Will Trump’s Pressure on Canada Break the USMCA?

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar are joined by State of Play host, Will Todman, to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America. Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026. Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025. Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025.

On July 1, the United States, Mexico, and Canada sat down to decide the future of their trade agreement. Mexico and Canada said yes, but the United States said no to the agreement at least in its current form. The agreement didn't end that day, but instead triggered a cycle of annual reviews that could run for the next 10 years. In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with Juan Carlos Baker, resident fellow with the Georgetown Americas Institute and one of the architects of the original USMCA. Together, they discuss the future of trilateral trade, recent U.S. tariff announcements, and the prospects of reaching an interim agreement before the end of the year.

In this episode of 35 West, guest host Juliana Rubio, associate director of the CSIS Americas Program, is joined by Sergio Guzmán, co-founder and director of Colombia Risk Analysis, to discuss Colombia’s 2026 presidential election and the transition ahead. They examine Abelardo de la Espriella’s narrow victory over Iván Cepeda and what the result reveals about Colombia’s polarized political landscape. The conversation also explores De la Espriella’s hardline security platform, the future of the 2016 peace agreement, concerns from civil society, the economic agenda facing the incoming administration, and how a new government in Bogotá could reshape relations with Washington, Venezuela, and the region.

In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar is joined by William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, and Scott Miller, senior mentor of CSIS’ Executive Education. Together, following the July 1, 2026, USMCA review deadline, they discuss the U.S. decision not to renew and the future of the USMCA.

This episode initially aired on June 12, 2025. Following a recent CSIS Americas conference on U.S.-Canada security cooperation, this issue remains an important priority in the bilateral defense relationship. As a NATO and NORAD member, Canada plays a crucial role in North American continental defense. With the United States now pursuing an expanded continental missile defense posture dubbed the Golden Dome, the Canada-U.S. relationship may be entering a new phase. While the Golden Dome could prove beneficial in advancing Canada’s security strategy, it remains unclear what Canada’s involvement would actually look like, how much protection it would receive under the Golden Dome, and to what extent President Trump’s annexation rhetoric will undermine the Canadian public’s willingness to entertain the missile defense initiative. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Phillippe Lagassé, Associate Professor with the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. Together they discuss Canada's historical position on continental missile defense, changes to the threat landscape faced by Canada, and how the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney is approaching defense modernization priorities. They also discuss the effect of ongoing U.S.-Canada tensions on the likelihood that Canada will move forward with participation in the Golden Dome.

Mexico, the United States, and Canada are hosting the 2026 World Cup, and it isn’t clear whether that or the ongoing negotiations over the USMCA free trade agreement is higher stakes for North America. The July 1 deadline for the three North American countries will shape the future of nearly 2 trillion in trade and determine whether the countries renew the agreement for another 16 years or let the clock run down towards expiration in 2036. The stakes are real and the story is more complex than it has ever been with a trade deal.   In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business. Together, they unpack the dynamics of the review, and the different negotiation strategies employed by the three countries. They also evaluate some of the most likely scenarios for the review, ranging from the potential risk of withdrawal to a surprise agreement that emerges in the fall of 2026.

In this episode of 35 West, Associate Director Juliana Rubio sits down with Gabriel Cifuentes, co-founder of Greystone Consulting Group, to discuss Colombia’s upcoming May 31 presidential election. The conversation examines how Colombia’s election reflects a fragmented political landscape and a deeper debate over the future direction of the country. Rubio and Cifuentes discuss the main candidates shaping the race, the durability of President Gustavo Petro’s political project, and the growing divide between those calling for continuity and those seeking a sharper break from the current government. They also analyze how security has reemerged as a central campaign issue, particularly amid criticism of “Total Peace,” the persistence of armed groups, and the appeal of harder-line approaches to public order. The episode also explores the economic and governance challenges the next administration will inherit, including fiscal pressures, weak private investment, energy policy, and strained public services. Rubio and Cifuentes close with a discussion of U.S.-Colombia relations, Colombia’s role in the region, and the resilience of democratic institutions at a moment when polarization and populist politics are reshaping electoral debates across Latin America.

On April 12, Peruvians took to the polls to vote in the first round of elections that would decide the country’s next president. Some hoped the elections would help usher in an end to the country’s long running political crisis where no president has served out a full term since 2016. However, delays and complications in counting the votes, and fraud allegations leveled by some candidates turned the April election into its own miniature crisis. In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Mitra Taj, a freelance reporter based in Lima to unpack the results of the first round of voting. Together they explore the key figures and power brokers heading into the runoff, as well as how the two candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, will likely approach key issues of economic development, security policy, and relations with Congress. They also explore the significance of the elections for ongoing U.S.-China competition in South America.

The character and temperament of a leader can have a major impact on both the quality of governance, as well as the health and stability of democratic systems. But how exactly this manifests, as well as what the risk factors are for determining whether an elected leader might attempt a power grab while in office remain opaque, complicating the ability of voters and analysts alike to make actionable assessments of presidential personalities. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Ignacio Arana Araya, an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University and author of the book Presidential Personalities and Constitutional Power Grabs in Latin America, 1945-2021. Together, they discuss common trends in presidential power grabs, risk factors, and how institutions can guard against these. They also analyze contemporary dynamics in Latin America, including moves by El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele to extend his tenure in office.

Since massive anti-government protests in Nicaragua in 2018, and a subsequent brutal government crackdown, President Daniel Ortega and his Co-President spouse, Rosario Murillo, have progressively consolidated power through systematic repression of political opposition, civil society, independent media, and religious actors. A report published March 10 by the United Nations Group of Human Rights Experts on Nicaragua provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of these patterns of repression and their evolution, including serious, systematic and widespread human rights violations, some amounting to crimes against humanity. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Jan-Michael Simon, Chair of the United Nations Group of Human Rights Experts on Nicaragua and a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law. Together, they discuss the Ortega-Murillo regime's repressive apparatus within Nicaragua, as well as its international reach. They also analyze the role of the international community, and multilateral bodies like the UN and Organization of American states in continuing to raise awareness of conditions within Nicaragua, and advocating for justice for victims of the regime.