War Risk Meets Oil Shock: What Breaks Next? | Protect the Pile Episode 9

This week on Protect the Pile, the team breaks down a market being hit from every angle: war risk in the Middle East, oil above $110, rising volatility, and a sharp shift from bullish setups to a far more defensive tape. They explore why investors need to hold narratives loosely, how gold, commodities, and the dollar are behaving, and why AI, private credit, and liquidity stress could all collide if conditions worsen. The message is clear: in a chop bucket, preserving capital matters most. Expect a tactical, no-nonsense conversation on risk, regime change, and what could come next for portfolios.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Hedgeye NexGen is for new and young investors. Hedgeye Macro analyst Ryan Ricci breaks down finance to its simplest form to help you build wealth over the long term.In this episode, Ryan dives back into how inflation is calculated, why oil and energy are such a large component of it, and how the conflict in Iran is going to affect inflation in 2026.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

In this episode, RPK, Sam, David & Neil Howe explain why the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mark a major turning point for markets. They examine the oil shock, rising stagflation risk, and broader policy fallout, arguing that investors need to get more defensive as geopolitical risk collides with elevated asset prices.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on March 5, 2026***Hedgeye Founder and CEO Keith McCullough sits down with Primal Intelligence author Angus Fletcher for a Real Conversation that goes straight to the source of performance: how the human mind actually works under uncertainty.Keith has mentioned Primal Intelligence multiple times on The Macro Show and in The Early Look because the book challenges something most investors take for granted — that better logic automatically leads to better outcomes. Fletcher argues that human intelligence is not primarily built on cold calculation. It is built on narrative, imagination, adaptive thinking, and the ability to simulate possibilities before they happen. In other words, the very capabilities required to navigate volatile markets.Markets are complex adaptive systems driven by human behavior and shifting expectations. You cannot spreadsheet your way through every inflection point. Success requires pattern recognition, dynamic risk management, probabilistic thinking, and the discipline to update without ego. Fletcher’s work explains why some investors thrive under pressure while others freeze.In this conversation, Keith and Angus will explore how story-based cognition shapes decision-making, why imagination is essential for forecasting, and how investors can strengthen their ability to adapt during drawdowns and regime shifts. At a time when algorithms and AI dominate headlines, this discussion focuses on the distinctly human edge — the mental frameworks that drive conviction, resilience, and long-term performance.Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Hedgeye NexGen is for new and young investors. Hedgeye Macro analyst Ryan Ricci breaks down finance to its simplest form to help you build wealth over the long term.In this episode, Ryan helps his producer, Eric, open his first brokerage account and discusses some of the do's and dont's of trading ETFs. This episode is a great starting point for people just getting into trading!Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Markets are pushing new highs, but RPK, Sam and John argue the tape still feels “choppy”—with volatility staying sticky and credit showing early warning signs.  They then unpack the AI buildout: why software’s upside may get pressured as AI agents reshape pricing, and why the real bottleneck could be “stuff” like data centers, chips, and especially power.  Guest Jay Van Sciver lays out what this could mean for industrials and the grid, then they hit transports/tariffs, detour into Tesla/SpaceX structure risk, and close with Q&A on managing earnings grenades through sizing and risk discipline.  Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Go to Hedgeye.com and HedgeyeAM.com for more.Join us for an exclusive discussion with Sam Rahman, Portfolio Manager at Hedgeye Asset Management, as we dig into the accelerating platform shift from the application layer to the agent layer and what it means for software valuations, competitive positioning, and the broader investment landscape. We will walk through key elements of our agent layer thesis — including the three-tier margin cascade that is structurally repricing enterprise software, why the February Cowork selloff is a preview of what's ahead, and how the "content flood" dynamic reshapes the winner/loser map across consumer platforms and media. We will also spend time on Meta's unique positioning — dominant in advertising AI but facing a real bifurcation between business-side strength and consumer-side agent risk — and discuss how to think about software stack winners and losers as the market moves from "agents are theoretical" to "agents are displacing real workflows."Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Hedgeye NexGen is for new and young investors. Hedgeye Macro analyst Ryan Ricci breaks down finance to its simplest form to help you build wealth over the long term.In this episode: CHICKEN WARS! Ryan is joined by Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Bennett Cheer to discuss the state of the casual dining sector, how the American consumer is faring, and to taste test a LOT of chicken sandwiches.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Hedgeye Macro analyst Ryan Ricci breaks down finance to its simplest form to help you build wealth over the long term. In this episode, Ryan does a deep dive on the fundamentals of volatility and how they can create bubbles in assets like we've seen recently in Bitcoin and Gold.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

In this episode, RPK, Sam and David welcome Neil Howe, author of "The Fourth Turning" to discuss the state of markets, currencies, and geopolitics in the context of his groundbreaking theory. They then dive into the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency crash.Protect the Pile is a no-nonsense investment show where we cut through the market noise with a panel of seasoned practitioners who've been playing the game every single day for years—not theorists, but real money managers with skin in the game. Every episode, we bring together battle-tested investors to dissect the current landscape, debate the opportunities and risks, and help you navigate the markets with the Hedgeye framework. It's not Old Wall media, it is real-world experience, focused on one goal: protecting and growing your pile. Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.