Software vs. Semis: The Next Battle in AI | Protect the Pile Episode 26

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info00:00 – A Strange Market Near All-Time Highs05:20 – Market Rotation, Narrowing Breadth & Investor Positioning07:30 – Why Oil Is Driving Everything Right Now13:50 – When High Energy Prices Become Demand Destruction17:30 – Software vs. Semiconductors: The Momentum Battle23:10 – Can Software and Semis Rally Together?28:10 – The AI Safety Narrative & Push for Regulation34:00 – Are AI Expectations Getting Ahead of Reality?39:20 – Meta, Apple & the Search for AI’s Killer App49:00 – Deficits, Data Centers & the Coming Fight for CapitalThe market may be sitting near all-time highs, but underneath the surface, things are getting a lot more complicated.On the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent and Sam Rahman dig into deteriorating market breadth, $100+ oil, rising borrowing costs and the growing strain higher energy prices could put on consumers and economic growth. They also break down the shifting battle between software and semiconductors, asking which parts of the AI trade can keep working as momentum changes.Then the conversation turns to the next phase of AI: regulation, real-world applications, Apple and Meta’s consumer advantage, and whether today’s massive data-center buildout is creating tomorrow’s winners—or simply repeating some familiar mistakes from the dot-com era.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

**This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on September 15, 2026***Artificial Intelligence is the biggest story in markets. It’s also creating some of the biggest risks.Longtime Hedgeye Nation fan favorite and hedge fund manager Mike Taylor joins Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a new Real Conversation.They’ll tackle the elephant in the room: the growing AI bubble and the various risks building beneath the surface.Expect a candid discussion on where the boom is most vulnerable, what investors may be underestimating and where the best risks and opportunities are taking shape.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info00:00 – Markets Return With Oil, Rates & Quad 2 in Focus06:00 – The Weak Dollar Tug-of-War12:30 – Midterms, Politics & the Coming Defense Spending Boom15:00 – Iran, the Red Sea & the Growing Oil Supply Risk23:00 – Why Modern Warfare Is Becoming More Expensive28:30 – Can Policymakers Keep Markets Going Through the Midterms?33:20 – Russia, Ukraine & a New Threat to Global Energy38:00 – Could Higher Rates Break the AI Boom?45:45 – The AI Price War: Who Actually Makes Money?53:15 – AI Bubble or Next Internet? Finding the Real WinnersWhat happens when rising oil prices, a weakening dollar, geopolitical escalation and an increasingly crowded AI boom all collide at once?In the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and Neil Howe unpack a market being pulled in several directions at the same time. The panel debates whether tightening energy supplies and expanding global conflicts could reignite inflation and reshape the economic regime heading into the midterms.Then they turn to AI, where massive infrastructure spending, aggressive price competition and sky-high expectations are raising a harder question: even if AI changes everything, who actually makes the money? From OpenAI and Anthropic to Apple, Snowflake and Databricks, the group digs into where the real winners - and risks - may be hiding.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

**This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on August, 26, 2026**Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.Debt keeps climbing. The dollar keeps falling and losing purchasing power. Most portfolios still aren't built for what comes next.Join us for a new Real Conversation between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media, founder of Battle Bank and Sprott's largest individual shareholder.With the national debt eclipsing $40 trillion, 42% of income tax revenue now going toward interest and the Federal Reserve struggling to control the long end of the curve, Rick believes dollar debasement is no longer a forecast. It's the base case.Keith and Rick will break down the math of America and what it means for gold, silver, uranium, oil and mining equities that many investors still overlook.Expect decades of hard-won investing discipline distilled into plain terms: buy what's hated, wait for the setup and let patience do the work. Rick will share what he owns, where he's adding and why the biggest risk most investors face sits between their own two ears.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and their guest Jerry Jordan unpack a market increasingly driven by flows, leverage, momentum and corporate buybacks—and what that means for investors trying to separate underlying fundamentals from price action. They discuss the hidden weakness beneath top-heavy indices, record valuations and margins, and the danger of putting peak multiples on peak earnings.The group also debates the outlook for energy and commodities, inflation, Treasury intervention and a weaker U.S. dollar before diving into the economics of the AI boom: hyperscaler CapEx, Anthropic and OpenAI, model commoditization, and whether the enormous investment cycle can generate sustainable returns.Finally, Jerry lays out the contrarian theme he believes the market is still underpricing: hard assets. His central call is that continued dollar weakness and eventual policy support for the bond market could create an environment where gold outperforms the stock market over the next three to five years.Timecode Markers00:00 – Introducing Jerry Jordan05:17 – Why Market Flows Matter More Than Ever10:01 – “Price Is 99 of 100 Factors”13:24 – The Hidden Carnage Beneath a Top-Heavy Market16:05 – When Cutting Equity Exposure Makes Sense20:02 – The Danger of Peak Multiples on Peak Earnings21:54 – The Bull Case for Energy & Commodities25:49 – A Different Way to Think About Inflation27:49 – Treasury Intervention, the Dollar & Hard Assets29:44 – Could AI Economics Prick the Equity Bubble?31:19 – The Bull Case for Anthropic & AI Profitability35:02 – Is AI Becoming a Utility Business?37:48 – Why AI Models Could Become Commodities45:59 – What the Market Is Mispricing47:03 – Why Gold Could Outperform Stocks50:30 – What Breaks With a 7% 10-Year Yield?51:30 – Private Equity, Insurance & Hidden Systemic RiskGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and David Salem reunite for a wide-ranging market roundtable built around David’s “five follies” framework. With U.S. markets near all-time highs and the domestic setup still broadly bullish, the group debates the risks investors may be underestimating beneath the surface.Topics include the Iran conflict, energy positioning, resource nationalism, global supply-chain fragility, dollar weakness, Fed credibility and the limits of trying to control inflation with blunt tools. The conversation then shifts to AI, where the team digs into open versus closed models, hyperscaler CapEx, cloud economics, compute capacity, security risks and whether today’s spending boom will earn returns above its rising cost of capital. It’s a thoughtful look at markets, geopolitics and technology through a risk-first lens00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:17 Markets Near Highs & the Bullish U.S. Setup 02:58 David Salem’s “Five Follies” Framework 08:46 Energy Positioning & the Iran Conflict 11:06 Resource Wars, Hormuz & the Red Sea 17:24 Dollar Weakness, Allies & a Fragmenting World Order 24:26 The Fed, Inflation & the Limits of Control 29:07 Treasury Intervention, Japan & the Yen Carry Trade 36:59 Open vs. Closed AI Models 38:36 Hyperscaler CapEx, Cloud Economics & Compute Risk 51:55 Cybersecurity, Cost of Capital & AI FollyGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

On Friday afternoon, after US equity markets closed, the United States government bought Japanese yen for the first time in twenty-eight years.And every explanation we've seen from the mainstream media looks like fish floundering. So Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough called the money doctor. Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins has spent forty years watching governments try to outsmart currency markets, and he does not grade on a curve."Not only the analysts, but the financial press just have Japan completely wrong, and they've had it wrong for a long time." — Steve HankeIn a new (hopefully) regular segment, Keith and Steve discuss the topics that Wall Street and its media are missing - or getting dead wrong.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information00:00 — Welcome to Protect the Pile01:01 — Meet Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets02:43 — 20 years in markets at 31: Nick's origin story06:11 — The open letter to Secretary Bessent11:43 — GFC flashback: no adults in the room16:22 — "Loans are bad the day you write them"20:41 — The AI CapEx problem: who actually builds the data centers?30:16 — Small caps and the experience-economy trade39:36 — Bank shots: Vertiv, Quanta, and letting winners run44:36 — The insurance time bomb: bigger than 2008? Twenty years in the markets at just 31, no college degree, and a Substack that climbed to 18,000 followers on the back of one open letter to the Treasury. This week on Protect the Pile, Patrick Kent flies solo with Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets — the self-taught generalist sounding the alarm on the leverage buried inside private credit and the life insurance industry. They dig into why he thinks the next crisis could dwarf 2008, why AI CapEx can't keep compounding at 20%, and how "functionally fake" wealth is propping up housing and credit. Along the way: hunting overlooked small caps, the experience-economy trade, and the bank-shot winners most investors missed. A no-nonsense conversation about where the real risk — and the real opportunity — is hiding. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile with Danielle DiMartino Booth02:01 The Fed’s “Punched in the Mouth” Moment04:34 Kevin Warsh, Fed Independence & the Next Market Test06:12 Commercial Real Estate, Credit Risk & 2026–2027 Maturities08:03 The Fed’s Ambiguous Mandate10:21 Is the Fed Fighting the Wrong Inflation War?14:29 Can Kevin Warsh Actually Change the Fed?18:15 The New “Too Big to Fail” Problem23:25 Fixing the Fed’s Broken Data Problem31:35 Real-Time Inflation Data & the Fed’s Framework40:18 AI, Accounting Games & the Integrity of Earnings47:06 The Fed Chair Who Got It RightOn this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright break down a summer market that keeps defying the noise. With the S&P 500 up double digits, small caps suddenly outperforming and the Mag 7 barely positive on the year, the group debates whether the market’s leadership is truly broadening or just rotating through crowded trades.They dig into early earnings season signals from banks, healthcare, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, including the warning sign of stocks failing to rally on strong numbers. The conversation also tackles global dollar liquidity, Korea’s leverage unwind, Meta’s AI strategy, hyperscaler spending, model commoditization and whether AI’s real value will show up in applications rather than raw compute. It’s a timely check-in on what’s working, what’s crowded and what could crack next.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on July 22, 2026***The age of frictionless globalization is over. Investors are now operating in a world where geopolitical conflict, national security policy, supply-chain control and technology leadership can move markets as much as earnings, rates or inflation. For decades, investors benefited from a world shaped by globalization, open supply chains, low-friction trade and the steady expansion of market-cap weighted benchmarks.  That world is giving way to something more complex. Geopolitical conflict, strategic competition, supply-chain vulnerability, technology leadership and national security policy are now direct inputs into the investment process. Hedgeye Founder and CEO Keith McCullough will host a new Real Conversation with John O’Connor, Chairman and CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management. The discussion will focus on how investors should think about geostrategic risk in today’s market environment. Keith and John will examine why yesterday’s benchmark construction may not fully account for today’s risks, how geopolitical exposure can show up inside major public companies and why critical technologies are becoming a central battleground for capital, policy and national security. Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.