Scrambling for Energy Security: Navigating Unstable Energy Supplies Amidst Global Conflict with Chris Keefer

As the war in Iran creates chaos in every domain of life, the already-fragile energy systems of many countries find themselves on the brink of crisis after spending decades investing in natural gas infrastructure, largely supplied by Middle Eastern countries. With projected natural gas prices now spiking across the world, a growing number of nations are re-prioritizing energy security over energy convenience – calling into question the types of electricity generation needed for their citizens as they look to the coming decades. Could this lead to calls for a nuclear power revival in the West, and if so, would Western countries have the capacity to build such complex infrastructure?  In this episode, Nate welcomes back Dr. Chris Keefer, president of Canadians for Nuclear Energy and host of the Decouple podcast, for an impromptu exploration of the possible role of nuclear power for energy security amidst destabilizing supply chains and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Looking back to the energy shocks of the 1970s, Chris highlights how these disruptions reshaped electricity generation globally, including the rapid expansion of nuclear power for several countries, such as Europe, the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and Pakistan. But without the energetic, material, and civic availability of fifty years ago, Chris calls into question whether most free-market based countries would be able to coordinate and effectively respond in the same way today. Ultimately, both Chris and Nate highlight how energy security is reshaping every aspect of our lives as we are forced to adapt to a world of lower material throughput.  Why is nuclear power such a potent piece of energy infrastructure – resulting in cheap, abundant electricity when built correctly? How are the health impacts of nuclear power accidents misunderstood, and do the risks outweigh the benefits? And ultimately, does society today possess the political, financial, technological, and institutional capacity required to build and sustain large-scale nuclear systems?   About Chris Keefer: Dr. Chris Keefer MD, CCFP-EM is the host of the Decouple podcast, where he explores the most pressing questions in energy, climate, environment, politics, and philosophy. Additionally, he is a practicing emergency physician in Toronto, a medical instructor, and a lifelong advocate for social and environmental causes. Chris is also the founder and president of the grassroots non-profit Canadians for Nuclear Energy, as well as the Director of Doctors for Nuclear Energy.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

In this episode, Nate offers a personal reflection on the unfolding geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, beginning with an examination of how disruptions to fossil fuel flows propagate through the global economy, but with a time lag. He points out how many of the world's countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, as well as the potential impact on California's already high gas prices. Nate also contrasts the relative insulation of those in the United States with the far greater exposure of those living in Asia, Europe, and Africa, outlining how second- and third-order effects are already emerging in the form of conservation measures, rationing, and shifting daily behaviors. Alongside this structural analysis, Nate turns to the lived experiences of people navigating changing conditions in real time. He shares stories from listeners on this platform, highlighting how proximity and awareness shape the ways in which individuals and communities respond to the more-than-human predicament. Nate concludes by outlining the biophysical phase shift that is quickly emerging, in which financial systems, material realities, and human expectations begin to diverge and require new forms of adaptation at all scales. How might the impacts of current conflicts ripple into your own community, and on what timeline? Where might we shift our behaviors, mindsets, priorities, or attention to better respond as systemic changes continue to unfold? Have you considered time as one of our fastest-depleting resources? (Recorded March 25th, 2025)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

