ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry’s most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It’s not about being contrarian - it’s about being clear-eyed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together19:05 - Getting the allocation right21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro26:55 - Public vs private markets29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically31:15 - How their allocation is...

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?06:44 - Industry performance update12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA42:30...

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Anna on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong03:57 - The current state of Fed06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense28:59 - The outlook of the housing market31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level...

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing.And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?06:26 - Industry performance update13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition17:18 - Insights on carbon markets21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system47:27 - More diversified = more risk?49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?57:50 - Is trend...

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your...

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:50 - Catching up05:02 - Industry performance update13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performanceCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the...

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management36:56 - It's all in the EUAs40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management45:39 - Wrapping upCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?07:10 - Industry performance update09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it16:33 - The drivers of spread23:26 - Breaking markets into factors26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?36:47 - Key insights into FX trading44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers50:23 - The real process of an allocator56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy01:01:35 - You should just go play...

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?26:58 - Powell - in or out?31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots46:55 -...

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity14:23 - Industry performance update19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry01:02:00 -...