The Risk of Confrontation in Venezuela Rises Yet Further

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we look at the results of the recent presidential elections in Bolivia and the challenges ahead for president-elect Rodrigo Paz.Can this pragmatic leader respond creatively to tests including, a contracting economy, the current decline in the MAS party, the revisitation of diplomatic ties between the country and the United States, the Lithium question and regional relationships. In a far-reaching conversation with  Martín Mendoza-Botelho, Professor of Political Science at Eastern Connecticut State University, we discuss Bolivia's immediate needs and how for the first time in a long time, the Paz presidency is one of pragmatism over ideology, for now. Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

Why is there a build-up of the US armed forces in the southern Caribbean? According to Dr. Evan Ellis, Latin America Research Professor and General Douglas Macarthur Research Chair at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, our guest on The LatinNews Podcast this week, this is about putting an end to a significant strategic threat to U.S. interests that are threatening the core of things that President Trump said he was going to defend, issues of migration and issues of drugs. For the Venezuelan people, the importance of restoring Venezuelan democracy, and it’s likely that Venezuelans have never had a better opportunity than Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado to reunite a deeply divided country. How can this regime change take place? The sense is that the way that the current administration is looking at this challenge is that it's more through the lens of a threat that is generating harm against the United States. Drugs are the first little piece of that, but it's about those harms more than about democracy. Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

Newly re-elected President Irfaan Ali will have to move fast on promises to convert his country's sizable oil income into tangible benefits for Guyana's poor, beyond huge prestige infrastructure projects. If President Ali is unable to capitalize and create a coherent development plan and enable a reorientation of Guyana's economy, there will be cause for concern, not least from Azruddin Mohamed, leader of the new WIN (the recently formed, We Invest in Nationhood party) who pulled in 25 per cent of the vote in the general election. Guyana’s offshore oil fields, discovered by ExxonMobil in 2015, have transformed the country into a burgeoning energy powerhouse. The country, which is estimated to have the world’s highest crude oil reserves per capita, has been one of the fastest growing economies globally since oil production began in 2019 and yet the wealth disparity is starkly evident. This week on The LatinNews Podcast, we welcome back Anand Persaud, Editor-in-chief of Stabroek News, to discuss the challenges facing President Ali and Guyana including, the Dutch Disease, massive infrastructure expenditure, the on-going dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo, the US military build-up in the southern Caribbean and climate change. Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we look at how criminal organizations offer basic order and security in Latin America and how decades of authorities resorting to repressive strategies in order to address underlying social problems have provided fertile platforms for criminal shadow governments. Misguided state policies have shown that political questions have to change and there is now the need to rethink how to deal with the engines powering criminal governance in the region. We discuss how mass incarceration and repression strengthens the criminal groups it aims to constrain. We are joined by Benjamin Lessing, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of the forthcoming book: "Criminal Leviathans: How Gangs Govern from Behind Bars." Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

Following the historic defeat of the MAS in the first round of presidential elections in August 2025, Bolivians are left with two options to vote for, both to the right of centre. Former president Jorge Quiroga will face Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira in a run-off set to take place on 19 October 2025. On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we take a look at the results of the first round and explore some of the reason for the total collapse of the MAS party, we discuss the legacy of former president Evo Morales, who ruled Bolivia from 2006-2019, and his current predicament in Chapare. And what of the potential winner? Whoever wins in October will be faced with Bolivia's precarious economic situation, legal and political disorders and the always unpredictable subnational elections in 2026. Our guest this week is Dr Angus McNelly, lecturer in International Development at Kings College London and author of: " Now We Are in Power: The Politics of Passive Revolution in 21st Century Bolivia." Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

In one of his final acts as president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador pushed through a contentious judicial reform. López Obrador celebrated the overhaul of the judiciary as a necessity and an important legacy of his government.A primary concern is that the reform weakens judicial independence, reducing checks and balances on the government. There are fears the election process could be open to political influence, reducing the judiciary’s autonomy from government and strengthening the Morena party's dominance. There are also concerns that organized crime groups could interfere in the election of judges, threatening access to justice for victims and further inflating impunity levels.On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we speak to Julio Ríos-Figueroa, Associate Professor at the Department of Law at ITAM in Mexico City. His research focuses on comparative judicial politics, the rule of law, and empirical legal studies with a focus on the Latin American region.Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

Threats of political violence and a deteriorating security situation are raising concerns as Colombia approaches its presidential elections in May 2026, while tensions with the United States have also increased. Security challenges are expected to weigh heavily on the upcoming electoral period.This week on The LatinNews Podcast, host Richard McColl speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Analyst for the Andes Region at International Crisis Group, who explains the factors behind the current situation in Colombia and offers recommendations for the months ahead.Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

Under President Santiago Peña, Paraguay is enjoying economic stability, the fastest growth in Latin America, the lowest debt to GDP ratio in the region, a stable currency and the award of investment grade status for the first time ever. And, while this is impressive and cause for celebration, analysts are asking what the Paraguayan government is doing to combat corruption? On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we speak to Andrew Nickson, Honorary Reader in Public Management and Latin American Studies at the University of Birmingham and ask about Peña's successes and his shortcomings over the first two years of his government, and what we can predict for the remaining three years. Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

President Noboa’s victory in Ecuador seems to have owed a huge amount to his sweeping crackdown on organised crime, which has seen the military permanently mobilised against gangs. Insecurity is repeatedly identified as voters’ main concern. Can Noboa deliver? It's clear that Noboa stands and falls on security and voters gave him the benefit of the doubt that he needed more time and that his rival González would be too soft on crime. But, he has to deliver on this as well as addressing an increasingly fraught situation due to massive energy outages, the state of economy and keeping the all-important indigenous voters onside. On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we hear from Walter Spurrier in Guayaquil. Spurrier is the president of Grupo Spurrier, a columnist for the Diario El Universo newspaper, and the director of the political economic publication Analisis Semanal or Weekly Analysis.  Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

The biggest threat to Peru's efforts to further tap into its vast copper ore reserves is the growing number of informal and illegal mining activities. Conflicts between property owners and concession holders have become a critical issue, and the Peruvian government is striving to find a balance. Peru's rich copper and gold ore reserves have attracted hundreds of thousands of small-scale miners, most of whom operate in areas where they do not own mining rights. It is estimated that 40 per cent of Peru's gold exports come from informal mines.Many use a temporary registration process called  REINFO, which allows them to operate while going through the formal process. The program is set to expire at the end of 2025, but the industry generally opposes it, arguing that these licenses serve as a cover for illegal activities.On The LatinNews Podcast this week, we discuss the complexities shrouding Peru's mining industry and what the government is and isn't doing to correct it with special guest Dr John Crabtree, research associate at the Latin American Centre at the University of Oxford, associate of the Politics Department at Brookes University in Oxford, and region head for Latin America at Oxford Analytica Ltd.Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.