Lawfare Daily: How China Might Coerce Taiwan

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Tyler McBrien, and Daniel Byman to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Borderline Behavior.” A major flare-up over the disputed region of Kashmir took place this past week, leading to a major exchange of hostilities between the nuclear powers of India and Pakistan before they agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire—one that is mostly holding, despite alleged violations on both sides. How durable a resolution does this seem likely to be? And what additional steps need to be taken to preserve peace?“Parting Ways.” President Trump announced a major change to U.S. policies in the Red Sea this week, in the form of a ceasefire with the Yemeni armed group and de facto government Ansar Allah (also known as the Houthis), in which they would cease attacks on U.S. shipping. But the credibility of this commitment is in doubt, as are the implications of U.S. actions for shipping through the Red Sea more broadly. What should we make of this major policy shift? “First Class Problems.” President Trump announced this week that he would be accepting the gift of a luxury jet from the government of Qatar for use as Air Force One during his presidency, which would then be transferred to his foundation shortly before he leaves office in 2029. How big a problem is this? And how can he accept this gift, given that the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause prohibits “accept[ing]...any present…of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State”?In Object Lessons, Tyler delighted in the Financial Times’s trolling of its own “Lunch with the FT,” in which Sam Altman’s kitchen and gross misuse of olive oil becomes a bizarre metaphor for OpenAI. Natalie delighted in some hometown, Pope-town pride (and some Lou Malnati's pizza). Scott delighted in discovering both Dolcezza and their affogato with decaf espresso, a dessert for those who crave flavor and excitement but who also like sleep. And Dan, in utterly failing his wife, delighted in reaping the benefits of her Mother’s Day gift: a little contraption that sits somewhere between wellness hack and medieval torture rack.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman talked with Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, both Senior Fellows at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, to discuss their recent Lawfare article, "Beijing's Changing Invasion Calculus: How China Might Put Taiwan in its Crosshairs." Together they discuss how China might use a blockade, subversion, and nuclear threats to intimidate Taiwan, the United States, and key regional states like Japan. They also discuss how Taipei and Washington might change their approach to reduce the risk of Taiwanese coercion.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cullen O’Keefe, Research Director at the Institute for Law and AI, joins Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at Texas Law and a Contributing Editor at Lawfare, and Renée DiResta, Associate Research Professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown and a Contributing Editor at Lawfare, to discuss a novel AI governance framework. They dive into a paper he co-authored on the concept of "Law-Following AI" or LFAI. That paper explores a near-term future. Imagine AI systems capable of tackling complex computer-based tasks with expert human-level skill. The potential for economic growth, scientific discovery, and improving public services is immense. But how do we ensure these powerful tools operate safely and align with our societal values? That’s the question at the core of Cullen’s paper and this podcast.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump was confident he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks. It’s now been more than three months since Trump’s reelection, and even a short-term ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia remains elusive.Why did Trump fail? And what can really force Russia to stop the war? To answer these and many other questions, Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina spoke with prominent Ukrainian analyst Mykola Bielieskov, who is a Research Fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a Senior Analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In a live conversation on May 9, Lawfare Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Anna Bower, Quinta Jurecic, and Roger Parloff, Lawfare Legal Fellow James Pearce, and Lawfare contributor Preston Marquis to discuss the status of the civil litigation against President Trump’s executive actions, including the order for the release of Rümeysa Öztürk, litigation over ideological deportations, legal challenge to the funding freeze targeting Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and more.You can find information on legal challenges to Trump administration actions here.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From February 22, 2024: As a new report on the intimidation of state and local officeholders from the Brennan Center for Justice points out, “The January 6 insurrection at the Capitol seemed to mark a new peak in extremist intimidation targeting public officials. But it was hardly the only act of political violence to break the period of relative stability that followed the assassinations of the 1960s.” Citing the 2017 shooting of Rep. Steve Scalise, last year’s hammer attack on Paul Pelosi, and many other cases, the report paints a troubling picture of today’s climate of political violence in America. To talk through the report and its implications, Lawfare Senior Editor Quinta Jurecic and Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien sat down with Maya Kornberg, a Research Fellow at the Brennan Center’s Elections and Government Program and one of the report’s authors. They discussed how Maya and her team surveyed so many state and local officials across a number of jurisdictions, the pervasive risks and threats those officeholders face, and how these threats are distorting U.S. democracy as a whole.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From August 27, 2019: On August 5, the Indian government announced that it was revoking “special status” for the states of Jammu and Kashmir, enshrined in Article 370 of its constitution. Since then, the government has instituted a lockdown in the Kashmir valley, hundreds of people have been detained, there have been mass protests, and tens of thousands of Indian troops have been deployed to the region. Professor Christine Fair of Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program sat down with Benjamin Wittes to discuss Article 370, its history, and the current state-of-play in the region.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ben Brooks, a fellow at Harvard's Berkman Klein Center and former head of public policy for Stability AI, joins Kevin Frazier, AI Innovation and Law Fellow at Texas Law and Contributing Editor at Lawfare, to discuss a sudden and significant shift toward open-sourcing leading AI models and the ramifications of that pivot for AI governance at home and abroad. Ben and Kevin specifically review OpenAI’s announced plans to release a new open-weights model.Coverage of OpenAI announcement: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/31/openai-plans-to-release-a-new-open-language-model-in-the-coming-months/To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In recent years, political scientists have given a great deal of attention to “democratic backsliding”—the slow erosion of democracy by aspiring authoritarians. The events of the last several months in the United States—with attacks from the Trump administration on the press, higher education, and any center of power outside the White House—make this research all the more relevant. But the question of how leaders chip away at democracy is only part of the picture. There’s also the question of what things look like from the other side: how can opposition movements resist democratic backsliding, and what techniques are most effective in doing so? Laura Gamboa, an assistant professor of democracy and global affairs at the University of Notre Dame, studies exactly this. Her book, “Resisting Backsliding,” examines case studies from Colombia, Venezuela, and elsewhere to gauge what opposition strategies have the best shot at pushing back against authoritarianism. She sat down with Lawfare Senior Editor Quinta Jurecic to discuss her research and what it might tell us about the state of democracy in America today. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin “The Beard” Wittes and Anastasiia (and Ava) Lapatina to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“A Waltz on Thin Ice.” Weeks after the SignalGate controversy, Mike Waltz is out as National Security Adviser and set to be nominated as U.N. Ambassador. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in for a record fourth high-ranking appointment, though rumors are circulating about just how long he may remain in the position. How big a deal is this switch in leadership? What might its broader implications be?“Resource Extraction.” After months of negotiations, Ukraine and the Trump administration have finally signed a minerals agreement that gives the United States (and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump) a financial stake in Ukraine’s ongoing independence. Is the deal just exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability? Or is there a chance it might contribute to a better outcome for the beleaguered country?“Liquid Assets.” Russia has gotten its liquefied natural gas (or LNG) facility off the ground in the Arctic and is getting ready to export through a shadowfleet of unregistered vessels to eager buyers in China who are undeterred by Western sanctions. What does the situation tell us about the effectiveness of sanctions? And what is Russia up to in the Arctic?In Object Lessons, Ben logrolled Lawfare’s accidentally-on-purpose, Fridays-at-4pm YouTube show, Lawfare Live (like, Like and Subscribe to our channel!). Scott’s getting ready for grilled pizza season and shared tips for how to handle the heat. And turning the temperature down a notch, Nastya recommended Minna Ålander’s substack, Northern Flank Notes, for more uutiset on the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.