Battle for Brazil: The First-Round Election Results Explained

On October 4, Brazilians cast their votes in what is shaping up to be one of the most contentious and polarized elections in recent history. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, securing 47 percent of the vote to Lula’s 45 percent. As the two candidates prepare for a runoff on October 25, corruption scandals, economic pressures, and competing policy visions are shaping the campaign. Meanwhile, conservative gains in Congress have reshaped the broader Brazilian political landscape, raising questions about how either candidate would govern and build legislative support. To unpack these developments, Henry Ziemer sits down with Pedro Siemsen Giestas, a research analyst at Greenmantle and editor of Pindograma. Together they examine the factors behind Bolsonaro’s strong first-round performance, the political fallout from corruption allegations, and the issues and strategies likely to shape the final stretch of the campaign. 

Paraguay is often overlooked in South America, but it is beginning to occupy a more visible place in regional economic and geopolitical conversations. With a growing economy, clean energy resources, and longstanding diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the country is trying to position itself for a new stage of development—one that goes beyond commodities and turns growth into broader opportunities for Paraguayans. In this episode of 35 West, Associate Director Juliana Rubio sits down with Esteban Caballero, a political scientist and researcher at FLACSO Paraguay, to discuss Paraguay’s economic trajectory, the structural challenges that still shape its development, and the role international partners can play. They also examine how Paraguay’s relationship with Taiwan fits into a wider geopolitical context involving the United States and China.

As the United States places renewed emphasis on the Western Hemisphere, development finance is emerging as an important instrument of economic statecraft. Following Congress’s 2025 reauthorization and revitalization of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the agency is positioned to play an expanded role in mobilizing private capital, strengthening economic partnerships, and supporting strategic investments across the region. In this episode, Caroline Vik, Chief Policy Officer at the DFC, discusses the agency's evolving mission, investment opportunities across the Western Hemisphere, and the challenges shaping economic development and growth throughout the region.

In February 2025, the State Department designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) as part of a broader push from the Trump administration taking aim at organized crime in the Western Hemisphere. While U.S. rhetoric has continually stressed the threat posed by Mexican cartels, an overlooked component in this narrative is the fact that U.S. guns comprise the overwhelming majority of cartel arsenals. Still, the use of FTO designations opens new avenues for prosecuting firearms traffickers, most notably through the use of material support for terrorism charges. In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Jake Steisel, Senior Staff Attorney at Global Action on Gun Violence. Together, they analyze trends in U.S. firearms trafficking dynamics, as well as the legal implications of recent FTO designations and recent indictments of suspected gun traffickers. They also discuss the steps the United States and Mexico can take together to curb the supply of weapons to cartels. 

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar are joined by State of Play host, Will Todman, to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America. Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026. Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025. Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025.

On July 1, the United States, Mexico, and Canada sat down to decide the future of their trade agreement. Mexico and Canada said yes, but the United States said no to the agreement at least in its current form. The agreement didn't end that day, but instead triggered a cycle of annual reviews that could run for the next 10 years. In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with Juan Carlos Baker, resident fellow with the Georgetown Americas Institute and one of the architects of the original USMCA. Together, they discuss the future of trilateral trade, recent U.S. tariff announcements, and the prospects of reaching an interim agreement before the end of the year.

In this episode of 35 West, guest host Juliana Rubio, associate director of the CSIS Americas Program, is joined by Sergio Guzmán, co-founder and director of Colombia Risk Analysis, to discuss Colombia’s 2026 presidential election and the transition ahead. They examine Abelardo de la Espriella’s narrow victory over Iván Cepeda and what the result reveals about Colombia’s polarized political landscape. The conversation also explores De la Espriella’s hardline security platform, the future of the 2016 peace agreement, concerns from civil society, the economic agenda facing the incoming administration, and how a new government in Bogotá could reshape relations with Washington, Venezuela, and the region.

In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar is joined by William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, and Scott Miller, senior mentor of CSIS’ Executive Education. Together, following the July 1, 2026, USMCA review deadline, they discuss the U.S. decision not to renew and the future of the USMCA.

This episode initially aired on June 12, 2025. Following a recent CSIS Americas conference on U.S.-Canada security cooperation, this issue remains an important priority in the bilateral defense relationship. As a NATO and NORAD member, Canada plays a crucial role in North American continental defense. With the United States now pursuing an expanded continental missile defense posture dubbed the Golden Dome, the Canada-U.S. relationship may be entering a new phase. While the Golden Dome could prove beneficial in advancing Canada’s security strategy, it remains unclear what Canada’s involvement would actually look like, how much protection it would receive under the Golden Dome, and to what extent President Trump’s annexation rhetoric will undermine the Canadian public’s willingness to entertain the missile defense initiative. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Phillippe Lagassé, Associate Professor with the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. Together they discuss Canada's historical position on continental missile defense, changes to the threat landscape faced by Canada, and how the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney is approaching defense modernization priorities. They also discuss the effect of ongoing U.S.-Canada tensions on the likelihood that Canada will move forward with participation in the Golden Dome.

Mexico, the United States, and Canada are hosting the 2026 World Cup, and it isn’t clear whether that or the ongoing negotiations over the USMCA free trade agreement is higher stakes for North America. The July 1 deadline for the three North American countries will shape the future of nearly 2 trillion in trade and determine whether the countries renew the agreement for another 16 years or let the clock run down towards expiration in 2036. The stakes are real and the story is more complex than it has ever been with a trade deal.   In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business. Together, they unpack the dynamics of the review, and the different negotiation strategies employed by the three countries. They also evaluate some of the most likely scenarios for the review, ranging from the potential risk of withdrawal to a surprise agreement that emerges in the fall of 2026.