The conversation around artificial intelligence has been captured by two competing narratives – techno-abundance or civilizational collapse – both of which sidestep the question of who this technology is actually being built for. But if we consider that we are setting the initial conditions for everything that follows, we might realize that we are in a pivotal moment for AI development which demands a deeper cultural conversation about the type of future we actually want. What would it look like to design AI for the benefit of the 99%, and what are the necessary steps to make that possible? In this episode, Nate welcomes back Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, for a wide-ranging conversation on AI futures and safety. Tristan explains how his organization pivoted from social media to AI risks after insiders at AI labs warned him in early 2023 that a dangerous step-change in capabilities was coming – and with it, risks that are orders of magnitude larger. Tristan outlines the economic and psychological consequences already unfolding under AI's race-to-the-bottom engagement incentives, as well as the major threat categories we face: including massive wealth concentration, government surveillance, and the very real risk that humanity loses meaningful control of AI systems in critical domains. He also shares about his involvement in the new documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, and ultimately highlights the highest-leverage areas in the movement toward safer AI development. If we start seeing AI risks clearly without surrendering to despair, could we regain the power to steer toward safer technological futures? What would it mean to design AI around human wellbeing rather than engagement, attention, and profit? And can we cultivate the kind of shared cultural reckoning that makes collective action possible – before it's too late? (Conversation recorded on March 5th, 2025)    About Tristan Harris: Tristan is the Co-Founder of the Center for Humane Technology (CHT), a nonprofit organization whose mission is to align technology with humanity's best interests. He is also the co-host of the top-rated technology podcast Your Undivided Attention, where he, Aza Raskin, and Daniel Barclay explore the unprecedented power of emerging technologies and how they fit into both our lives and a humane future. Previously, Tristan was a Design Ethicist at Google, and today he studies how major technology platforms wield dangerous power over our ability to make sense of the world and leads the call for systemic change. In 2020, Tristan was featured in the two-time Emmy-winning Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma. The film unveiled how social media is dangerously reprogramming our brains and human civilization. It reached over 100 million people in 190 countries across 30 languages. He regularly briefs heads of state, technology CEOs, and US Congress members, in addition to mobilizing millions of people around the world through mainstream media.  Most recently, Tristan was featured in the 2026 documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist, which is available in theaters on March 27th. Learn more about Tristan's work and get involved at the Center for Humane Technology. Join The Human Movement now at HUMAN.MOV Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

This week's Frankly marks a turning point in the work of The Great Simplification. Having spent twenty years articulating the more-than-human predicament, Nate shifts from diagnosis to direction as current events – including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – accelerate the timeline. Today Nate shares a first-pass framework for action and response that's organized around what to do now, which could be applied to various places and at multiple scales.  The framework begins with a personal foundation of inner work: stabilizing the nervous system, recapturing a sense of agency, doing grief work, and cultivating inner calmness as a precondition for effective action. Nate also emphasizes the need to build trusted networks and shared language so that when disruptions arrive, communities aren't starting conversations from scratch. These two layers set the foundation for six broad fronts of intervention: infrastructure and physical stock-and-flow planning, poverty and displacement, ecological defense and regeneration, civic resilience and governance, culture and meaning, and economic transition toward commons-based and post-growth models. Nate stresses that these fronts are interdependent and not contingent on a single scenario – they hold across various possible scenarios for the future.  Nate also introduces a timeline axis of three overlapping phases, which build upon each other to shape the conditions of our future: the current stability window where building is still possible, the period of triage and "bend not break," and the stable attractor that gives direction to the work of the first two. Nate closes with an observation about leadership: that modern systems select for dark triad traits, and that reluctance to lead may itself be a signal worth heeding.  What do you currently do with your time? Which of these six areas of engagement feels the most accessible to you right now? And where in your networks do you see the beginnings of shared language and trust that could support coordinated response? (Recorded March 17th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

The number of couples struggling to become pregnant due to unexplained infertility is growing at an alarming rate across the globe. Alongside this concerning rise is the growing awareness of how endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) – particularly those found in plastics and personal care products – are negatively affecting our hormonal health and overall well-being. If we removed or reduced EDCs from the environments of couples struggling to conceive – dramatically reducing their exposure – is it possible their fertility would be improved?  In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Shanna Swan, an award-winning scientist, and Sian Sutherland, a plastics expert, to discuss Shanna's new Netflix documentary, titled The Plastic Detox, where she enacts a real-world 'plastic intervention' in the lives of six couples struggling with unexplained infertility – with the hope that they are able to get pregnant by the end of the study. Additionally, Sian shares the strategies her organization has been using to increase regulation of EDC-containing products and increase the availability of plastic-free options. Shanna and Sian also discuss how they're bringing their work together for the Plastic Free Babies campaign, which emphasizes why avoiding toxic chemical exposure during the first one-thousand days of a baby's life is so important to preventing generational effects on overall health and fertility.  How might reducing our exposure to EDCs such as phthalates, bisphenols, and parabens improve markers of hormonal health and create ripple effects on our overall quality of life? What is the reasonable responsibility of our governments to test and regulate the safety of products on the market – and are our current institutions fulfilling those expectations? Finally, could addressing the toxins and pollution related to declining fertility lead us down a path of broader systemic change for the entire web of life?    About Dr. Shanna Swan: Dr. Shanna H. Swan, PhD, is an award-winning scientist based at Mt. Sinai (New York, NY). Shanna has published more than 200 scientific papers and has been featured in extensive media coverage around the world. She currently serves as the Director of the Action Science Initiative, a program that conducts rapid interventions and larger, longer-term studies that look at the impacts of environmental pollutants on fertility and related markers of reproductive health. Additionally, Shanna co-authored the 2021 book, Countdown: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race.  Most recently, Shanna was featured in the documentary, The Plastic Detox, where she helped six couples dealing with unexplained fertility reduce their exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in their environment in hopes of getting pregnant. The movie was released on Netflix on March 16th, 2026. Shanna's previous appearances include ABC News, NBC Nightly News, 60 Minutes, CBS News, PBS, BBC, PRI Radio, NPR, Andrew Huberman Lab, and The Joe Rogan Experience.    About Sian Sutherland: Sian Sutherland is Co-founder of A Plastic Planet, one of the most recognized and respected organizations tackling the plastic crisis. More recently, she also co-founded PlasticFree, the first materials and systems solutions platform, empowering the 160m global creatives to design waste out at the source. Sian was awarded the Female Marketer of the Year, Entrepreneur of the Year, and British Inventor of the Year. In 2023 at the UN Plastics Treaty negotiations (INC2), in partnership with Plastic Soup Foundation, A Plastic Planet launched the Plastic Health Council, bringing expert scientists to the negotiating process with the irrefutable proof of plastic chemicals' impacts on human health.  Most recently, in early 2024, Sian co-founded the Foundation for Visionary Science and Art with Alex Adams, working with the scientists to help fund their extraordinary research work on psychedelic therapies. Passionately pro-business and solutions focused, Sian believes the plastic crisis gives mankind a rare gateway to change both materials and systems to create a different future for next generations.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

This week's Frankly marks the second installment of Nate's recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where he poses questions about our shared future. While the first edition posed broad questions about civilizational trajectory, today's episode is prompted by the Iran situation and what happens when geopolitics stops feeling distant and starts arriving as supply chain disruptions, rising prices, fear, and renewed stories about enemies and allies. Nate walks through five questions that move from the practical to the interior. He begins with the gap between what is essential and what is merely familiar in modern life, asking listeners to identify what they depend on before scarcity makes the choice for them. From there, Nate turns inward to examine what the act of assigning blame actually does to our nervous systems and our capacity for response, and poses a larger geopolitical question about whether the collapse of U.S. global power would be net positive or net negative for the world. He then asks listeners to imagine their own town or community in 2050, and what actions they might take now with a few people around them. The episode closes with a reflection on fear as a force that narrows perception and collapses the potential for action, drawing on Frank Herbert's Dune and Nate's own honest response to watching a scenario he had long gamed out begin to move closer to reality. What fears about the future are quietly limiting your ability to act today, and which are actually helping you prepare? Is assigning blame increasing your capacity for meaningful action, or mostly giving shape to your distress? And if your future is going to become more local than you expect, what could you begin to do now with a few people in order to move toward the better end of the distribution? (Recorded March 11th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Nearly every mainstream conversation about humanity's future, our current global crises, and our place in the natural world shares one common theme: the quiet, unquestioned assumption that humans are the apex species on Earth. This belief is so woven into our systems and thought patterns that it rarely gets named, let alone challenged. But what if this invisible worldview – more than fossil fuels, overpopulation, or any single policy failure – is at the very root of the ecological crisis? In this episode, Nate speaks with primatologist and author Dr. Christine Webb about human exceptionalism – the deeply embedded belief that humans are separate from and superior to the rest of nature. Webb argues this worldview is not a universal human trait but rather a product of a few dominant cultures, and that it lies at the root of many of our most pressing global challenges. Drawing on her research with chimpanzees, bonobos, baboons, and other non-human primates, she illustrates how traits once thought to be uniquely human (like tool use, language, empathy, theory of mind, and culture) are in fact shared across species in various forms. Furthermore, Webb advocates for reimagining economic, legal, and educational systems to reflect the intrinsic value of all life. What, exactly, is the meaningful line between "us" (humans) and "them" (other species), and who benefits from drawing it? How are current scientific 'best practices' accidentally reinforcing the myth of human exceptionalism, and what can we do to change them? And finally, if we decenter human exceptionalism, what richness might we stand to gain in community, meaning, and wellbeing? (Conversation recorded on February 17th, 2025)    About Christine Webb: Dr. Christine Webb is a primatologist and Assistant Professor in the Department of Environmental Studies at New York University as a part of the Animal Studies program. Prior to joining NYU, she was a Researcher and Lecturer in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University. Her research follows two intersecting lines of inquiry: understanding the complex dynamics of social life in animals, especially other primates, and examining how the dominant narrative of human exceptionalism has shaped scientific knowledge of the more-than-human world. These two lines of research have cumulated into her 2025 book, The Arrogant Ape: The Myth of Human Exceptionalism and Why It Matters, which argues that human exceptionalism is an ideology that relies more on human culture than our biology, and more on delusion and faith than on evidence.

   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. In this installment, Nate addresses the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and traces the reverberating effects that extend far beyond the conflict itself, starting with what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for a civilization that routes a massive share of its physical economy through a single maritime corridor. Nate begins with the core misperception that oil registers as roughly 3% of GDP by cost, when in reality it underpins 100% of economic activity. Building off of that, he outlines a series of second- and third-order effects that rarely appear in headline coverage, including hidden dependencies on sulfur, liquefied natural gas, and nitrogen fertilizer that connect the Strait of Hormuz to mining operations, European energy security, and global food systems. He also explains the stock-and-flow imbalance between expensive missile interceptors and cheap drone warfare, and the difficult choices facing aging Middle Eastern oil fields if production is forced to shut in. Finally, Nate considers the religious narratives on all three sides of the conflict, where Christian, Jewish, and Shia Islamic end-times frameworks each cast the war as prophetic fulfillment, short-circuiting the feedback loops that normally slow escalation. What does the exposure of a single shipping corridor reveal about the deep energy dependencies of modern civilization? How might the second- and third-order effects of this conflict, from fertilizer to metals to food prices, reshape the global economy in ways that outlast the war itself? And when all parties in a conflict believe they are fulfilling divine prophecy, where do the off-ramps for de-escalation appear? (Recorded March 9th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

In this week's Frankly, Nate begins a new series called "Staying Human," which focuses on what he sees as a precondition for everything else: recovering a sense of personal agency. He opens against the backdrop of Operation Epic Fury and the broader turbulence of 2026, but rather than offering geopolitical analysis, he turns inward toward a question that has been reshaping his theory of change: why does growing awareness of the more-than-human predicament so often produce paralysis rather than action? Nate traces the gap between awareness and agency through several layers. He draws on the science of learned helplessness and self-efficacy research to explain how nervous systems learn whether effort leads to outcomes, and how a digital environment designed to fragment attention can train people to stop investing in their own follow-through. He frames this not as a personal failing but as a predictable consequence of living inside a Superorganism that advertises choice while eroding the conditions for it. Rather than prescribing a program, Nate shares practices he is experimenting with himself: voluntary speed bumps before reaching for a screen, small kept promises that rebuild self-trust, and protecting even one hour of intentional time. He argues that reclaiming agency at the individual level is not sufficient to address our entire predicament, but it is a precondition for the community-level and institutional work required to make the future better than the default. Where in your life has awareness of the world's problems triggered overwhelm or even paralysis? What is one kept promise, however small, that might begin to rebuild your sense of traction? And if agency is a precondition for everything that comes next, what would it look like to treat it as something you practice rather than something you wait to feel?   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power?  In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world. What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)   About Craig Tindale: Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.  He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.    About Michael Every: Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis.  Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners