US Market Open: Continued energy upside & China's probe hits the risk tone

Iran's IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with; traffic of any ship "to and from" the ports of origin of the allies of the enemies is prohibited from any corridor. Three container ships started to move but were turned back with a warning.China's MOFCOM said it has launched a probe regarding US trade measures and green products; China to investigate US trade practices starting March 27th; probe to conclude within six months but can be extended.Crude holds an upward bias as Iran targets US bases, with weekend risk elevated despite Trump’s comments.Global equities under pressure, initially driven by China's US probe and then further energy upside.DXY firmer amidst geopolitical flare ups, JPY reacts to jawboning.Fixed income continued to be driven by energy; Spanish CPI jumped but failed to move benchmarks.Looking ahead, highlights include University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Mar). Speakers include Fed's Barkin, Daly & Paulson, ECB's Schnabel. Credit Ratings include Fitch Ratings on Switzerland, Moody's on Italy & Spain, Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced a 10-day pause in planned strikes on energy plants to Monday, 6th April 2026 at 8 PM, at the request of the Iranian government, while he added that talks with Iran are going very well.Iran wants the US to dial back demands in the 15-point peace plan before starting any talks, according to WSJ, citing sources, while Iran is open to the possibility of talks but deems the US proposals excessive.Iranian officials were said to be interested in talks despite the announcement of their rejection of the US proposal, while mediators are pressuring Tehran to agree to a meeting with Washington in the coming days, according to Axios.The US is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, according to WSJ.APAC stocks were cautious but off worst levels; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales (Feb), Spanish CPI Prelim. (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Mar), ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations. Speakers include Fed's Barkin, Daly & Paulson, ECB's Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings include Fitch Ratings on Switzerland, Moody's on Italy & Spain, Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Axios reported that the US Pentagon is preparing for massive "final blow" of Iran war that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.Global equities under pressure as the Iran war persists, Tech falters following Google update.DXY is essentially flat, G10s incrementally lower. Fixed income action is dictated by energy movements as numerous BoE and Fed officials await.Crude futures on a firmer footing as geopolitical tensions show no tangible signs of abating.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/21). Speakers include BoE's Taylor & Greene, Fed's Cook, Miran, Jefferson & Barr, BoC's Rogers. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told aides he wants a speedy end to the Iran war and wants to wrap up the conflict in the coming weeks, while he informed advisers that he thinks the conflict is in the final stages.Israeli media reported that US President Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday, even without reaching a final agreement, while a separate report noted the working assumption in Israel is that Trump may announce a ceasefire by this coming Saturday, according to N12 News.Yemen's Houthis are ready to enter the field and take control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to a Tasnim Telegram citing sources.White House confirmed that US President Trump is to hold a Cabinet meeting from 10:00EDT/14:00GMT today.APAC stocks traded cautiously; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK (Apr), Spanish GDP Final (Q4), US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/21), and Norges Bank Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Breeden, Taylor & Greene, Fed's Cook, Miran, Jefferson & Barr, BoC's Rogers. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US special envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on a mechanism which aims for a one-month ceasefire, while this would be very similar to understandings in Gaza and Lebanon, and a 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire.Iran has reportedly received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal, according to AP citing Pakistani officials.Crude slips as an Iranian ceasefire framework emerges.Global equities rise on plans of a Middle East ceasefire; ARM surging after the announcement of the sale of its own chips.USD slightly firmer but off best, AUD lags following a cooler inflation report while EUR unmoved following German Ifo. Fixed income firmer as softer energy prices dictates price action. Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export Prices (Feb), SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Rehn & Kocher, BoE's Greene, Fed's Miran, US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are having tremendous success in Iran and that Iran has no leaders left, while he said the US is talking to the right people and they want to make a deal. Trump said they are in negotiations right now with Iran and that Iran is talking sense.US President Trump said they are going to make a deal with Iran, and Iran gave the US a significant prize/present worth a tremendous amount of money, which is related to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump did not offer any more details.US special envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on a mechanism which aims for a one-month ceasefire, while this would be very similar to understandings in Gaza and Lebanon, and a 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire.United Command of Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson said the US is negotiating with itself, according to IRNA.APAC stocks traded higher; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.9%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation Report (Feb), German Ifo (Mar), US Import/Export Prices (Feb), SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & Lane, BoE's Greene, Fed's Miran, Supply from Italy, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is said to have secretly informed US Envoy Witkoff of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s agreement to negotiate, Al Arabiya reports citing Israeli press citing sources.European equities subdued while PUIG SM surges on EL merger; US equity futures pull back from Monday's highs.DXY finds its footing following recent losses, Antipodeans lag, EUR digests PMIs which indicate slowing growth.Fixed income mixed ahead of a busy speaker slate. Firmer trade across oil as markets digest conflicting reports while attacks continue.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Mar), ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Cipollone, Lane & Nagel, BoE's Pill, SNB's Schlegel & Tschudin, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reiterated that the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, and that they had very good discussions with Iran.Iran denied talks with the US and called it fake news, but said messages had been conveyed in recent days through several friendly countries.Washington set April 9th as the date to end the war on Iran, according to an Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth.US officials said the Strait of Hormuz is dotted with about a dozen Iranian mines, although an IRGC spokesperson said there is no need to mine the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian armed forces have full control.A partial rebound in oil was spurred by a report that some gas-related facilities were hit amid US-Israeli strikes on Isfahan.APAC stocks took their cues from the positive performance on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6%.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Lane & Nagel, BoE's Pill, SNB's Schlegel, Fed's Barr. Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.Crude buoyed amid US-Iran threat exchange, Brent trading above USD 100/bbl. European equities fall further into correction territory; US equity futures weak with ES holding at 6,500.DXY buoyed by geopolitics, AUD hit as metals prices sink.Fixed income falters as energy climbs and pricing turns ever more hawkish, also weighing on metals prices. Looking ahead, highlights include EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Mar), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, Australian Flash PMIs (Mar), Japanese CPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Lane and Fed's Miran. Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.US President Trump posted earlier on Saturday that he is considering "winding down" the Iran war because the US was "getting very close" to meeting its military objectives.APAC stocks were pressured after the US and Iran exchanged threats over the weekend, with US President Trump announcing a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will obliterate Iranian power plants, while Iran responded with its own threats.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 2.0% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Wage Tracker (Q1), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Mar), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, Australian Flash PMIs (Mar), Japanese CPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane. Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk