The Iran war: Australia joins the "Coalescing of the Partly Willing"

Marcus and Michael get serious about biofuel, with a novel feedstock straight from Defence's Russell Offices. They look at the rapidly expanding Iran War, with multiple US partners getting pulled into a messy patchwork, all desperately trying to quarantine their roles into a defensive effort. They explain the Australian policy to ensure no ADF personnel are involved in attacking Iran, even when they are (hint: closing eyes at critical moments helps). The missile supply issues have intensified, with US production being diverted to the war and other forces' orders being delayed - probably by years. Despite the war apparently being way ahead of schedule, Iran's attacks are continuing, Israel is evacuating citizens away from Hezbollah drones, and US diplomats are leaving Saudi and Turkey. The episode ends with a capability roundup for Australia - pricey Peregrines, artisanal K-9s, maritime precinct sketches and broken submarines.

Marcus and Michael reflect on their wisdom in modifying the Grumpies bunker to hold thousands of litres of diesel and 8 pallets of tinned tomatoes, as the war escalates in the Middle East. They set out three scenarios for the outcome and only one of them - the least likely (spoiler, it involves rose petals and cheering crowds)- is good. Then it's on to examine the desperate contortions of US allies - notably the UK's Keir Starmer and our own PM Albanese, and ministers Marles and Wong - to avoid thinking or talking about our major ally assassinating foreign governments as a new normal. It turns out assassinating people is okay if they are 'bad guys'. And, luckily, we were kept in the dark until afterwards. Phew.

Marcus goes diving to try to find rock bottom in Australian political discourse, but has to come up for air. He at least found the curious case of a Canberra cafe that police found had put up satirical posters & hosts live music (What have we come to as a people???). No arrests or jail time yet....Then it's back to the undersea world of AUKUS progress and the far more concrete, rapid momentum behind Chinese nuclear powered - and armed - submarine production. They managed to build a new shed and other facilities in 3 years (not 16) and seem to have completed 11 nuclear submarines since AUKUS was announced. Ouch. On the Xi Jinping downside though, the riskiest job in the Chinese military turns out to be one he promoted you into: Xi's purges are expanding in his later years in power, and even seasoned Pekinologists are confused.

The Grumpy Strategists boggle at the sheer chutzpah of PM Albanese and State Premier Malinauskas announcing as a triumph spending $30 billion & taking until 2040 to build submarine construction sheds (not actual submarines). At least the premier had the honesty to say the biggest beneficiaries weren't Australians worried about security, they were the South Australians who are to receive this firehose of taxpayer cash. He's right to be boggled. Meanwhile, Australia's leaders across the spectrum from Labor, through the Coalition into One Nation land are outdoing each other in expressing their fear about the potential return of 34 women and children from camps in Syria, while clamping down on the evil of immigration. It's bad form to notice that our health system - and many other industries - depend on migrants....

The Grumpy Strategists pan for gold in 234 pages of dense, incoherent Government paperwork setting out the Albanese Government's revised plans for our nation's defence, and find some rather smelly nuggets. About $3.2 billion dollars is being brought forward to be spent earlier than planned - with a $1.2 billion chunk on more bills for those still distant AUKUS subs. But the overall Defence budget for this next 4 years is being cut by $2.6 billion. Mr Albanese may have smiled at US President Donald Trump, but he's stood strong against pressure to grow defence spending and got Treasury's razor gang in. Canadian PM Carney might make rousing speeches at Davos opposing the Trump Administration, but Mr Albanese acts. It's a great day for independent middle powers! Oh, and the Defence bureaucracy finds a way to insult King Charles.

The Grumpy Strategists look at the recent 'historic" plan for Australia's Defence real estate (okay, a shameless Government asset sale of historic sites to perhaps produce a one-off cash dribble that will be sucked into the AUKUS sub & Hunter frigate budgetary black holes.....). Metrics show the value of this deceased estate approach to Defence properties: flogging off most of the places Defence actually makes contact with Australians in urban areas may provide enough cash for two "Hegseths" - those $1 billion AUKUS suitcases Richard Marles travels with - or pay for 1/5 of a Hunter frigate. Hmmm. The upside is a joint venture for a tasteful new 112 storey bunker. Then it's a dive into the implications for Australia from the marked strategy shift the US has taken between the Oct 2022 & Jan 2026 National Defense Strategies, & a look at the Pentagon's disgraceful disregard of Mr Trump's recent complete and total obliteration of Iran's nuclear program: by gathering forces to....obliterate Iran's nuclear program. It's so hard to get good help.

Marcus & Michael pull together a deal Australian PM Albanese can offer to his great & powerful pal, US President Trump, at his first meeting of the Board of Peace, with lessons in Trump-management even for Vladimir Putin. They review the Australian Government's cunning formula on US actions in the world - 'I don't intend to provide a running commentary on American policy' - and assess how well this text will work as the basis for Australian strategy in the new National Defence Strategy. Then it's a look at US Navy plans to double down on the failed concepts behind both the Zumwalt class warships and the Littoral Combat Ship, before the episode ends with some good news about Australia & renewable power.

What's in a name? The Trumpy Strategists Bunker showcases the direction of Australian policy in 2025, while the Grumpies ponder MAGA tensions from Turning Point USA to Susie Wiles' cry for help in Vanity Fair. On bigger issues, Marcus & Michael look at the responses so far to the murderous Bondi attack, search for highlights in Australian military capability programs and look over the big policy takeaways from 2025. US self harm & a Beijing happy not to interrupt are prominent. Despite impending Christmas feasts and further Aussie cricketing glory, 2025 is ending with disturbing directions.

Well, well, well. the Pentagon's AUKUS review is out - well, actually under lock and key, but apparently its' great news that is about "strengthening" AUKUS. Hard to know how something that was flawlessly on track could need or be strengthened....Australian & US defence and foreign policy heads met in a steamy AUSMIN meeting leaving the rest of us in the dark while they got close. Meanwhile, the jarringly self-congratulatory grievance filled US National Security Strategy is out, bringing back the 19th Century idea of spheres of influence, this time for America, Russia and China. The fragments of remaining commitment to allies & any sense of collective security will be seized on by governments pretending everything is still good, but any engagement with the changed America the NSS describes will look very different. Foreign interference is out unless it's done to US friends & allies, or makes a buck.

Marcus & his fellow SES emergency volunteers hunt for the "Biggest Defence Overhaul in 50 years" somewhere deep in the Brindabellas (WARNING: parts of this episode contain disturbing elements of earlier reforms who appear to have been victims of foul play). Good news - those blockers stopping delivery of stuff for Australia's military - the Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force - won't be able to get away with this for much longer. Details are scarce but the hunt is relentless. Then it's time to chew over awkward facts about declining rates of flying by our Air Force and falling numbers of days at sea from our Navy's shrinking fleet. Far from protecting Australia's sea lanes, our Navy seems mainly designed to protect itself. The Flower Class corvettes of WW2 show an alternative way that works.