss the hidden weakness beneath top-heavy indices, record valuations and margins, and the danger of putting peak multiples on peak earnings.The group also debates the outlook for energy and commodities, inflation, Treasury intervention and a weaker U.S. dollar before diving into the economics of the AI boom: hyperscaler CapEx, Anthropic and OpenAI, model commoditization, and whether the enormous investment cycle can generate sustainable returns.Finally, Jerry lays out the contrarian theme he believes the market is still underpricing: hard assets. His central call is that continued dollar weakness and eventual policy support for the bond market could create an environment where gold outperforms the stock market over the next three to five years.Timecode Markers00:00 – Introducing Jerry Jordan05:17 – Why Market Flows Matter More Than Ever10:01 – “Price Is 99 of 100 Factors”13:24 – The Hidden Carnage Beneath a Top-Heavy Market16:05 – When Cutting Equity Exposure Makes Sense20:02 – The Danger of Peak Multiples on Peak Earnings21:54 – The Bull Case for Energy & Commodities25:49 – A Different Way to Think About Inflation27:49 – Treasury Intervention, the Dollar & Hard Assets29:44 – Could AI Economics Prick the Equity Bubble?31:19 – The Bull Case for Anthropic & AI Profitability35:02 – Is AI Becoming a Utility Business?37:48 – Why AI Models Could Become Commodities45:59 – What the Market Is Mispricing47:03 – Why Gold Could Outperform Stocks50:30 – What Breaks With a 7% 10-Year Yield?51:30 – Private Equity, Insurance & Hidden Systemic RiskGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and David Salem reunite for a wide-ranging market roundtable built around David’s “five follies” framework. With U.S. markets near all-time highs and the domestic setup still broadly bullish, the group debates the risks investors may be underestimating beneath the surface.Topics include the Iran conflict, energy positioning, resource nationalism, global supply-chain fragility, dollar weakness, Fed credibility and the limits of trying to control inflation with blunt tools. The conversation then shifts to AI, where the team digs into open versus closed models, hyperscaler CapEx, cloud economics, compute capacity, security risks and whether today’s spending boom will earn returns above its rising cost of capital. It’s a thoughtful look at markets, geopolitics and technology through a risk-first lens00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:17 Markets Near Highs & the Bullish U.S. Setup 02:58 David Salem’s “Five Follies” Framework 08:46 Energy Positioning & the Iran Conflict 11:06 Resource Wars, Hormuz & the Red Sea 17:24 Dollar Weakness, Allies & a Fragmenting World Order 24:26 The Fed, Inflation & the Limits of Control 29:07 Treasury Intervention, Japan & the Yen Carry Trade 36:59 Open vs. Closed AI Models 38:36 Hyperscaler CapEx, Cloud Economics & Compute Risk 51:55 Cybersecurity, Cost of Capital & AI FollyGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On Friday afternoon, after US equity markets closed, the United States government bought Japanese yen for the first time in twenty-eight years.And every explanation we've seen from the mainstream media looks like fish floundering. So Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough called the money doctor. Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins has spent forty years watching governments try to outsmart currency markets, and he does not grade on a curve."Not only the analysts, but the financial press just have Japan completely wrong, and they've had it wrong for a long time." — Steve HankeIn a new (hopefully) regular segment, Keith and Steve discuss the topics that Wall Street and its media are missing - or getting dead wrong.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information00:00 — Welcome to Protect the Pile01:01 — Meet Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets02:43 — 20 years in markets at 31: Nick's origin story06:11 — The open letter to Secretary Bessent11:43 — GFC flashback: no adults in the room16:22 — "Loans are bad the day you write them"20:41 — The AI CapEx problem: who actually builds the data centers?30:16 — Small caps and the experience-economy trade39:36 — Bank shots: Vertiv, Quanta, and letting winners run44:36 — The insurance time bomb: bigger than 2008? Twenty years in the markets at just 31, no college degree, and a Substack that climbed to 18,000 followers on the back of one open letter to the Treasury. This week on Protect the Pile, Patrick Kent flies solo with Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets — the self-taught generalist sounding the alarm on the leverage buried inside private credit and the life insurance industry. They dig into why he thinks the next crisis could dwarf 2008, why AI CapEx can't keep compounding at 20%, and how "functionally fake" wealth is propping up housing and credit. Along the way: hunting overlooked small caps, the experience-economy trade, and the bank-shot winners most investors missed. A no-nonsense conversation about where the real risk — and the real opportunity — is hiding. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.