Opinion Polls

One week after the US elections, Donald Trump has claimed victory, securing the presidency, the Senate, and almost certainly – though not yet confirmed – the House of Representatives as well. This sweeping win over Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party has ignited widespread discussion: what went wrong for the Democrats, and what lies ahead for both parties?In this episode, we examine these key questions with our expert guests, exploring what this election outcome could mean for US policy on critical issues, including climate change, trade, democracy, and America’s relations with Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. With so much at stake, there’s already intense debate about the direction the country – and indeed, the world – may take in the coming years.To shed light on these issues we are joined by:Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the UCL Centre on US Politics (CUSP).Dr Julie Norman, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations and CUSP’s Foreign Policy Lead.Both Dr Gift and Dr Norman bring deep expertise in US politics and policy, offering insights into where things stand, what to expect from the new administration, and the potential global implications. Together, they help to unpack the complexities of these developments and consider what the future might hold.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

In recent years, policing in England and Wales has appeared to be trapped in a cycle of crisis. From high-profile scandals to criticisms of operational standards, concerns about the police’s role and conduct have intensified. Perhaps most shockingly, a serving police officer was convicted of the murder of Sarah Everard, a tragedy that underscored the urgent need for accountability within the force.A subsequent review by Baroness Louise Casey highlighted deep-seated issues within the Metropolitan Police Service, pointing to "institutional racism, sexism, and homophobia" within the organization. Meanwhile, there’s a growing perception that the police have deprioritized certain types of crime, like shoplifting. Political figures, too, have weighed in, accusing the police of double standards in their approach to protests and civil unrest.All of this has contributed to a significant decline in public trust. So, what exactly are the root issues? What realistic solutions could address these complex problems? And how might the current political climate impact the feasibility of any reforms?To explore these pressing questions, we are joined by three experts in crime and policing:Ben Bradford – Professor of Global City Policing in the Department of Security and Crime Science at University College LondonJonathan Jackson – Professor of Research Methodology in the Department of Methodology at the London School of EconomicsEmmeline Taylor – Professor of Criminology in the School of Policy and Global Affairs at City, University of LondonTogether, Ben, Jon, and Emmeline have edited a new special issue of The Political Quarterly titled Policing the Permacrisis, which dives into these challenges and potential solutions. Regular listeners might recall that The Political Quarterly shares our goal of making cutting-edge political and policy research accessible to a broad audience beyond academia. This episode marks the second installment in our occasional series where we discuss insightful work published in the journal. Mentioned in this episode:Policing the Permacrisis, in The Political Quarterly  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

There have been longstanding calls for reparations to address the profound injustices of colonialism and compensate for the vast extraction of resources from colonized nations. However, with few recent exceptions, these demands for reparations have largely been ignored by the former colonial powers. So, what comes next?Over the past two decades, renewed interest in colonial reparations has emerged within political theory and philosophy, with a focus on assigning responsibility for redress. Yet, relatively little attention has been given to how redress might be achieved in the face of persistent colonial amnesia and apologia. In this episode Dr. Shuk Ying Chan, Assistant Professor in Political Theory at UCL Political Science, proposes a solution: expropriation (the unilateral public takeover of foreign assets) as a justified response to these overdue reparations.In her argument, she shifts the focus from simply determining responsibility for reparative justice to exploring what victims of past injustices, or their descendants, are justified in doing to claim what they are owed. She also addresses the unique challenges of pursuing such political resistance at the global level.Mentioned in this episode:Chan, S.Y. (20024) Expropriation as Reparation. American Journal of Political Science.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

The state of public services is a pressing issue both in the UK and globally. News headlines are frequently dominated by stories of chronic failures and acute crises. In response, politicians often propose solutions involving more targets, tighter rules, and increased oversight. When confronted with challenges, their instinct is often to exert more control.A new book challenges this approach, suggesting that such responses may (at least in some cases) be counterproductive. It argues that bureaucrats can often perform at their best when they are trusted with greater autonomy, encouraged to develop and apply their own expertise, and supported in collaborating with colleagues toward a shared mission. Despite this, the book acknowledges that managing for empowerment comes with significant challenges.The book, Mission Driven Bureaucrats, is written by Dr. Dan Honig, Associate Professor of Public Policy in the UCL Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy, who joins us on the podcast today. Mentioned in this episode:Mission Driven Bureaucrats. Empowering People To Help Government Do Better, by Dan honig  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

In a turbulent political summer, few surprises were greater than that caused by French president Emmanuel Macron’s decision in June to call early parliamentary elections. Macron’s party had just been trounced in the European Parliament elections; and victory for the far right seemed likely. In the end, thanks to some last minute deals, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally did not win. Rather, it was an alliance of the left that secured most seats in the National Assembly. France’s Socialist Party was regularly in power from the early 1980s till the mid 2010s. But it collapsed spectacularly in the elections of 2017, and its very survival today seems in doubt. So what has been going on? And have the recent elections brought any signs of revival?Joining us to explore these questions is Philippe Marlière, Professor of French and European Politics in the UCL European and International Social and Political Studies department.This episode of UCL Uncovering Politics is the first in an occasional series of episodes based on pieces in Political Quarterly.Mentioned in this episode:Marlière, P. (2024), French Social Democracy in Turmoil. The Political Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13442  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

In this episode, host Dr Emily McTernan is joined by Professor Cathy Elliot from UCL’s Department of Political Science to explore the politics of hope in the face of the climate crisis and the role of outdoor learning in cultivating that hope. Amidst growing climate anxiety, especially among younger generations, Prof. Elliot offers a hopeful perspective on how educators can inspire action without falling into despair.This episode delves into the emotional landscape of politics and education, challenging the assumption that critical thinking and emotional engagement are at odds. They discuss the nature of hope, its importance in driving social and political change, and the emotional balance between hope and anger. They also explore the benefits of outdoor learning in higher education, where students engage with nature and develop a more profound sense of purpose and agency in addressing environmental issues. Prof. Elliot shares insights from her own outdoor teaching practices and provides tips for incorporating nature into the classroom to foster hope and resilience in students. Mentioned in this episode:Cathy Elliott, 'Chapter 6: Hope in the Garden: Outdoor learning as politics', in Outdoor Learning in Higher Education. Educating Beyond the Seminar Room. Edited By Wendy Garnham, Paolo Oprandi  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Age appears to structure voting patterns in democracies around the world more today than ever before. One poll conducted before the UK’s recent general election found that just 4% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote Conservative, compared to 33% of those aged 65 or older. Big age divides are evident on the European continent as well, though not always exhibiting such a clear left–right pattern, with the far-right Alternative for Germany and the National Rally in France gaining noteworthy support from the young. So what explains such divisions between the old and the young when it comes to voting? To what extent are these divisions underpinned by differences in voters’ ideological preferences? And how have these differences changed over time? A new article by Tom O’Grady, Associate Professor in Political Science here at the UCL Political Science, explores exactly these questions.Mentioned in this episode:Tom O'Grady. 'Is ideological polarisation by age group growing in Europe?' European Journal of Political Research.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

The late great sociologist and political scientist Charles Tilly said that ‘war made the state and the state made war’. Fighting and winning wars was, he argued, a crucial part of the story of how modern states built their bureaucratic capacity and their ability to do all the things that we want states to do. But this so-called ‘bellicist’ account of the origins of state capacity – seeing the modern state as rooted in war – does not go unchallenged. In particular, some critics see it as unduly Euro-centric and that it just doesn't work outside of Europe. We are joined by Dr Luis Schenoni, who has just been promoted to Associate Professor in International Relations here at the UCL Department of Political Science and who is also Director of our Security Studies Programme. In his new book, due out in July this year, Luis challenges that alternative perspective. He argues that, even in Latin America, the bellicist theory – if properly understood – does a remarkably good job in explaining outcomes.  Mentioned in this episode:Luis Schenoni. Bringing War Back In. Victory, Defeat, and the State in Nineteenth-Century Latin America.    UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

Action to address climate change is essential. But the effects of such action are often imbalanced: the benefits are diffuse and long-term, while the losses are often frontloaded and concentrated amongst certain communities. That imposes two kinds of challenge:- the idea that some people, such as workers in fossil fuel industries, might face higher costs than the rest of us seems unfair.- voters are rarely willing to accept short-term harms in return for future benefits that seem distant and uncertain.A solution to these problems may lie in compensating those who face heightened costs, for example by retraining workers in affected industries. But would these schemes overcome the political hurdles to implementing the needed long-term policies? In a world of deep distrust in political leaders, can voters be persuaded that so-called ‘just transition’ policies really will be fair?We are joined this week by Dr Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy here in the UCL Department of Political Science and Dr Diane Bolet, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Political Behaviour in the Department of Government, University of Essex. Mentioned in this episode:How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a ‘Just Transition Agreement’ on Spanish Election Results.   American Political Science Review.No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The Norm We Need. Science. View the article without a paywall.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.

In the run up to the UK General Election we have a secial episode on opinion polls. Opinion polling is a staple of modern elections, captivating political enthusiasts with fluctuating numbers but also sparking controversy. Polls are sometimes criticized for inaccuracies, notably in the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election. Polling methods, including sampling and voter prediction, are hotly debated. The emergence of MRP polls, which accurately estimated results in the 2017 UK election, has added to the intrigue, despite producing widely varying predictions for the outcome of the current UK election. So what should we make of the polls? And how can we best interpret all the numbers to understand what’s really going on?Our guest is Prof Ben Lauderdale. Ben is Professor of Political Science here at UCL, a former Senior Data Science Advisor to the polling firm YouGov, the original brain behind the development of MRP methods and general polling guru.  UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.