2023 Cybersecurity Predictions

Technically proficient people often face challenges when looking for (or being elevated to) leadership roles.In the cyber realm, this can become even murkier. We have hackers, who often view rules as guideposts (or even challenges, for that matter); incident responders and threat intelligence officers who tend to have great regard for rules and a well-developed (if not regimented) approach to unraveling mysteries; and product engineers who are astute at design and technical issue resolution.The net is this: Cyber brainiacs are really good at solving problems. And less good at inspiring (or even allowing) others to solve them.In this episode, host Mitch Mayne talks with Brian Donovan, author of "Leadership Is Changing the Game - The Transition from Technical Expert to Leader." They explore some of the critical components of cyber leadership—including Donovan’s perspective that the trick isn’t to develop an entirely new skill set—or superpower, as he puts it—but to hone your existing superpower and learn how to influence and inspire.If you’ve ever wondered how to get out of your own way and transition into cyber leadership, this may be the episode for you.Take a listen—and venture Into the Breach.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 01:20] Introduction[03:05 - 05:34] Mitchs' journey to leadership in the cyber world[06:07 - 07:42] Challenges technically smart people might run into when stepping into a leadership role[08:24 - 12:43] Turning your strengths into superpowers in leadership[18:09 - 20:50] Imposter syndrome within cyber leadership[29:02 - 31:10] What Brian learned from his best manager[32:20 - 34:49] Advice to be a great leader in cyber

Quantum computing relies on quantum physics for computational power and computes much faster than classical computers. It’s predicted to provide major breakthroughs across society, science and business. At the same time, it poses a risk to key cryptographic algorithms we depend upon for the safety of our digital world. Meaning, it has the potential to render existing communications as insecure as if they weren’t encoded at all.In this episode, host Mitch Mayne talks with one of the scientists working on quantum-safe encryption algorithms. Dr. Walid Rjaibi has spent considerable time experimenting with these algorithms and creating prototypes for transitioning current software to quantum-safe standards. They talk in-depth about the security risk quantum poses, how researchers are addressing that risk, how policy can (or should) shift to make standardization a reality, and what organizations might struggle with as they shift toward quantum—and how some of those struggles might be addressed.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 01:34] Introduction[03:55 - 06:05] An overview of quantum computing[06:45 - 11:30] Cyber risks associated with quantum[15:03 - 18:42] Algorithms that are quantum-safe[19:09 - 21:54] Encryption algorithms, RSA deep dive[25:18 - 26:15] Effective policy regulations[26:42 - 29:30] Where to begin when learning about quantum

It’s been eight years since the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act was signed into law, and today we have a thriving network of public/private threat sharing groups—like the Joint Cyber Defense Counsel (JCDC) and National Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity ISAO (NAIC/ISAO), offering platforms where member organizations can both share threat information and gain access to the larger collection.Yet, perception challenges still exist for threat sharing groups. These include both liability and confidentiality concerns, with some organizations wondering if information shared in a group could be traced back to—and used against—the organization that shared the data in the first place.In this episode, host Mitch Mayne talks with Michael Thiessmeier, Co-founder and Executive Director of the NAIC/ISAO, about the history of threat sharing and how the “public good” has benefitted. They also explore the perceived hurdles to entering threat sharing groups and explore whether or not those are legitimate concerns.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 01:41] Introduction[03:23 - 05:54] Notable wins as a result of groups sharing intelligence[06:19 - 07:23] What information to consider sharing in an information-sharing group[11:00 - 14:03] Has trust been restored that the government does the right thing in terms of privacy and surveillance?[20:09 - 21:23] Michaels information products[22:15 - 23:20] Why threat sharing is important

Late last year, a well-known ride share app and a gaming company were hacked using well-crafted social engineering attacks. Stephanie Caruthers—known online as “Snow,’ is a professional hacker herself and has a solid working theory on how the attacks happened. Stephanie’s take: the criminal may have purchased already stolen credentials of users off the dark web, used that data to research the target victims, and then combine those sources of information to engineer highly targeted attacks.Which raises the question: Is your information out on the dark web, and how can it be used by a criminal?Let’s find out. Join us as we venture, Into the Breach.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 01:36] Introduction[01:55 - 02:30] The genesis of online name Snow[05:42 - 06:41] Spearfishing vs. social engineering[07:21 - 08:21] What Snow knows about Uber and Rockstar hacks[08:45 - 10:37] Snow's thoughts on TeaPot purchasing credentials from the dark web for who they were targeting[11:04 - 12:20] What Snow looks for to find information from a social media perspective[19:37 - 22:43] Advice on how to avoid being attacked[21:00 - 22:43] How the attacks happened[23:38 - 24:38] For the average citizen: What to do or not to do

Attacks on Operational Technology (OT) and Industrial Control Systems (ICS) grabbed the headlines more often in 2022—a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparking a growing willingness on behalf of criminals to target the ICS of critical infrastructure.Conversations about what could happen if these kinds of systems were compromised were once relegated to “what ifs” and disaster movie scripts. But those days are behind us, and the threats to OT and ICS are real and ongoing.Roya Gordon and her team at Nozomi Networks keep a close eye on these kinds of threats, and recently released their biannual OT/IoT Security Report that examines what’s happened in the landscape for this sector in the latter half of 2022.She joins me in this episode to talk in-depth about what her team found—including the latest on the types of attacks hitting OT and IoT, what effect increased regulation may have on industries in this sector, how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to change the landscape, and what may be on the horizon for cyber insurance. And maybe most importantly, she helps us understand what OT/IoT organizations can do to stay safer.Join us—and together we’ll venture Into the Breach.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 00:44] Introduction[01:00 - 02:50] Important pieces from Nozomi's security report[03:23 - 05:21] Threat actors Roya sees at Nozomi[06:16 - 08:10] Roya explains being anti-cyber insurance[11:40 - 15:21] Sector-specific plans: What do we know and are they needed?[16:19 - 17:21] International efforts for a safer sector[20:45 - 23:06] Advice for loT and OT friends

Every year, the IBM Security X-Force team of cyber experts mine billions of data points to reveal today's biggest attack trends and patterns. In this episode, host Mitch Mayne is joined by Michael Worley, one of this year’s primary authors, and digs into the guts of the X-Force Threat Intelligence Index 2023 to uncover the continuously changing cybersecurity landscape and understand how to defend against the latest threats. Join us as we journey into 2023 — and Into the Breach.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 00:35] Introduction[01:04 - 03:17] What changes were made to the X-Force Threat Intelligence Index for 2023[03:48 - 04:37] How Michael's background shaped how he examined data for this years report[05:00 - 06:04] The biggest aha moment from this year's report[11:10 - 13:39] Phishing and other vulnerabilities[15:20 - 16:30] Steps to to take to protect yourself

In this episode, we’ll use 2022 as a lens to foretell what this year may have in store for us. Joining me is Dan Lohrmann, a well-known voice in cybersecurity whose resume boasts an impressive list of positions in cyber leadership in both the public and private sector, in addition to authorship of three books on cybersecurity. Dan publishes an annual review of top cyber organization predictions (check out Part One and Part Two). Think of them like a content analysis of over two dozen industry leading reports. Among those surveyed is the 2022 IBM Security X-Force Threat Intelligence Index and our annual predictions blog published just last month. And of course, I’d miss the chance to humble-brag if I didn’t tease the fact that we’ll be releasing our 2023 Threat Intelligence Index in early February, too, so stay tuned for that one.   Given the hours he’s devoted to analyzing the market predictions, Dan’s view is both broad and deep. We’re going to utilize his expertise to focus on a few hot topics for 2023: ·       Ransomware: How it will evolve, and who may be targeted·       Social engineering: How increased sophistication (including attempts to bypass MFA) may impact business·       Cyber insurance: Will it become more difficult to get in 2023·       The Ukraine war: What fallout we might expect this year·       Crypto and social media: Given the tumult in 2022, what we might see changing both on a market and a policy front Join us, and together we’ll venture Into the Breach.Things to listen for:[00:05 - 01:17] Introduction[07:21 - 08:58] What we got right in 2022[09:52 - 12:29] What we might see for ransomware in 2023[13:50 - 16:33] What we might see in terms of social engineering, and what will be the role of deep fakes?[17:37 - 19:55] Insurance providers in 2023[25:06 - 26:08] Changes in crypto, and will there be a push to regulate?[29:07 - 30:17] Potential positives to look for in 2023

Attacks on operational technology (OT)--gas pipelines, electrical grids, banking services—are on the rise. In this episode, we speak with Chris Kubecka about how these incidents can affect economies and public safety in every geography, and how we might defend against them. Chris is the Chair of the Cyber Program at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and has brought Operational Technology safety front and center across the globe. She details how these incidents can be a serious breach affecting economies around the world.Key Takeaways:00:06 - 01:07 Intro to episode01:40 - 03:17 The Middle East Institute04:34 - 05:22 The difference between information technology and operational technology11:39 - 13:08 Motives behind attacks13:20 - 14:33 How we should think about operational technology security, that we aren't considering today14:33 - 17:26 Do we need the government in order to follow cybersecurity safeguards?18:47 - 19:57 Ideal state for operational technology security20:26 - 24:38 Chris shares a recent, and very interesting experience25:42 - 27:38 What keeps Chris awake at night when it comes to operational technology

Cryptocurrency has become the favored tender for ransomware groups. Because of the intricacies of blockchain technology, it is often difficult for law enforcement to trace criminals who demand cryptocurrency payments. But is there a way to regulate cryptocurrency in a way that provides fewer hiding places for criminals—but doesn’t disrupt the market? We speak with Megan Stifel, Policy Officer at the Global Cyber Alliance, who as part of the Ransomware Task Force, issued the recommendation to closely regulate cryptocurrency—but still preserve the market.Key Takeaways:00:08 - 01:15 Intro to the episode01:37 - 03:00 How easy is it for threat actors to hide funds and cover their trail?05:28 - 08:14 The scale and scope of ransomware12:00 - 14:25 Regulation that allows the market for investors to remain but also helps locate criminal actors15:04 - 17:06 Blacklisting: Target known accounts or try to regulate the entire market?17:33 - 19:16 Are sanctions effective, and why is it being used? How will it work?19:57 - 24:48 Cryptocurrency mixing services

When there is a cyber incident, the focus is often the technical side of the attack and remediation. Another important aspect of breach management—communication—often takes a back seat. When communication is done badly, consumers can lose trust, brands can erode, and corporate names can become synonymous with high-profile attacks. Loren Dealy Mahler has built a career on creating organization-wide communication plans, and talks about the importance of having the right people using the right words at the right time.Key Takeaways:00:05 - 01:18 Intro to episode01:32 - 03:06 Advice to a CEO on how to handle a data breach from a communication perspective03:36 - 07:06 Crisis response plan vs a cyber communication plan08:19 - 11:55 Missteps in communication: The Atlanta cyber attack in 201811:55 - 16:08 Missteps in communication: The Equifax breach17:30 - 19:58 An example of communication gone well22:52 - 24:12 What can we expect to see a new cybersecurity executive order do to communication?